Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today for Week 1's Sunday Night Football finale? The Cowboys and Giants close out the opening slate with a classic NFC East rivalry game loaded with fresh faces on both sides. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

 

Cowboys vs. Giants: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys head to MetLife Stadium to close out Week 1 against a Giants team that spent the offseason retooling around new head coach John Harbaugh. New York brought in several familiar Baltimore faces to pair with second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart, while Dallas returns a Prescott-led offense that looked like one of the league's best a year ago. Both rosters enter with real question marks on defense, which opens the door for plenty of offensive value in this one. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.

Best Underdog NFL Picks for SNF, Week 1

Isaiah Likely NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 Receptions

Likely followed John Harbaugh from Baltimore to New York this offseason on a three-year, $40 million deal, and for the first time in his career he steps in as a true No. 1 tight end rather than sharing the room with a bigger name. His four years with the Ravens showed real playmaking ability, and he now inherits a featured role in an offense that Harbaugh and Nagy are building around multiple tight end sets, a staple of their time together in Baltimore. Dart also showed real chemistry with his tight ends during his rookie year, and Likely projects as an every-down piece of the passing game from Week 1 on. Clearing 3.5 receptions in his Giants debut as the clear top target at the position looks very reasonable.

Javonte Williams NFL Underdog Pick: Anytime TD

Williams turned in a career year in his first season in Dallas, rushing for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns while locking down the Cowboys' RB1 job by a wide margin. The team rewarded him with a three-year extension this offseason, and nothing about his workload or role near the goal line figures to change entering Week 1. New York also traded away run-stopping anchor Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals this offseason, leaving a young and still-developing front seven for Williams to run against. A proven, high-volume goal-line back facing a defensive front that's still finding its identity is a strong recipe for finding the end zone.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Cowboys vs. Giants

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Likely and Williams as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

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