For our Underdog entry tonight, we are fading the noise and focusing on volume and game script. The 49ers' offensive engine remains the safest bet on the slate, while the Colts' red-zone inefficiencies with a quarterback who has been on the couch for four years provide a unique angle on the kicking game. Here are the two plays we are locking in to start the week.

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Christian McCaffrey Underdog NFL Pick: Higher than 59.5 Rushing Yards

McCaffrey is in the midst of a historic season, chasing his second career 1,000/1,000 campaign. While the Colts' defensive front, anchored by DeForest Buckner, is formidable, this line feels surprisingly low for a player of CMC's volume. The 49ers have leaned heavily on the ground game to close out their recent win streak. Even if Indianapolis stacks the box to force Brock Purdy to throw, McCaffrey’s efficiency usually guarantees he clears 60 yards on volume alone. Look for Shanahan to establish the run early to keep the 44-year-old Rivers off the field.

 

 

 

Blake Grupe Underdog NFL Pick: Higher than 1.5 Field Goals Made

Since joining the Colts mid-season to replace Michael Badgley, Blake Grupe has been busy. The Colts' offense, now led by Rivers, has struggled to punch it into the end zone, stalling often in plus territory. In last week’s 18-16 loss to Seattle, the offense moved the ball but lacked the explosive finish. With a full week of practice, Rivers should be able to guide the team into scoring range more consistently, but against a stout 49ers defense, touchdowns will be hard to come by. Expect Grupe to be called upon multiple times indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium.

 

 

 

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