UFC 321 DFS Picks & Lineups: Aspinall vs. Gane Cheat Sheet, 10/25

Published: Oct 24, 2025

Updated: Oct 24, 2025

UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane takes place this Saturday live from Abu Dhabi. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 10:00 AM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN+/FX and the Main Card at 2:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV. This card features two championship bouts. The first MacKenzie Dern takes on Virna Jandiroba in a rematch of top strawweights to crown a new champion after Weili Zhang moved up to 125lbs to try for a second title. The Main Event is Tom Aspinall vs Cyril Gane as the heavyweight division looks to get more active after Jon Jones held it captive for years.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane	9400/6800	-	Stackability: Low	-400/ 300	-275/425.
The heavyweight division was held hostage by Jon Jones for long enough and we finally have a real fight in the division for the belt. Tom Aspinall is a monster with powerful striking and great submission skills, while Cyril Gane is going to look to keep the fight standing and at range. Aspinall has never been more than 7 minutes in a fight in the UFC so if this gets to the later rounds there are a lot of question marks. Aspinall has a huge ceiling, but if this fight gets late, I don't know how he can keep up his volume at his size. I'm taking Aspinall to win by finish.

Expensive Fighters

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Umar Nurmagomedov	9600	Mario Bautista	Somewhat-Safe	-650	215.
This is a tough fight for Umar but his wrestling and striking skills are some of the bests in the division. I don't know if he'll be able to finish Bautista which scares me a little bit for his ceiling but there is also a chance, he scores 110 in a decision with the amount of takedowns he could get.
Jaqueline Amorim	9500	Mizuki Mizuki	Somewhat-Safe	-420	-145
This is a weird fight. Amorim has great submission skills but Mizuki has decent wrestling and ground skills of her own. The biggest question mark in this fight is Mizuki only has 2 fights since 2020 so how is she going to come into this fight and how is she going to respond to the early adversity that Amorim is going to present. I have a bet on Amorim to win by submission in Round 1, but her cardio has been suspect so similar to Aspinall she could fade late.
Hamdy Abdelwahab	9300	Chris Barnett	Somewhat-Safe	-480	+110
Hamby isn't a massive heavyweight but Barnett is only 5'9 so he is going to look huge on Saturday. Barnett has been one of the most entertaining fighters during his UFC run but this is a probably the end of the road for him here, I expect Hamby to win using his wrestling either by finish or a clean 30-27 dominant fight.
Valter Walker	9100	Louie Sutherland	Moderate	-400	-135
Walker has an opponent change after his cancelled fight with Mohammad Usman (Usman popped for steroids) and this may be a better match up for him. Walker has been landing heel hook submissions at an insane rate so expect him to go for it here again, and he might just get it. He'll use his wrestling as well so even in a second-round finish, he'll pay off his price.
Jailton Almeida	8800	Alexander Volkov	Moderate	-205	-175
I don't love Almeida to win this fight, but if he wins this fight, he'll have to land a bunch of takedowns. He has a huge ceiling in a win so he makes a great tournament play, but in cash games I'm not sure I trust him to win the fight.

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Mackenzie Dern	8600	Virna Jandiroba	Moderate	-154	180.
This is another five round and both of the fighters in it have huge upside since they both wrestle, and Dern throws a lot of wild strikes. Dern is a better grappler, Virna is a better wrestler, and on the feet, I think this is a really close fight. I'm going to have one of these fighters in almost all of my lineups with Dern in more of them.
Virna Jandiroba	7600	Mackenzie Dern	Moderate	126	450.
Virna at her price is one of the best plays on the board and she probably gets more takedowns than Dern. Dern will be able to reverse positions so it will stay on the ground for a while. I expect the loser of this fight to still score 45-50 pts.
Jose Delgado	8500	Nathaniel Wood	Somewhat-Risky	-158	125.
Delgado has power, and although Wood hasn't been KO'd recently, he doesn't look like he is taking damage well. If Delgado keeps this fight standing, I expect him to be able to drop Wood and hopefully find the finish.
Azamat Murzakanov	8300	Aleksandar Rakic	Somewhat-Risky	-112	175.
This is another close fight in the mid-range where there are a lot of questions. Azamat is undefeated but sometimes starts slow so his lack of volume can crush you on DraftKings, but his ability to finish the fight is some of the best in the division. Rakic is on his second fight back since a massive layoff due to leg injury and the two opponents they gave him were Jiri and Ankalaev since he made his return so it is tough to really gauge his level. I think if someone wins by KO it will be Azamat so because of that I'm picking him here.
Ludovit Klein	8400	Mateusz Rebecki	Somewhat-Risky	-140	250.
This fight is tough for me to pick a winner but I'm going with Klein. He has a massive reach advantage and he should be able to land more strikes, but the more powerful ones might be coming from Rebecki. I think Klein wins it but I put his odds of getting a finish only around 20-25% and he won't score well unless he does get the finish.
Mateusz Rebecki	7800	Ludovit Klein	Somewhat-Risky	114	600
This fight is going to be a striking fight, but with the favorite at +1000 to win inside the distance he doesn't make sense to play. Vera normally starts slow but he admitted this week he has been working on it. I think he should be able to win Rounds 2/3 and get the decision but his ceiling isn't as high as other fighters.
Quillan Salkilld	8100	Nasrat Haqparast	Risky	-110	350.
This is a fight that I think goes to decision so I am not really looking for either of them in my lineups, the problem is at their price they fit into a lot of lineups. I think Salkilld has a better chance to finish and Nasrat has been lower volume as of late so I'm taking a chance on the fighter with less experience here.

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Alexander Volkov	7400	Jailton Almeida	Somewhat-Risky	164	275.
Volkov is one of my favorite underdogs this week, but he is going to be in a war for the early portion of this fight. He is going to have to deal with a lot of takedowns coming his way, but his 30 lb. weight advantage could make him dangerous once Almeida starts to slow down. I'll also be looking to live bet this fight if Almeida looks like he is gassed after the first round.
JunYong Park	7200	Ikram Aliskerov	Somewhat-Risky	186	400.
Park is similar to Volkov where he needs to survive round 1 to win this fight, but we've seen him make a career out of it. Part of his problem is he takes so much damage early in fights that the optics for the judges don't look good if he continues to bleed into the later rounds. He isn't better anywhere for the first five minutes, but cardio is the equalizer here.
Louie Sutherland	7100	Valter Walker	Risky	300	500.
There is a big drop off here as the lines go from sub +200 to +300 and more for these last couple of fighters. Sutherland might be the better striker here but he's way behind with the takedowns and grappling. Walker likes to go for heel hooks which could lead to him ending up on the bottom in a scramble if Sutherland can get out of them. This fight could get greasy as neither one of them are high level heavyweights.
Chris Barnett	6900	Hamdy Abdelwahab	Risky	350	+350
Barnett is going to throw some wild attacks at Hamby but will any of them land is the question. He is going to get outwrestled here, and his reach makes it hard for him to get on the inside to land strikes. I'm picking Hamdy here to get it done, probably inside the distance.
Mitch Raposo	7000	Azat Maksum	Risky	320	800.
Raposo is a good wrestler but he doesn't keep his opponents down so even if both of these fighters land a few takedowns Azat will win the fight. I don't think Raposo gets KO'd or subbed so he could score a handful of points which could be useful in double up contests, but I don't want him on my tournament teams.
Mizuki Mizuki	6700	Jaqueline Amorim	Risky	320	900
Mizuki is the hardest fighter for me to figure out this week. She has a decent record but she only had 2 fights since 2020 so even with some Instagram stalking I couldn't figure out much about her training camps. She used to train with Aljo Sterling and Merab so she has decent wrestling, but I don't know how she'll fair here facing a much better grappler. Maybe she can make this a striking battle and tire Amorim out, but I don't have much confidence.
Mario Bautista	6600	Umar Nurmagomedov	Risky	440	+1,200
Bautista is one of the better fighters on the card, but Umar is the clear #1 contender in this division. Umar is going to outwrestle Bautista early, and although Bautista is a good striker he doesn't have the one-shot power that I think he would need to beat Umar.

Sample Lineup

A screenshot of a computer screen
AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Live Dogs

Gane, Jandiroba, Volkov, Rakic, Rebecki

Picks and Stats


Tom Aspinall	vs	Ciryl Gane
$9,400	DFS Salary	$6,800
Record: 15-3-0	Record	Record: 13-2-0
12	Knockouts	6
3	Subs	3
-400	Vegas Odds	+300

Virna Jandiroba	vs	Mackenzie Dern
$7,600	DFS Salary	$8,600
Record: 22-3-0	Record	Record: 15-5-0
1	Knockouts	0
14	Subs	8
126	Vegas Odds	-154

Umar Nurmagomedov	vs	Mario Bautista
$9,600	DFS Salary	$6,600
Record: 18-1-0	Record	Record: 16-2-0
2	Knockouts	3
7	Subs	6
-650	Vegas Odds	440

Alexander Volkov	vs	Jailton Almeida
$7,400	DFS Salary	$8,800
Record: 38-11-0	Record	Record: 22-3-0
24	Knockouts	8
4	Subs	13
164	Vegas Odds	-205

Aleksandar Rakic	vs	Azamat Murzakanov
$7,900	DFS Salary	$8,300
Record: 14-5-0	Record	Record: 15-0-0
9	Knockouts	11
1	Subs	1
-108	Vegas Odds	-112
	0
Nasrat Haqparast	vs	Quillan Salkilld
$8,100	DFS Salary	$8,100
Record: 18-5-0	Record	Record: 9-1-0
10	Knockouts	3
0	Subs	3
-110	Vegas Odds	-110

Ikram Aliskerov	vs	JunYong Park
$9,000	DFS Salary	$7,200
Record: 16-2-0	Record	Record: 19-6-0
7	Knockouts	5
5	Subs	6
-235	Vegas Odds	186

Ludovit Klein	vs	Mateusz Rebecki
$8,400	DFS Salary	$7,800
Record: 23-5-1	Record	Record: 20-3-0
9	Knockouts	9
8	Subs	7
-140	Vegas Odds	114

Valter Walker	vs	Louie Sutherland
$9,100	DFS Salary	$7,100
Record: 14-1-0	Record	Record: 10-3-0
6	Knockouts	8
4	Subs	0
-400	Vegas Odds	300

Nathaniel Wood	vs	Jose Delgado
$7,700	DFS Salary	$8,500
Record: 21-6-0	Record	Record: 10-1-0
8	Knockouts	6
5	Subs	4
128	Vegas Odds	-158

Hamdy Abdelwahab	vs	Chris Barnett
$8,900	DFS Salary	$6,900
Record: 6-1-0 (1 NC)	Record	Record: 23-9-0
5	Knockouts	18
0	Subs	0
-175	Vegas Odds	350

Azat Maksum	vs	Mitch Raposo
$9,200	DFS Salary	$7,000
Record: 15-2-0	Record	Record: 9-3-0
4	Knockouts	4
6	Subs	3
-430	Vegas Odds	320

Jaqueline Amorim	vs	Mizuki
$9,500	DFS Salary	$6,700
Record: 10-1-0	Record	Record: 15-6-0
2	Knockouts	0
8	Subs	9
-420	Vegas Odds	+350