Kalshi Predictions Market PGA Picks: Best Predictions for The Genesis Invitational

The PGA Tour returns to the iconic Riviera Country Club for the 100th playing of The Genesis Invitational. As a Signature Event, this tournament features a star-studded, limited field competing on one of the Tour's most historic and demanding layouts. Famous for its Kikuyu grass fairways, treacherous Poa Annua greens, and "Hogan's Alley," Riviera demands precision and creativity.

The Kalshi prediction market offers a unique way to trade on the tournament. Instead of betting fixed odds, you trade contracts on outcomes (like "Winner") priced from 1¢ to 99¢, reflecting the market’s real-time probability. With the tour back in Los Angeles after a detour last year, identifying value in the "Winner" market is critical.

Top Kalshi Prediction Market PGA Picks

Scottie Scheffler to Win (Trading at ~23¢)

Scottie Scheffler enters the week as the clear favorite, with his contract trading at 23¢ (implying a 23% chance to win). As the World No. 1, Scheffler’s ball-striking is tailor-made for Riviera’s tee-to-green demands. While 23¢ is a premium price, his incredibly high floor makes him the anchor of any portfolio. If you believe the favorite is inevitable, this is the "Yes" contract to hold.

Rory McIlroy to Win (Trading at ~6¢)

Rory McIlroy is priced at 6¢, offering a potential return of over 16x if he claims the title. McIlroy has consistently contended at Riviera, and his power game allows him to take advantage of the par-5s. At just 6¢, this is a strong value play for a player with his ceiling in a limited field.

Best Value Plays on the Kalshi Market Board

Hideki Matsuyama to Win (Trading at ~4¢)

Hideki Matsuyama is coming into this week in scorching form, fresh off a playoff loss at the WM Phoenix Open. He is also a past champion at Riviera, having won here in 2024 with a spectacular final-round 62. Trading at just 4¢, Matsuyama offers incredible value for a player with both recent form and proven course history. Buying "Yes" shares here provides excellent leverage on a player clearly dialing in his game.

Collin Morikawa to Win (Trading at ~3¢)

At 3¢, Collin Morikawa is arguably the best value on the board. The LA native just snapped his winless drought with a victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weeks ago. Morikawa’s elite iron play is perfectly suited for Riviera’s small, firm greens, and he has finished as runner-up here before (2022). Getting a recent winner and local favorite at this price is a steal.

Longshot Contracts with Upside

Adam Scott to Win (Trading at ~2¢)

Adam Scott and Riviera are a perfect match. The Australian won here officially in 2020 (and unofficially in 2005) and rarely finishes outside the top tier at this venue. Known as "Mr. Riviera," his experience on Kikuyu grass gives him a distinct advantage. Trading at 2¢, a "Yes" position is a low-risk play on a course horse who knows exactly how to navigate "Hogan's Alley."

Min Woo Lee to Win (Trading at ~2¢)

For those looking for high upside, Min Woo Lee at 2¢ is an exciting spec play. His explosive driving distance can overpower parts of the course, and if his short game is on, he can contend with the best. At this price, you are buying a lottery ticket on one of the tour's most electric young talents.

Max Homa to Win (Trading at ~1¢)

The market seems to have forgotten that Max Homa is the 2021 champion of this event. Trading at a rock-bottom 1¢, Homa is the ultimate "buy low" candidate. He considers Riviera his favorite course in the world and has an incredible track record in his hometown event. At 1¢, there is virtually zero risk in adding him to your portfolio for a potential 100x payout if he finds his magic again.

How to Approach Kalshi Prediction Markets for The Genesis Invitational

Trading on Kalshi requires a different strategy than traditional betting:

• Buy Low, Sell High: You don't have to hold a contract until Sunday evening. If you buy Max Homa at 1¢ and he shoots a 66 in Round 1, his price could jump to 10¢ or more. You can sell your shares then to lock in a massive profit without sweating the weekend.
• Portfolio Theory: Instead of betting it all on one winner, build a basket of contenders. Buying Matsuyama (4¢), Morikawa (3¢), and Adam Scott (2¢) gives you exposure to three course specialists for a total cost of just 9¢. If any of them wins, you payout $1.00, securing a significant profit.
• Recent Form vs. History: This week offers a perfect mix: Collin Morikawa (Form + Local ties) and Adam Scott (History). Balancing your portfolio with both types of players is a smart way to manage risk at Riviera.

How To Use Our Kalshi The Genesis Invitational Promo Code ALARMX

You’ll be working towards that guaranteed bonus even before the first tee shot is hit on Thursday when you use the steps below:

1. Join here 👈🏼 for a new Kalshi account
2. Enter our Kalshi The Genesis Invitational promo code ALARMX
3. Complete 100 contracts (1-99 cents each)

Remember, it doesn’t matter if a single one of those contracts is successful (or which golfers you target) for you to then get your $10 bonus!