It’s good to be back, it’s good to be back. NHL DFS returned on Wednesday night, just in time to fill the void left by the end of the baseball regular season. I’m supremely excited about it. However, on night two of the NHL season, it’s wise not to let your excitement get the best of you by over-leveraging yourself. This early in the season there’s simply too much that we don’t know, so it’s advisable to play conservatively until we get a few weeks into the season ans have some reliable data.

As an anecdotal example, it seemed like a good idea at the beginning of last season to pick on the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. As it turned out, we should have been leaning on Vegas players as opposed to leaning on their opponents. More broadly, we need a few weeks to be sure about usage. We can’t yet be sure what trios will form lines and we can be even less sure about how teams will choose to match up their lines when they have last change at home. That’s essentially a coaching issue, which also brings up the issue of coaching changes. The Dallas Stars are on their third coach in three years. Two years ago, they were a high-flying team who scored a lot and also gave up a lot of chances. Last season, under Ken Hitchcock, their defense was much improved, but system changes somewhat stifled their offense. Who knows how they’ll play this season under yet another coach.

There’s obviously the data from last season to work from, but too many numbers are context-dependent, and the context won’t necessarily be the same this season. For example, a player might have excellent possession numbers from last season that made him and his line a tough matchup for their opponents. Aside from not knowing if teams will choose to matchup lines the same way they did last year, that same player might not be as tough of a matchup if he has different linemates this year with whom he interacts differently.

Long story short, take it easy for a few weeks and save your money for a time when it can be a better investment. After looking back at my NHL DFS investment/return from last season, I didn’t have any big profit nights until October 29 and November 3. That’s not to say you shouldn’t play tonight, but pace yourself.

Stacks

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