We’ve reached the final event of the UFC year. At least they stacked it with fights and twelve survived. They’re pretty good matchups, too! Much like last week, it will be a challenge to pick winners. There’s no shortage of dogs and I would be fine with you leaving $1K+ on the table.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Stephen Thompson vs Geoff Neal | 7800/8400 | - | Stackability: Safe | +100/ -120 | +230/+150 |
| This is a fun main event between the old guard and the new. Thompson has been in there with the best at 170. Neal has been slowly increasing his competition level, while dominating. There are two pivot points to this fight. First, can Neal wait for his shots while not burning his gas tank? He'll need to if he wants to win and not get out-pointed. The second is whether Thompson can avoid the hard counter opportunites that have been an issue with his in and out style at times. It's not a super high-paced stack but could see the scorecards. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 9400 | Jamie Pickett | Somewhat-Safe | -350 | -180 |
| This is always my least comfortable spot: a newcomer with huge potential going off as a big favorite. Tafon has crazy power but is very light on cage time. Pickett is a marginal UFC fighter, having gone 1-2 on DWCS. Tafon will also be very highly owned with no other safe favorites. | |||||
| Christos Giagos | 9300 | Carlton Minus | Somewhat-Safe | -325 | #N/A |
| Giagos is priced up as the veteran and better athlete. His biggest flaw is potentially enhanced by him coming in fight week as a late replacement, however: he gasses without fail in the second round behind volume wrestling. The plus side here, is that Minus has only won fights in the Alaska FC promotion. Barring a total collapse by Giagos he should at least take two of three rounds. | |||||
| Marlon Moraes | 9000 | Rob Font | Moderate | -150 | +215 |
| The shine has really come all the way off Moraes after his last loss to Cody Sandhagen. Font can do some of the same things that Sandhagen did to give him trouble. What Font doesn't have is Cory reach and insane chin. If Moraes hits you clean you go down. At this price he's unlikely to be high owned. | |||||
| Anthony Pettis | 9200 | Alex Morono | Risky | -230 | +240 |
| I don't want any part of Pettis at this price. He's likely to get out-volumed and out-wrestled. The catch is that Morono isn't a dangerous finisher so Pettis will have chances to save himself with crazy stuff like he does from time to time. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jimmy Flick | 8700 | Cody Durden | Moderate | -150 | +110 |
| Flick is a deserving favorite in a somewhat close fight. I favor him more since Durden has now had to make a new lower weight twice in two weeks. | |||||
| Greg Hardy | 8500 | Marcin Tybura | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +130 |
| Hardy could expose the chin issues Tybura was having for a stretch a few fights back. It's no lock, though. Tybura has decent striking and sound wrestling, which could still be an issue for Hardy. | |||||
| Michel Pereira | 8300 | Khaos Williams | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +180 |
| Wildman Pereira is a tough fighter to project. He's huge for 170, powerful, and creative as anyone you'll see. He's also known for taking undue risks, gassing, and getting DQ'd. I think he's over-owned on top of that. | |||||
| Antonio Arroyo | 8900 | Deron Winn | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +145 |
| If Arroyo can find ways to get up quickly when taken down he should be able to win this fight. Winn hasn't been able to hold many opponents down and is all too willing to get into firefight's with much longer men. Firefight's he's been losing. Arroyo is a bit of an unknown but we do know his kicks are savage. | |||||
| Taila Santos | 8200 | Gillian Robertson | Risky | -105 | +333 |
| Santos has one good UFC performance and one bad. Robertson is a big test for anyone. She does have a reputation for quiting if you can hit her in the face, however. Santos could pull off the upset. | |||||
| Gillian Robertson | 8000 | Taila Santos | Risky | -115 | +280 |
| Gillian's not shy about her gameplan: smoothering wrestling and solid submissions. Santos had trouble with both in her UFC debut against Mara Borella. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Khaos Williams | 7900 | Michel Pereira | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +155 |
| We've only seen minutes of Williams in the Octagon so we don't quite know if he's for real. What is real is his power. He's hurt and finished two UFC vets in two fights. Pereira is another big challenge but someone who's beatable. Mainly if he gasses. I like Williams by decision for a value bet. | |||||
| Rob Font | 7200 | Marlon Moraes | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +365 |
| Font is making his long awaited return after some poor injury luck. He's probably the better technical striker and has some power to back it up. The most likely outcome is Font winning by decision once Moraes gas tank runs out (IF Font survives the early going). | |||||
| Alex Morono | 7000 | Anthony Pettis | Somewhat-Risky | +190 | +540 |
| Morono will have not trouble doing what he does best: pourinig on volume and grappling effectively. What he needs to stay safe from is the crazy single strike that Pettis seems to uncork. Morono does have a suspect chin. | |||||
| Deron Winn | 7300 | Antonio Arroyo | Risky | +145 | +450 |
| Winn will have need to have found improvements to his striking defense, cardio, and mat control to have a UFC career. It's a lot but Winn is young and trains at a good camp. Maybe he can still make strides. There's potential for volume wrestling points here. | |||||
| Marcin Tybura | 7700 | Greg Hardy | Risky | +105 | +325 |
| Tybura is in danger for the first half of the fight. Hardy is long, fast, and fairly powerful. Where Tybura could shine is the wrestling. We haven't seen Hardy's takedown defense tested lately. He could win a gridning decision or even submit the raw Hardy. | |||||
| Cody Durden | 7500 | Jimmy Flick | Risky | +130 | +260 |
| Durden seems to be getting over-looked by many this week. It's a close enough fight to merit some leverage interest. | |||||
| Jamie Pickett | 6800 | Tafon Nchukwi | Risky | +290 | +473 |
| Pickett is the more season fighter. He's the kind of guy that will need to let the up and comer tire himself out and win the late rounds. That's a scary proposition against Nchukwi. | |||||
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Nchukwi | Pickett | $9,400 | ||||
| Neal | Thompson | $8,400 | ||||
| Thompson | Neal | $7,800 | ||||
| Williams | Pereira | $7,900 | ||||
| Flick | Durden | $8,700 | to | Aldo | Vera | $8,600 |
| Morono | Pettis | $7,000 | to | Kianzad | Eubanks | $7,400 |
| Total Salary | $49,200 | Pivot Salary | - | |||
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Nchukwi | Pickett | $9,400 | to | |||
| Arroyo | Winn | $8,900 | to | Pereira | Williams | $8,300 |
| Hardy | Tybura | $8,500 | to | Tybura | Hardy | $7,700 |
| Thompson | Neal | $7,800 | to | Neal | Thompson | $8,400 |
| Robertson | Santos | $8,000 | to | Williams | Pereira | $7,900 |
| Font | Moraes | $7,200 | to | Moraes | Font | $9,000 |
| Total Salary | $49,800 | Pivot Salary | - | |||
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Williams +105, Font +130, Morono +195,
Favorite Props: Kianzad WBD +185
Long Shot: Robertson via SUB +310
Live Dogs: Thompson, Morono, Williams, Font, Tybura, Kianzad, Winn
Stats & Picks:
| Stephen Thompson | vs | Loading... |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | Loading... |
| Record: 15-4-1 | Record | |
| 7 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (62%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | Loading... |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jose Aldo | vs | Marlon Vera |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 28-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-1 |
| 8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (61%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Michel Pereira | vs | Khaos Williams |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 24-11-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (55%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Marlon Moraes | vs | Rob Font |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 23-7-1 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (26%) |
| -142 | Vegas Odds | +132 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Marcin Tybura | vs | Greg Hardy |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 20-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 7 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (35%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Anthony Pettis | vs | Alex Morono |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 23-10-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 (1 NC) |
| Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (48%) | |
| Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | |
| -215 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Sijara Eubanks | vs | Loading... |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | Loading... |
| Record: 7-5-0 | Record | |
| 5 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | Loading... |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Deron Winn | vs | Antonio Arroyo |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Gillian Robertson | vs | Taila Santos |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 9-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | vs | Jamie Pickett |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 4-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (100%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -350 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Jimmy Flick | vs | Cody Durden |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-1 |
| 8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Christos Giagos | vs | Carlton Minus |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 17-8-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (41%) |
| 13 SUBMISSIONS (87%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |