UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Medic vs Rodriguez Cheat Sheet, 8/1

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez

9400/6800

-

Stackability: Low

-335/ 317

-360/380

Medic is a murderous power puncher, but he can be defensively irresponsible. At his best, D-Rod wins this fight, but one of the biggest issues is that he was just in a Mexican jail for months, so I have no idea how much he has been training. I see this fight being over within the first ten minutes, so I want a piece of it on DK, and while I lean towards Medic for the majority of my lines, I do want some Rodriguez if I was making more than 3 lineups.

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mateusz Rebecki

9600

Kyle Prepolec

Somewhat-Safe

-567 

-165

Rebecki is going to look awesome when this fight starts, but he wears damage horribly. His volume is enough to give him a really high ceiling, but if he doesn't end this fight in the first five minutes, it can get sketchy,

Nina Milosevic

9500

Hailey Cowan

Somewhat-Safe

-400 

-110

Cowan is going to gas in about four minutes, and at that point Nina should dominate. She probably needs a finish to score high enough to win a slate, but she could also just dominate with takedowns and volume once Cowan tires, so she could still score well in a decision too.

Vlasto Cepo

9100

Gilbert Urbina

Somewhat-Safe

-317 

-290

Cepo is a high variance fighter, so he is tough to trust, but he could win this fight quickly. He is an exciting fighter that should score well on DK anytime he wins.

Jovan Leka

8700

Alexander Poppeck

Moderate

-258

120

Leka outweighs Poppeck by 47 lbs, as Poppeck is a Light Heavyweight filling in at Heavyweight, so this should be a dominant fight for Leka. Leka isn't very skilled, and he was the rightful favorite, but the huge size advantage is going to push him even higher. He should score well and dominate this fight with an early KO.

Michael Oliveira

9200

Oban Elliott

Moderate

-355 

-160

Oliveira is built like a Greek statue and has a ton of power. Elliott has struggled when he isn't the more physical fighter, and I expect him to struggle with that here. Oliveira is too patient sometimes, but if he lets his hands go, I see him KOing Elliott.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Bogdan Grad

8600

Dennis Buzukja

Moderate

-194 

200

Grad should be the better fighter everywhere in this matchup. Buzukja made his debut in the UFC as a training partner of Aljo Sterling and Merab, so I figured we would see a lot of wrestling out of him, but he has been strictly a boxer for most of his career. Grad is going to be able to dictate pace, distance, and where the fight takes place, so I see him winning this fairly easily. I don't know if he has the volume to score 90+ in a decision, but he is a safe play in the mid-range.

Robert Valentin

8500

Dusko Todorovic

Moderate

-156 

-125

I like this fight, and I've been flipping back and forth on it all week. Dusko is very chinny, so Valentin may be able to KO him quickly, but the more it extends, the more I see wrestling coming into play. I have more faith in the durability of Valentin, so for now I am siding with him to get the victory by KO.

Noah Gugnon

8000

Milos Janicic

Somewhat-Risky

-120

150

Gugnon has flipped to the favorite in this fight, and while I think there are a ton of question marks with these newcomers, he does seem like he has good striking. The fight is lined at O/U 1.5 rounds so Vegas is expecting a quick fight. This is a fight you'll want a piece of as both are priced reasonably with good finishing upside.

Dusko Todorovic

7700

Robert Valentin

Somewhat-Risky

150 

210

Dusko has realized he has durability issues, so he might look to wrestle more in this matchup. If he can control Valentin on the ground, he'll be able to score well and win the fight; he just needs to avoid getting chinned, which could happen at any point in the fight.

Borislav Nikolic

8400

Mark Vologdin

Somewhat-Risky

-150

160

Nikolic has a massive reach and height advantage against the 5'3 Vologdin. Vologdin marches forward, and although he hasn't won a fight in the UFC yet, he does land around 7 significant strikes per minute, which helps both fighters score on DraftKings. Nikolic is also the more well-rounded fighter, so although his biggest advantage is his reach, he may be able to submit Vologdin if this fight hits the ground.

Dennis Buzukja

7600

Somewhat-Risky

175

340

Dennis looks like he is trying to make improvements, but I don't see them coming quick enough. If he uses his wrestling and BJJ that he had to have picked up when he was working with Ray Longo, he has a chance to win this fight.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jan Blachowicz

7200

Navajo Stirling

Somewhat-Risky

+300 

650

Jan has more experience, and if he uses his wrestling, he should be close to the favorite in this fight. He is slower, smaller, and giving up a lot of speed, but he still has the power, which is always the great equalizer.

Tofiq Musayev

7400

Ludovit Klein

Somewhat-Risky

240 

430

On the feet, this is a close fight, but Klein has much better wrestling. Tofiq is live for a decision victory, but I don't see him getting the finish.

Marcin Tybura

6900

Aleksandar Rakic

Risky

335 

700

Rakic hasn't won a fight in five years, and this is a new weight class, so there are a ton of question marks. Tybura should be able to be more physical in there, but he is giving up a lot of speed.

Oban Elliott

7000

Michael Oliveira

Risky

335 

650

Elliott needs to slow the pace down and wrestle a little bit. If he doesn't wrestle, this could be an issue for him if he stands in the pocket looking to trade power punches.

Gilbert Urbina

7100

Vlasto Cepo

Risky

300 

350

Cepo has limited cardio, so as long as Urbina survives for five minutes, he has a chance here. He isn't great at any one aspect of MMA, so I don't see him having any advantages when both are fresh.

Hailey Cowan

6700

Nina Milosevic

Risky

376 

1100

She has power but limited cardio, which is a death sentence in women's MMA. I don't see this being the fight that gets her first win.

Uros Medic

vs

Daniel Rodriguez

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

13-3-0

Record

20-5-0

3

Knockouts

8

4

Subs

0

-335 

Vegas Odds

317 

Jan Blachowicz

vs

Navajo Stirling

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

29-11-2

Record

10-0-0

9

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

0

270

Vegas Odds

-335

Aleksandar Rakic

vs

Marcin Tybura

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

14-6-0

Record

27-11-0

13

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

7

-355 

Vegas Odds

335 

Dusko Todorovic

vs

Robert Valentin

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

13-6-0

Record

11-6-0

5

Knockouts

11

2

Subs

1

150 

Vegas Odds

-156 

Vlasto Cepo

vs

Gilbert Urbina

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

14-3-0

Record

7-4-0

8

Knockouts

10

3

Subs

1

-317 

Vegas Odds

300 

0

Milos Janicic

vs

Noah Gugnon

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

19-3-0

Record

9-2-0

5

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

0

Vegas Odds

Ludovit Klein

vs

Tofiq Musayev

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,000

24-5-1

Record

23-6-0

8

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

1

-223 

Vegas Odds

240 

Oban Elliott

vs

Michael Oliveira

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

12-4-0

Record

9-0-0

8

Knockouts

10

5

Subs

0

335 

Vegas Odds

-355 

Borislav Nikolic

vs

Mark Vologdin

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

16-2-0

Record

12-4-2

7

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

4

Vegas Odds

Dennis Buzukja

vs

Bogdan Grad

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

12-6-0

Record

15-4-0

6

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

5

Vegas Odds

-194 

Mateusz Rebecki

vs

Kyle Prepolec

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,500

20-5-0

Record

18-10-0

8

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

1

-567 

Vegas Odds

525 

Nina Milosevic

vs

Hailey Cowan

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

8-1-0

Record

7-5-0

2

Knockouts

8

8

Subs

2

-400 

Vegas Odds

376 

Jovan Leka

vs

Alexander Poppeck

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

13-2-0

Record

21-5-0

6

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

1

Vegas Odds