MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 285 Jones vs Gane Top DFS Picks
UFC 285 Jones vs Gane kicks off with the Early Prelims at 5:30 PM on ESPN+ followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 PM.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 285 Jones vs Gane
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane | 8400/7800 | - | Stackability: Low | -155/+135 | +200/+375 |
| Jon Jones makes his heavyweight debut in his return after three years away from the sport so there are ton of question marks here. Prime Jon Jones outwrestles Gane easily, but before his three year layoff Jones had some pretty lackluster performances and at times looked downright disinterested. Both Jones and Gane will land 100+ strikes if the fight goes to decision and I'm expecting Jones to try to mix in the wrestling some as well. Both of these fighters are viable in cash games and GPPs. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bo Nickal | 9600 | Jamie Pickett | Somewhat-Safe | -1400 | -700 |
| The best American wrestling prospect in the UFC, Bo Nickal is an absolute monster on the mat. Nickal is only 3-0 in his pro career and this is his toughest test, but I'm expecting him to get takedowns early and often. Nickal is going to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate, but he has the ability to outscore everyone via early finish or decision so the ownership is warranted. | |||||
| Valentina Shevchenko | 9400 | Alexa Grasso | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | -135 |
| The co-main event has Valentina facing off against primarily a boxer in Alexa Grasso. Valentina has a huge grappling advantage here, and I'm expecting her to come out and make a statement after being called out by Erin Blanchfield. | |||||
| Ian Garry | 9300 | Song Kenan | Somewhat-Safe | -800 | -225 |
| This fight is setup perfectly for Garry to display his striking skills. Song was knocked out the last time we saw him in the octagon two years ago and I'm expecting the same thing to happen here. Garry could wrestle if he wants because he does have the advantage there, but I think he's more likely to go for the highlight reel KO. | |||||
| Farid Basharat | 9100 | Da'Mon Blackshear | Moderate | -410 | +160 |
| Basharat is well rounded but I expect him to keep this fight standing here as Blackshear is a submission specialist on the ground. Farid does throw a lot of volume, but Blackshear is durable so this could be one of the few fights that reaches the judges scorecards. I'll be underweight to the field on this fight as a whole, even though I think Farid should be able to coast to a win here. | |||||
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9200 | Geoff Neal | Moderate | -500 | -200 |
| Rakhmonov is a huge favorite but Neal is definitely a step up in competition from what he has seen. Even if Rakhmonov has some adversity early against Neal I think he eventually gets the fight to the ground and utilizes his submission game. On a normal card Rakhmonov would be $9600 but this is a weird card with a ton of huge favorites so for a $400 discount he'll be highly owned. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 8600 | Jalin Turner | Moderate | -220 | +135 |
| Gamrot needs to wrestle here to get the win and I expect him to come out and get that done. Turner is talented and has been on a run, but Gamrot is a major step up in competition for him here and I'm not sure his takedown defense is enough to stop Gamrot from getting the fight where he wants it. | |||||
| Dricus Du Plessis | 8700 | Derek Brunson | Moderate | -240 | -135 |
| Driscus is a talented well rounded fighter and has the power to KO the nearly 40 year old Brunson Saturday night. Driscus hasn't faced many takedown attempts in the UFC, but Brunson is going to be shooting for takedowns from the minute the fight starts so we will learn early how his defense holds up. | |||||
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 8200 | Julian Marquez | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +250 |
| This fight should be fireworks for as long as it lasts, and I think Barriault is going to be the one standing when the fight ends. Neither of these fighters really try to wrestle, and both have terrible striking defense and aren't overly accurate with their strikes so I'm expecting a sloppy fight that ends in someone getting knocked out. | |||||
| Cody Garbrandt | 8500 | Trevin Jones | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +105 |
| The former champ takes a major step back in competition as he returns to the 135 lb weight class. Cody has better striking, footwork, defense, and wrestling but his chin is always going to be a question and if Trevin Jones does anything its throw heat. Cody doesn't throw a ton of volume, but Trevin throws even less so if this fight goes to a decision I don't think either of them score well so Cody is KO or bust here. | |||||
| Viviane Araujo | 7900 | Amanda Ribas | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +400 |
| Araujo needs to avoid the takedowns and she should be able to dominate this fight on the feet. Ribas has shown to be a little chinny, so even though Araujo doesn't have many finishes on her record I think she has an outside chance to get that done here. | |||||
| Amanda Ribas | 8300 | Viviane Araujo | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +400 |
| If Ribas wins this fight its because of her wrestling so she'll be racking up a bunch of points. The mid range this week outside of the title fight doesn't have many fighters who would score well in a decision, but Ribas has a floor of 75-80 in a win which makes her one of the "safer" plays for cash games. | |||||
| Jalin Turner | 7600 | Mateusz Gamrot | Risky | +185 | +300 |
| Turner has a 7 inch reach advantage on the feet so the jab should be there for him to try to control range, and if he can keep it standing he has a real clear path to victory. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Derek Brunson | 7500 | Dricus Du Plessis | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +500 |
| Brunson has a wrestling game that few possess at 185 lbs, but he has always been chinny. If he wins this fight it's by staying out of harms way and getting the fight to the mat. He scored nearly 50pts in a second round loss last time out so if he comes out with that pace he could be the underdog that breaks the slate in a win. | |||||
| Mana Martinez | 7400 | Cameron Saaiman | Somewhat-Risky | +210 | +500 |
| Saaiman has the volume in this matchup, but Martinez has some pop in his hands. Mana has four knockdowns in his last two fights which is insane considering he's only 1-1 and the win was a split decision. | |||||
| Esteban Ribovics | 7200 | Loik Radzhabov | Risky | +200 | +330 |
| Ribovics is explosive and could end this fight early, but if he can't get Loik out of there it's going to be a long grind against him. | |||||
| Jessica Penne | 7300 | Tabatha Ricci | Risky | +240 | +800 |
| Penne is a veteran so she may be able to pull off some savvy grappling, but at nearly 40 Penne's best days are behind her. I won't be using her in any lineups. | |||||
| Geoff Neal | 7000 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | Risky | +400 | +700 |
| Neal is the best fighter Shavkat has fought and if Neal gets some early confidence he is live to pull of the upset. His best chance is to keep the fight standing, but no one has been able to do that yet against Rakhmonov. | |||||
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 7100 | Farid Basharat | Risky | +330 | +650 |
| Blackshear is submission or bust, and while Basharat normally wrestles he may just opt to keep it standing here. It's an uphill battle but at least this is a dog who has an advantage somewhere, even if it's only slight. | |||||
| Alexa Grasso | 6800 | Valentina Shevchenko | Risky | +500 | +1200 |
| Grasso should be able to survive long enough to score some points which makes her a decent punt in cash games in order to fit in the -500+ favorites. | |||||
| Jamie Pickett | 6600 | Bo Nickal | Risky | +950 | +1400 |
| Pickett is going to be the lowest owned fighter on the slate which is normally something I like to target, but he's in for an uphill battle vs Nickal. I don't think Pickett wins this fight even 10% of the time, so I'll be fading him in all of my lineups. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Gane, Brunson, Araujo, Marquez
Stats and Picks
Jon Jones | vs | Ciryl Gane |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 26-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Alexa Grasso |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 23-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-600 | Vegas Odds | +500 |
Geoff Neal | vs | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 8 |
+400 | Vegas Odds | -500 |
Mateusz Gamrot | vs | Jalin Turner |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 21-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Bo Nickal | vs | Jamie Pickett |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 3-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 9 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-1400 | Vegas Odds | +850 |
0 | ||
Cody Garbrandt | vs | Trevin Jones |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-9-0 (1 NC) |
10 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Derek Brunson | vs | Dricus Du Plessis |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 23-8-0 | Record | Record: 18-2-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 10 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
Viviane Araujo | vs | Amanda Ribas |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Julian Marquez | vs | Marc-Andre Barriault |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
Ian Garry | vs | Song Kenan |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 8 |
-700 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
Mana Martinez | vs | Cameron Saaiman |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
+210 | Vegas Odds | -260 |
Jessica Penne | vs | Tabatha Ricci |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
+240 | Vegas Odds | -285 |
Da’Mon Blackshear | vs | Farid Basharat |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 12-4-1 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 1 |
8 | Subs | 5 |
+340 | Vegas Odds | +450 |
Esteban Ribovics | vs | Loik Radzhabov |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
5 | Subs | 5 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
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