Tonight's Thursday Night Football tilt features a critical divisional battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons, with major playoff implications for Tampa Bay. This matchup offers intriguing storylines, particularly in the passing game and defensive pressure, creating high-value prop opportunities. In the world of Underdog Fantasy, we're looking for value in predictable touchdowns and high-variance players that skew toward the "Higher" projection. This slate offers an exciting history of scoring and turnover potential, leading to two compelling picks for the Higher column.

Underdog NFL Picks For TNF, 12/11

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Baker Mayfield Underdog NFL Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

This is arguably the highest-confidence projection on the board due to an undeniable historical trend and a massive personnel boost. Mayfield has thrown exactly three passing touchdowns in each of his last three games against the Atlanta Falcons, proving this is a matchup he consistently exploits regardless of his recent form. The Falcons’ red-zone defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, often struggling to stop passing plays inside the 20-yard line. With Mike Evans expected back, the Buccaneers gain an elite red-zone mismatch that only increases the probability of passing scores, making the Higher selection a priority bet.

 

 

 

Kirk Cousins Underdog NFL Pick: Higher than 0.5 Interceptions

While Cousins is generally lauded for his low turnover rate over his career, his short stint with the Falcons this season has shown signs of turnover trouble, making the Higher pick a strong play against a talented Bucs defense. Cousins has thrown 3 interceptions in his 4 starts this season, which is a higher-than-usual rate for the veteran, averaging nearly a pick per game when he is under center. The expected game script, with the Bucs likely leading and forcing Atlanta into a pass-heavy approach in the second half, increases the pressure on Cousins to force throws against one of the league's top takeaway units, making a single mistake highly probable.

 

 

 

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