Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? The 2-5-1 Commanders visit the first-place 5-2-1 Giants at MetLife Stadium on Thursday night, with New York a 2.5-point favorite and the total near 40.5. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 10 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Commanders vs. Giants: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
J.J. McCarthy gets a Commanders pass defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA and last against tight ends, while Washington's Chig Okonkwo is a full participant and tied for the team lead in targets last week. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 10
J.J. McCarthy NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 208.5 Passing Yards
McCarthy is 2-0 as a Giants starter after throwing for 252 yards against Houston and 127 against Philadelphia, and he has proven he can move the ball when asked, with 243 yards in a single quarter against New Orleans. He is a full participant after a hip injury and draws a Commanders defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA and last in the league against tight ends. Nabers and Isaiah Likely give him two strong targets, and Washington has allowed plenty through the air. The Giants may run the ball with Cam Skattebo as slight favorites, but over 208.5 passing yards looks like a fair play.
Chig Okonkwo NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 34.5 Receiving Yards
Okonkwo caught six of seven targets for 57 yards against the Rams last week, tying for the team high in targets, and he is a full participant after a hip injury. Washington's receiver group is thin, with Terry McLaurin out for the year and Treylon Burks dealing with a foot injury, and Okonkwo ranks among the league's best tight ends in yards per target and explosive catch rate since Jayden Daniels returned. The Giants rank 12th in DVOA against tight ends. The line is only 34.5 yards, and Okonkwo has cleared it in three of his last four games. Over 34.5 receiving yards looks like a good bet.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Commanders vs. Giants
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward McCarthy and Okonkwo as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These Underdog NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Get Over $1,000 in Bonuses
Ready to build an entry around these picks? Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code ALARM and unlock over $1,000 in bonuses to get started. Just create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and the bonus offers apply automatically, no extra steps needed. Check out all of Fantasy Alarm's active offers for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Thursday night matchup that's already stacked with value.