Our Underdog NFL free picks for Christmas Day, 12/25, analyze the Higher/Lower market to find the best value for your holiday slips. With pivotal matchups on the schedule, including an NFC North battle in Minnesota, our DFS projections highlight discrepancies in the passing and rushing markets. We are specifically looking at fading the Dallas Cowboys passing attack while backing the Detroit Lions ground game in a correlated strategy. Check out these Underdog Fantasy football picks to maximize your ROI this Thursday.

 

Underdog NFL Picks For Christmas Day Week 17, 12/25

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Dak Prescott Underdog NFL Pick: Lower Than 273.5 Passing Yards

With the Commanders starting Josh Johnson, the Cowboys are poised to control this game comfortably. A blowout or comfortable lead creates a negative script for passing volume. Dak simply won't need to throw the ball 35-40 times to beat a Josh Johnson-led team. We expect Dallas to lean on the run in the second half to shorten the game, leaving Dak well short of this lofty yardage total.

 

Jahmyr Gibbs Underdog NFL Pick: Higher Than 76.5 Rushing Yards

This pick correlates directly with the Vikings' QB situation and the Lions' own injury report. Because Minnesota is starting Max Brosmer, the Lions should hold the lead and control the clock. Additionally, with David Montgomery listed as questionable, Gibbs could be looking at near 100% of the high-value running back touches. Any limitation to Montgomery only furthers Gibbs' workload, making the "Higher" here one of the safest volume plays on the slate.

 

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