Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 1 closes out with a historic Thursday night matchup as the 49ers and Rams meet in the NFL's first-ever regular-season game in Australia. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this NFC West clash, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

49ers vs. Rams: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

The 2026 season wraps up its opening week with maybe its most fascinating matchup, and it's being played on the other side of the planet at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Los Angeles spent the offseason going all in, landing reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett in a blockbuster trade, while San Francisco rebuilt its receiver room through free agency after already losing Ricky Pearsall for the season. Both rosters are built to contend for a Super Bowl, and a division rival halfway around the world is a fitting stage to find out where each team really stands. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 1

Mike Evans NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 Receptions

Purdy isn't likely to pile up completions in this one, but the ones he does complete should find Mike Evans more often than not. He was one of San Francisco's headline free-agent additions this offseason and has already claimed the X receiver spot in a group that's been hit hard by injuries. A camp issue briefly put his Week 1 status in question, but he's since confirmed he'll be out there, and a 3.5 line feels low for a player carrying true WR1 target volume. Add in George Kittle's uncertain snap count as he continues working back from his Achilles, and Evans stands to pick up even more of the early-down looks. Clearing 3.5 catches for a receiver in this kind of featured role is a reasonably safe expectation.

Puka Nacua NFL Underdog Pick: Lower 94.5 Receiving Yards

A unanimous All-Pro nod and the league's top reception total is how Nacua's 2025 ended, but 2026 has brought a much bumpier lead-up. August practice time was lost to a psoas and groin injury, and an unresolved legal matter has kept suspension chatter alive heading into kickoff. That's a lot for any receiver to shake off before trying to look like himself again, regardless of the Rams and the league both signaling he's good to go. There's still a path to him being effective, but given the missed reps and the off-field cloud hanging over him, we'd rather fade a big yardage number in his first game back. Davante Adams only gets more appealing as a target if opposing defenses decide to focus their attention on Nacua.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for 49ers vs. Rams

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Evans and Nacua as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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