Underdog NFL Picks For AFC Championship Sunday, 1/25: Player Projections & Fantasy Picks

The NFL playoffs have reached a fever pitch as we enter the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. Fantasy managers and Underdog users are looking for every advantage to secure a win in this win-or-go-home showdown. This matchup features the improbable New England Patriots clashing with the top-seeded Denver Broncos, creating massive value for player projections given the injury news and defensive dominance. We have identified two specific plays that stand out based on recent volume, DVOA data, and favorable game scripts. 

Underdog NFL Picks For Conference Championship Sunday

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Rhamondre Stevenson Underdog NFL Pick: Higher than 2.5 Receptions

This number feels low for a safety valve in a game defined by altitude and pressure. While Rhamondre Stevenson is the bell cow of the Patriots' backfield, the 2025-26 version of the Broncos' defense, specifically their pass rush, demands a quicker release from quarterback Drake Maye. According to the latest data, Denver’s front seven creates pressure at one of the highest rates in the league, often forcing opposing quarterbacks to abandon deep reads.

Sophomore quarterback Drake Maye has shown a clear tendency to check the ball down when the pocket collapses, resulting in Stevenson recording seven receptions over the first two rounds of the playoffs. With the Patriots looking to negate the Broncos' pass rush without risking turnovers, high-percentage throws to the flat will be a staple of the game plan. Unless New England dominates early and abandons the pass entirely, three catches is a very clear bar against this aggressive unit. 
 

Courtland Sutton Underdog NFL Pick: Lower than 4.5 Receptions

While Courtland Sutton has been the alpha in this offense all season, the matchup on Sunday demands a fade. The Broncos are forced to start backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, and the chemistry drop-off, combined with the opponent, is concerning. The Patriots finished the regular season with an elite defensive profile and have only improved in the postseason, ranking near the top of the league in Pass Defense DVOA.

More importantly for this prop, New England has completely stifled opposing #1 receivers in these playoffs, shutting down the top options for both the Chargers and Texans. Top cornerback Christian Gonzalez has been a blanket in coverage, erasing perimeter threats. With Stidham likely managing the game and leaning on safer, shorter throws to running backs and tight ends, yardage and volume will be hard to come by for Sutton. Expect the Patriots to force someone else to beat them.
 

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