Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 10's Sunday slate features a Jets quarterback in a pass-heavy script against Buffalo and a Panthers running back facing the Saints' 30th-ranked run defense by DVOA. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 10 slate, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Bills vs. Jets and Panthers vs. Saints: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Geno Smith and the Jets are 8.5-point underdogs to a Bills team that leads the NFL in scoring, which should keep Smith throwing, while Chuba Hubbard and the Panthers visit a Saints defense that allows 133.9 rushing yards per game. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 10
Geno Smith NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Smith has 12 touchdown passes and three interceptions through nine games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of them, including three against Miami in Week 7. Last week's 165-yard, no-touchdown game against the Chiefs was his worst of the year, with five sacks and Garrett Wilson out with a concussion, and Wilson and Omar Cooper Jr. both carry injury questions this week. But the Jets are 8.5-point underdogs to a Buffalo team that leads the league in scoring, and the Bills allow 37.5 pass attempts per game, 30th in the NFL, so Smith should be throwing plenty. Buffalo ranks 27th in DVOA against WR1. Over 1.5 touchdown passes is a game-script play.
Chuba Hubbard NFL Underdog Pick: Anytime TD
Hubbard has five rushing touchdowns and 619 yards through eight games, and he has hit at least 60 scrimmage yards in every game. New Orleans ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA, allows 133.9 rushing yards per game, and ranks 25th in DVOA against running backs. As Carolina's top red-zone option on the ground, Hubbard is the most likely Panthers player to score, per Stats Insider, and the game has a 48.5-point total. Anytime touchdown looks like a good play.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 10 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Smith and Hubbard as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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