Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today to close out Week 7? Monday Night Football brings the 2-4 Cowboys to Philadelphia to face the 2-4 Eagles, who are starting Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Philadelphia's offense has been pass-heavy without a run game, and it faces a Dallas secondary that ranks 32nd in passing DVOA. On the other side, Ryan Flournoy has earned a bigger slot role with KaVontae Turpin out. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for MNF, Week 7
Ryan Flournoy NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 33.5 Receiving Yards
Flournoy has found a consistent role as Dallas' WR3, running a route on 91% of the team's dropbacks last week and finishing with seven catches for 40 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, his highest target total of the season. He has gone for 37, 90, and 40 yards in his last three games and averages 39 yards per game, with most of his work coming from the slot. The Eagles will be without cornerback Michael Carter II and pass rusher Nolan Smith, and Dallas also lost KaVontae Turpin to a rib injury, which funnels more snaps his way. Clearing 33.5 receiving yards looks like a good bet for a receiver riding this kind of role.
Tanner McKee NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 193.5 Passing Yards
McKee made his first start of the season last week, completing 26 of 45 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown against Carolina, and he gets a Dallas defense that has been picked apart through the air, ranking 32nd in passing DVOA and 30th in QB rating allowed. The Eagles are without Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Dontayvion Wicks, and they have run for just 57 yards in two games without Saquon Barkley, so they have leaned heavily on the pass. Dallas is a 4.5-point favorite, which should keep McKee throwing, and he has no shortage of short throws to Goedert, Lemon, and the backs. Clearing 193.5 passing yards looks like a fair bet on volume.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Cowboys vs. Eagles
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Flournoy and McKee as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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