We’ve reached the final event of the UFC year. At least they stacked it with fights and twelve survived. They’re pretty good matchups, too! Much like last week, it will be a challenge to pick winners. There’s no shortage of dogs and I would be fine with you leaving $1K+ on the table.


Main Event
Stephen Thompson vs Geoff Neal7800/8400-Stackability: Safe+100/ -120+230/+150
This is a fun main event between the old guard and the new. Thompson has been in there with the best at 170. Neal has been slowly increasing his competition level, while dominating. There are two pivot points to this fight. First, can Neal wait for his shots while not burning his gas tank? He'll need to if he wants to win and not get out-pointed. The second is whether Thompson can avoid the hard counter opportunites that have been an issue with his in and out style at times. It's not a super high-paced stack but could see the scorecards.
Tafon Nchukwi9400Jamie PickettSomewhat-Safe-350-180
This is always my least comfortable spot: a newcomer with huge potential going off as a big favorite. Tafon has crazy power but is very light on cage time. Pickett is a marginal UFC fighter, having gone 1-2 on DWCS. Tafon will also be very highly owned with no other safe favorites.
Christos Giagos9300Carlton MinusSomewhat-Safe-325#N/A
Giagos is priced up as the veteran and better athlete. His biggest flaw is potentially enhanced by him coming in fight week as a late replacement, however: he gasses without fail in the second round behind volume wrestling. The plus side here, is that Minus has only won fights in the Alaska FC promotion. Barring a total collapse by Giagos he should at least take two of three rounds.
Marlon Moraes9000Rob FontModerate-150+215
The shine has really come all the way off Moraes after his last loss to Cody Sandhagen. Font can do some of the same things that Sandhagen did to give him trouble. What Font doesn't have is Cory reach and insane chin. If Moraes hits you clean you go down. At this price he's unlikely to be high owned.
Anthony Pettis9200Alex MoronoRisky-230+240
I don't want any part of Pettis at this price. He's likely to get out-volumed and out-wrestled. The catch is that Morono isn't a dangerous finisher so Pettis will have chances to save himself with crazy stuff like he does from time to time.
Jimmy Flick8700Cody DurdenModerate-150+110
Flick is a deserving favorite in a somewhat close fight. I favor him more since Durden has now had to make a new lower weight twice in two weeks.
Greg Hardy8500Marcin TyburaSomewhat-Risky-125+130
Hardy could expose the chin issues Tybura was having for a stretch a few fights back. It's no lock, though. Tybura has decent striking and sound wrestling, which could still be an issue for Hardy.
Michel Pereira8300Khaos WilliamsSomewhat-Risky-125+180
Wildman Pereira is a tough fighter to project. He's huge for 170, powerful, and creative as anyone you'll see. He's also known for taking undue risks, gassing, and getting DQ'd. I think he's over-owned on top of that.
Antonio Arroyo8900Deron WinnSomewhat-Risky-165+145
If Arroyo can find ways to get up quickly when taken down he should be able to win this fight. Winn hasn't been able to hold many opponents down and is all too willing to get into firefight's with much longer men. Firefight's he's been losing. Arroyo is a bit of an unknown but we do know his kicks are savage.
Taila Santos8200Gillian RobertsonRisky-105+333
Santos has one good UFC performance and one bad. Robertson is a big test for anyone. She does have a reputation for quiting if you can hit her in the face, however. Santos could pull off the upset.
Gillian Robertson8000Taila SantosRisky-115+280
Gillian's not shy about her gameplan: smoothering wrestling and solid submissions. Santos had trouble with both in her UFC debut against Mara Borella.
Khaos Williams7900Michel PereiraSomewhat-Risky+105+155
We've only seen minutes of Williams in the Octagon so we don't quite know if he's for real. What is real is his power. He's hurt and finished two UFC vets in two fights. Pereira is another big challenge but someone who's beatable. Mainly if he gasses. I like Williams by decision for a value bet.
Rob Font7200Marlon MoraesSomewhat-Risky+130+365
Font is making his long awaited return after some poor injury luck. He's probably the better technical striker and has some power to back it up. The most likely outcome is Font winning by decision once Moraes gas tank runs out (IF Font survives the early going).
Alex Morono7000Anthony PettisSomewhat-Risky+190+540
Morono will have not trouble doing what he does best: pourinig on volume and grappling effectively. What he needs to stay safe from is the crazy single strike that Pettis seems to uncork. Morono does have a suspect chin.
Deron Winn7300Antonio ArroyoRisky+145+450
Winn will have need to have found improvements to his striking defense, cardio, and mat control to have a UFC career. It's a lot but Winn is young and trains at a good camp. Maybe he can still make strides. There's potential for volume wrestling points here.
Marcin Tybura7700Greg HardyRisky+105+325
Tybura is in danger for the first half of the fight. Hardy is long, fast, and fairly powerful. Where Tybura could shine is the wrestling. We haven't seen Hardy's takedown defense tested lately. He could win a gridning decision or even submit the raw Hardy.
Cody Durden7500Jimmy FlickRisky+130+260
Durden seems to be getting over-looked by many this week. It's a close enough fight to merit some leverage interest.
Jamie Pickett6800Tafon NchukwiRisky+290+473
Pickett is the more season fighter. He's the kind of guy that will need to let the up and comer tire himself out and win the late rounds. That's a scary proposition against Nchukwi.



Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)


DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
 Total Salary$49,200  Pivot Salary-

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)


DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
 Total Salary$49,800  Pivot Salary-

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Williams +105, Font +130, Morono +195, 

Favorite Props: Kianzad WBD +185

Long Shot: Robertson via SUB +310

Live Dogs: Thompson, Morono, Williams, Font, Tybura, Kianzad, Winn


Stats & Picks: 


Stephen ThompsonvsLoading...
$7,800DFS SalaryLoading...
Record: 15-4-1Record 
7 KO/TKO (47%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (62%)
+105Vegas OddsLoading...
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Jose AldovsMarlon Vera
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 28-7-0RecordRecord: 16-6-1
8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts17 KO/TKO (61%)
-145Vegas Odds+135
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
Michel PereiravsKhaos Williams
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 24-11-0 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 11-1-0
6 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (55%)
-115Vegas Odds+105
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
Marlon MoraesvsRob Font
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 23-7-1RecordRecord: 17-4-0
10 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (43%)
-142Vegas Odds+132
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
Marcin TyburavsGreg Hardy
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 20-6-0RecordRecord: 7-2-0 (1 NC)
7 KO/TKO (41%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (35%)
+110Vegas Odds-120
4/10Lineup Pool24/10
Anthony PettisvsAlex Morono
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 23-10-0Record
Record: 18-6-0 (1 NC)
 Knockouts11 KO/TKO (48%)
-215Vegas Odds+195
2/10Lineup Pool6/10
Sijara EubanksvsLoading...
$8,800DFS SalaryLoading...
Record: 7-5-0Record 
5 KO/TKO (28%)Knockouts 
6 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs 
-155Vegas OddsLoading...
3/10Lineup Pool4/10
Deron WinnvsAntonio Arroyo
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 6-2-0RecordRecord: 9-3-0
2 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (67%)
+145Vegas Odds-165
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
Gillian RobertsonvsTaila Santos
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 9-4-0RecordRecord: 16-1-0
4 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (63%)
-110Vegas Odds+100
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
Tafon NchukwivsJamie Pickett
$9,400DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 4-0-0RecordRecord: 11-4-0
1 KO/TKO (11%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (100%)
-350Vegas Odds+290
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
Jimmy FlickvsCody Durden
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 15-5-0RecordRecord: 11-2-1
8 KO/TKO (73%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
-150Vegas Odds+130
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
Christos GiagosvsCarlton Minus
$9,300DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 17-8-0Record
Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC)
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (41%)
13 SUBMISSIONS (87%)Subs
-320Vegas Odds+260
6/10Lineup Pool2/10