Some weeks, we go against the grain. High ownership can spoil the fun of using some of the “obvious” plays. This week, however, there is quite a bit of chalk. And, sometimes, you just need to have the right guy in there, regardless of how many other fantasy gamers have that guy too. That’s really our job this week - to separate the good chalk from the bad chalk.

Lucky for us, we have some advantages with behind-the-scenes stats. We know which matchups are truly good or bad compared to fluky weekly points per game. And we know where these platforms may not have made the correct adjustments to the pricing. Armed with that, we can sort through the good options this week and do our best to narrow it down to the great ones at each price point. So let’s dig in. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 7

Trey McBride TE Arizona Cardinals - DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $6,900

Trey McBride was already the focal point of this offense. But now Marvin Harrison Jr is in concussion protocol. He remained there on Wednesday, which is not a good sign for this weekend - usually, players who play are able to at least get a limited practice in on Wednesday. If he remains in the protocol on Thursday, we have to assume he’ll be out.

This will probably be a popular play because of that. But it’s also probably “good chalk” given the success tight ends have had against the Packers thus far. McBride already leads the league in targets as is, and he’s one of the few reliable options at tight end this year so he’s always going to be on our cash game radar. 

UPDATE Marvin Harrison Jr has cleared concussion protocol.

 

Jake Ferguson TE Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $6,800

The DFS sites are going to show the Commanders as the 11th-best team against the tight end. And, based on raw points, that is technically true. But a little bit of a deeper look into the team reveals that they might actually be a better TE matchup than they appear.

  • Week 1 - They faced the Giants when Malik Nabers was still active and Russell Wilson was the QB
  • Week 2 - Tucker Kraft went off for 124 yards and a TD
  • Week 3 - They faced an injured Brock Bowers
  • Week 4 - Kyle Pitts has 4 for 70 and a TD
  • Week 5 - They face the Chargers, who used blocking TEs with offensive line issues
  • Week 6 - They face the Bears, who have no current TE identity

This is all reflected in a stat like DVOA over at FTN Fantasy, which attempts to adjust for the strength of the matchup. In that metric, the Commanders are actually ranked as the second softest TE defense, behind only the Panthers. They have been weak against the slot, and their linebackers, like the aging Bobby Wagner, are not great cover guys. So this is a better matchup than it looks on paper, which might help with ownership numbers. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For NFL Week 7

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $4,700 | FanDuel: $5,800

Travis Kelce has pretty consistently delivered against the Las Vegas Raiders in his career. In his last 17 games against them, he’s scored fewer than 9 PPR points only once. Over that span, he has had multiple games with 30+ PPR points and six with 20+. Just last year, in the two games they played, he averaged 19 PPR points.

Yes, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are back. But neither of those guys is truly fully up to speed here. This will be the first game back for Rice since he tore his ACL. The return of those players could have folks fading Kelce when it might actually open things up for him. We’re willing to bet on Kelce putting a whooping on the Raiders and finding the endzone again - for old times' sake. 

Harold Fannin Jr, TE, Cleveland Browns - DraftKings: $3,900 | FanDuel: $5,500

Welcome to Chalk Week over in tight end land. It’s not often that we lean directly into what will likely be the most utilized plays. But sometimes these guys don’t increase the prices enough for these players, given the circumstances. In this case, the circumstance we are assuming is that David Njoku is out.

With Njoku getting hurt mid-game last week, Fannin played 66 snaps and ran a whopping 50 routes. While doing that, he clocked in with 7 catches on 10 targets for 81 yards. Guys priced under $4,000 on DraftKings aren’t doing anything like that. And that was with Njoku playing 36 snaps. If Njoku is out this week with a plus matchup against the Dolphins and Cedric Tillman on IR, it’s almost irresponsible not to have a couple of lineups with Harold Fannin 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For NFL Week 7

Michael Mayer TE, Las Vegas Raiders - DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $5,100

The start to the season for the Raiders has been pretty brutal. Geno Smith has played poorly. Brock Bowers tried to play through a knee injury only to reaggravate it. Jakobi Meyers has struggled (and demanded a trade). The line has been awful, which has hurt Ashton Jeanty. It’s not surprising that Amari Cooper decided to retire instead.

Yet, they still have to play the games. And, without Brock Bowers out there, Michael Mayer is the top tight end. Now, he’s not lining up a ton at WR like Bowers typically would - he lined up inline for 84% of his snaps. But he did play 56 of 61 snaps and run 83% of the routes, which is pretty good deployment. And he got seven targets, of which he caught five. 

Mason Taylor TE, New York Jets - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,700

Here’s another pricing situation we don’t quite get. Last week on DraftKings, Mason Taylor was $3,300, which is cheap. We weren’t using him, though, because he had a tough matchup with the Denver Broncos (plus it was an international game and we don’t typically place those slates anyway). This week is a different story, though.

Garrett Wilson is out for the foreseeable future. Not that it matters much, but Josh Reynolds also missed practice yesterday. The Carolina Panthers have a bottom-five defense in raw points allowed to the tight end, and DVOA grades them as the single worst team against the position. Yet the price for Mason Taylor only went up $100 on DraftKings, and it actually went DOWN by $200 on FanDuel. I know the models focus on what was scored last week, but we care about the opportunity THIS week. This should be another chalky week given he price, but it’s just so cheap. 

Bonus TE Dart Throw For Week 7

Eijah Higgins TE, Arizona Cardinals - DraftKings: $2,500 | FanDuel: $4,500

This one is kind of out there. And, at most, it should probably be used in MAYBE one or two lineups as it’s a true dart throw. But hear me out. Tip Reiman was placed on season-ending IR. When Marvin Harrison Jr got ruled out last week, the Cardinals ran more two-TE sets than they typically do, which saw Higgins play a season-high snap share at nearly 50%. If MHJ is out again, I expect Higgins to be out there a decent amount.

The thing about Higgins is that he’s not just the “next man up blocking tight end” behind Reiman. He’s actually a converted WR - he played WR at Stanford. So they like mixing him in some sneaky targets now and again. Last year actually got two endzone targets, which is how he tied Trey McBride with 2 TDs on the season last year. If there was ever a week for a sneaky random TE2 touchdown, it would be this week with Xavier McKinney and Quay Walker keeping tabs on Trey McBride. This wouldn’t even be the first time a team pulled that on the Packers - Tanner Hudson caught 4 passes last week and scored. So, even though we do still like McBride, Higgins is a deep dart, sneaky pivot at the bare minimum on DraftKings

UPDATE Marvin Harrison Jr has cleared concussion protocol making this one a much more risky proposition. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 7

Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts - DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $7,000

We aren’t going to fade Tyler Warren very often out here. Not only has he been great as a typical tight end, but we suspect that he will mix in a rushing and/or passing touchdown at some point, too, and have a blow-up game. So we’re going to try to put him in a couple of lineups where possible. But this week, we really don’t love the matchup with Derwin James. James was able to shut Darren Waller down for the most part last week (only two catches, but his day was bailed out by a TD). We don’t want to have to get bailed out - we want to thrive. He’s the top-priced TE on FanDuel, so we’re skipping that this week. 

Dallas Goedert TE Philadelphia Eagles - DraftKings: $4,500 | FanDuel: $5,500

When I look at the touchdowns for Jake Ferguson, I understand them. They are predictable. He leads the league in receptions vs. man-to-man, which is conducive to redzone success. And he also leads the league in endzone targets with six. Dallas Goedert, on the other hand, only has 38 yards vs. man coverage. He only has one endzone target. That especially goes for gadgety trick plays - they aren’t really repeatable. I expect the Tush Push and Saquon Barkley to settle those situations in most cases, so I’m not really chasing touchdowns with Goedert. 

Theo Johnson TE New York Giants - DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,200

Yes, the Giants are a fun team. And Theo Johnson’s role has increased. But he’s in the gauntlet right now for bad tight end matchups. The Eagles and Broncos are two of the best teams vs. the TE. And he just played the Eagles, then gets the Broncos and Eagles again. Now that Fred Warner is out, the 49ers might not be as bad as they once were for TEs, but we probably won’t use Theo Johnson again until the Bears game, regardless.