UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Cheat Sheet, 8/9
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez takes place this Saturday live from Las Vegas. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 on ESPN/ESPN+. The Main Event features two top Middleweights as Roman Dolidze uses his unique style to take on a cardio and grappling machine in “Fluffy” Hernandez. This fight is a clash of two completely different styles, and it’ll be interesting to see which one of these two prevails.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Park
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez | 7500/8700 | - | Stackability: Low | 245/ -200 | 380./110. |
| A fun match up towards the top of the Middleweight division as Hernandez looks to use his superior grappling and cardio against the powerful Dolidze. In a three round fight I would give a better chance to Dolidze, but at some point, his 33% takedown defense is going to come into play here as Hernandez is not going to stop trying to wrestle. While Dolidze cardio has looked better, the wrestling is going to drain his gas tank. I'm banking on Hernandez to get the R3/4/5 finish. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Elijah Smith | 9300 | Toshiomi Kazama | Somewhat-Safe | -750 | -280 |
| Walker has a ton of power and Toshiomi is likely going to try to move forward. Smith can wrestle or purely strike and should be able to get the early finish. | |||||
| Julius Walker | 9400 | Rafael Cerqueira | Somewhat-Safe | -700 | -500 |
| Walker had a short notice debut and was able to hang around with a borderline top 15 fighter in the weight class. Cerqueira seems to have really limited durability so I expect Walker to get the finish here. He should be able to control where the fight takes place. | |||||
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 9200 | Eryk Anders | Somewhat-Safe | -590 | 165. |
| Anders is retiring after this fight and we just saw a few weeks ago how that can impact even the great Dustin Poirier. CLD should be able to dominate this fight, and Anders durability has started to fade lately. I wouldn't be surprised if Anders gets caught early in the fight and wasn't able to recover. | |||||
| Uros Medic | 8900 | Gilbert Urbina | Moderate | -430 | -330 |
| Medic puts up a lot of volume, but I think there is a clear tier break after the top 3 this week. At his best Medic can score well on DK but this is a much lower-level fight. Urbina doesn't have good defense, and while he likes to try to make up for that with durability and grit, he is going to be absorbing a lot of strikes from Medic. | |||||
| Steve Erceg | 9100 | Ode Osbourne | Moderate | -550 | -135 |
| Erceg is a few fights removed from a near title victory, but since then he was KO'd by Kai Kara France and lost a close battle to Brandon Moreno. This is a big step down for him, and he likely can win this fight anyway he wants. Osbourne starts extremely fast so for the first few minutes he'll need to stay safe, but after that he should be able to get the finish. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jean Matsumoto | 8500 | Miles Johns | Moderate | -325 | 275. |
| Matsumoto was thrown into the top end of the division too quickly and took a tough lesson against Rob Font in a split decision. I expect him to have more power, cardio, and have enough wrestling to control this fight. Johns is a tough out but I think Matsumoto can do it. | |||||
| Joselyne Edwards | 8600 | Priscila Cachoeira | Moderate | -370 | 185. |
| Edwards is going to need to wrestle to slow down Priscila, which is great for DK. Priscila will also force a pace that will create a lot of scoring opportunities on the feet. Edwards has a high floor in a decision win even if she can't find the finish. | |||||
| Christian Rodriguez | 8400 | Andre Fili | Somewhat-Risky | -245 | 240. |
| Fili has been really hit or miss the last few years and Rodriguez is only getting better. I don't love paying this big of a price for the bet, but at $8400 he is good value. Unless Fili lands a big shot early, I expect Rodriguez to definitely win Rounds 2 and 3 or even find the finish. | |||||
| Cody Brundage | 8200 | Eric McConico | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | -120 |
| This is a weird late notice fight. Brundage is normally someone who gets finished early or can finish a fight early. McConico has looked extremely chinny in the UFC so far and has been KO'd multiple times on the regional scene as well. I'll be on Brundage, but he will fold like a wet paper bag if he faces any adversity. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 7900 | Iasmin Lucindo | Somewhat-Risky | 148 | +1,400 |
| I'm going to take a shot on Hill here, but she is almost 40 years old so it is definitely a cautious pick. Hill at her best could land 100+ significant strikes in a three round fight but I don't think we see that cardio anymore. Luckily for her she has started to wrestle a little more and that might be the key here. This fight will be extremely close as all Hill fights are. | |||||
| Eric McConico | 8000 | Cody Brundage | Somewhat-Risky | 138 | 275. |
| If Brundage can't get the early finish McConico might be able to turn the tides since he has a bunch of late finishes on his resume. I still don't like his ability to take a punch, but I normally always play whoever fights Brundage so maybe I shouldn't stop this week. | |||||
| Andre Fili | 7800 | Christian Rodriguez | Risky | 194 | 600. |
| Fili really disappointed me last time out, getting out struck and then shooting a half ass take down before getting taped out, but he is a veteran and has some key size advantages here. This week is tough in the mid-range for dogs since most of them are around +200 and you'll need to play a few. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 7400 | Gabriella Fernandes | Somewhat-Risky | 350 | 500. |
| The low end this week is really tough because everyone is +300 or worse. Julija has some submission skills and this is going to be a competitive fight. I don't see a finish materializing in this fight so she has one of the higher floors from the value fighters this week. | |||||
| Gilbert Urbina | 7300 | Uros Medic | Somewhat-Risky | 320 | 475. |
| Urbina isn't durable but Medic isn't very durable either. Someone is going to get finished in this fight so this is strictly an upside play. They both are willing to just exchange in the pocket until someone drops. | |||||
| Ode Osbourne | 7100 | Steve Erceg | Risky | 390 | 750. |
| Ode is fast, especially early, and we just saw Steve get caught in Round 1 against Kai Kara France. Ode needs to keep the fight standing, but Steve isn't someone who comes out and shoots nonstop so he may have some early chances to land. | |||||
| Toshiomi Kazama | 6900 | Elijah Smith | Risky | 490 | 800. |
| Kazama has tricky submissions so if Smith isn't careful going to the ground Kazama could snatch up a neck. His durability isn't great, so he has to be able to take a few punches, but if it gets down on the ground, he has a shot. | |||||
| Eryk Anders | 7000 | Christian Leroy Duncan | Risky | 410 | +1,000 |
| Anders is retiring, so I don't want to play him, but at his best he wins this fight. I doubt we get the best version of Anders and he has been chinny lately. I won't be playing him this week but if he wins, I expect it to be a close competitive grind of a fight. | |||||
| Rafael Cerqueira | 6800 | Julius Walker | Risky | #N/A | 700. |
| Walker is durable, Cerqueira is not. Walker should be able to take the fight wherever he wants and he'll have an advantage. Rafael will need a hail mary to win this fight. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Dolidze, Hill, Fili, McConico
Picks and Stats
Roman Dolidze | vs | Anthony Hernandez |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 8 |
245 | Vegas Odds | -300 |
Steve Erceg | vs | Ode Osbourne |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 (1 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-550 | Vegas Odds | +445 |
Iasmin Lucindo | vs | Angela Hill |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-14-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-184 | Vegas Odds | 148 |
Andre Fili | vs | Christian Rodriguez |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 24-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
194 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
Miles Johns | vs | Jean Matsumoto |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 15-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 6 |
250 | Vegas Odds | -325 |
0 | ||
Eryk Anders | vs | Christian Leroy Duncan |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 17-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
410 | Vegas Odds | -590 |
Julius Walker | vs | Rafael Cerqueira |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-700 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
Elijah Smith | vs | Toshiomi Kazama |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
-750 | Vegas Odds | 490 |
Joselyne Edwards | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-370 | Vegas Odds | 280 |
Uros Medic | vs | Gilbert Urbina |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 2 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-430 | Vegas Odds | 320 |
Gabriella Fernandes | vs | Julija Stoliarenko |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-9-2 |
3 | Knockouts | 0 |
3 | Subs | 10 |
-480 | Vegas Odds | 350 |
Cody Brundage | vs | Eric McConico |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 11-6-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-3-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | 138 |