PGA Championship Predictions, Free Picks, Odds: Andrew Novak Long Shot Pick
PGA Championship Free Pick: Jason Day Top 20Â (+250 at DraftKings)
Jason Day has bounced back in a big way from the struggles he dealt with for a few seasons. Thus far in 2025, he’s recorded 3 top 10 finishes and is set up well for Quail Hollow. This is a course that Day has had a ton of success with in the past. He debuted here in 2010 with a T22nd finish, which he then followed up with 3 straight T10 finishes here, including a win here in 2018. During his struggling seasons, he did miss the cut here twice, but last season finished T4th, showing his success here is sustainable.
Day’s game in 2025 lines up fairly well for this course as well. He’s long enough off the tee to handle the length this course offers. He’s a top 30 scorer on both par 4s and par 5s, and he’s avoided bogeys at a similar rate. He may not be the Jason Day that can secure a win this week, but he can certainly secure a top 20 finish.
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PGA Championship One and Done Pick: Bryson DeChambeau
Rory would be the pick here if he weren’t my pick for the Masters, so if you have him available, Rory is the clearest choice here. However, Bryson is no slouch, and given his status on LIV, the Majors are the only chance to use him. Still one of the longest hitters in the sport, he can easily handle this 7,600-yard monster of a course. He’s been on a hot streak as well, with no worse than a T20 finish in 2025, and won in his most recent start in Korea on LIV. Perhaps most importantly, he’s found his iron swing again. His iron play has been a historical strength for him, but he started to lose his swing. This was most evident at Augusta, where his loss of strokes with the irons arguably cost him the event, as he managed to finish T5 while finishing with the third worst SG: Approach amongst players who made the cut, including losing -2.40 strokes on Sunday. In Korea, he had the best iron performance he had had since he was the winner at the 2024 U.S. Open, where he won. The putter remains a major strength, and the wedges have turned into a strength as well. Bryson has the clearest path to victory outside of Rory, so I would feel extremely comfortable picking Bryson this week.
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PGA Championship: Andrew Novak (+19000) - Long Shot Pick
I’m not sure there's a player with a better average performance over their last 4 events than Andrew Novak. In his last 4 starts on tour, he’s recorded finishes of T17th, 1st, 2nd, and T3rd. Perhaps most impressively, he won at Zurich while losing strokes against the field off the tee. This will be just his 2nd major start, his first being a missed cut at the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. He’s also never played professionally at Quail Hollow, so this will be a brand new venue for him, but his current form is too hard to ignore. In 2025, he’s currently 20th in Total Strokes Gained, 13th in scrambling, 14th in par 5 scoring, and 7th in SG: Around-the-Green. He’s got some great value here, and if you wanted to sprinkle a ladder play on him, you can get him at +400 for top 20, +1000 for top 10, or +2500 for top 5.
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