Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today to close out Week 9? The Bills visit the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night as 3-point favorites, with the total near 44 and Carson Wentz starting for Minnesota in place of the injured Kyler Murray. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Bills vs. Vikings: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

James Cook is the engine of Buffalo's offense, carrying the ball 19.7 times per game, while Carson Wentz makes his first start for Minnesota against a Bills defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for MNF, Week 9

James Cook NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 18.5 Rushing Attempts

Cook has carried the ball 138 times in seven games, an average of 19.7, with 25 against the Rams, 22 against the Raiders, and 21 against the Ravens in his last three starts and a touchdown in six straight games. Minnesota ranks first in pass defense DVOA but 17th against the run, giving up 5.3 yards per carry after halftime, and Buffalo is a 3-point favorite that should be in position to run when it leads. He has carried 18 or fewer times in only two games, both low-volume efforts. Over 18.5 rushing attempts looks like a strong play.

Carson Wentz NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 212.5 Passing Yards

Wentz takes over for Kyler Murray, who has a hamstring strain, after throwing for 276 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions on 39 attempts in relief this season. Murray was averaging only 170.3 passing yards per game, 30th among 31 qualifiers, and Minnesota's offense should be more vertical with Wentz under center and Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as targets. Buffalo ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1 and 18th against the pass overall, and it has allowed 10 of its 15 passing touchdowns after halftime. The Vikings' defense is elite, but Buffalo has the league's top scoring offense, so Minnesota should be playing catch-up. Over 212.5 passing yards looks like a fair play.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Bills vs. Vikings

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Cook and Wentz as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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