Still reading about the best survivor pool strategy? Still looking for the top NFL Week 10 survivor picks. Nice work. Seriously. That is nice work. Two weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets shook up survivor pools everywhere with their upsets and now, this past week, the Carolina Panthers do it to us with a crazy upset over the Green Bay Packers. Absolutely unbelievable and now the Packers have a seat at the “Ruining Table” right next to the 2024 Bengals as team that destroyed survivor pools not once, but twice in the same season. If you survived all of that, it’s time to get to work.

 Remember, the best survivor pool strategy isn’t simply about picking the biggest favorite each week; it’s about understanding matchups, managing risk, and planning several weeks ahead. Sometimes, though, the football gods have a different plan. You can do all the right things, make the best picks and still find yourself on the losing side of things. We’ll try and help you avoid that as best we can. Those who are still in it are ready to scratch and claw their way to the final weeks, so identifying the best survivor pool strategy can be the key to outlasting the competition and claiming the prize. In this week’s article we'll take you through our process to help you make the most sensible picks to advance to next week and beyond.

 

 

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy for 2025 NFL Week 10

We remain of the mindset that the best survivor pool strategy at this point of the season, still revolves around the "chalky" plays. We’re always looking ahead, but right now, we’re still looking at the reliable favorites with the biggest spreads and hopefully, not overexposed in most pools. We prefer to have a home team and, in a lot of cases, avoid divisional matchups and short weeks, so don’t expect to see much in the way of Thursday Night Football picks. Of course, with the Denver Broncos being such a heavy favorite over the Las Vegas Raiders, we may just need to wade into the Thursday Night pool, as scary as that might be. Especially a divisional match-up and one that has, personally, burned me in the past.

For NFL Week 10, the premium examples are the aforementioned Broncos, the Indianapolis Colts who are a 6.5-point favorite, technically at home but actually in Madrid, against the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks who are a 6.5-point favorite over the Arizona Cardinals. All three are home games with strong point spreads and favorable money lines. Our friends over at Pool Genius also point out, the Buffalo Bills, 9.5-point towards road favorites over the Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions, also road favorites over the Washington Commanders by eight points. But do we want to take road teams? Especially two teams who have Future Values of 2.2 and 2.5, respectively. And they even isolate the Chicago Bears, home favorites by 4.5 points but just a 67-percent win probability. That doesn’t seem good unless every other team mentioned has been used by you. 

 

 

Dominate Your Survivor Pool with Pool Genius

Back in Week 3, you got a great introduction to Pool Genius and everything they have to offer. It doesn’t matter that it’s Week 10 – there is still an opportunity for you to join and still take advantage of everything they have to offer. If this is your first time hearing about them, please allow me to show you the way, because they have some exciting tools to help you make the right picks. What happens is, you load in all the information about your pool – how many total participants, cost per entry, specific rules to your pool regarding things like repeat picks or buybacks and since we are already here in Week 10, who you’ve taken so far. From there, they analyze all the data and make suggestions as to who to take, so it is a VERY personalized service.

To continue guiding you, I am using all the tools Pool Genius has to offer and making one of my picks based solely off their data and recommendations. The pick I had been tracking in this article series had Arizona in Week 5, so I am shifting gears. I have a few other picks in pool, so I am still using the tools here, but instead of trying to track another pick, I will simply discuss the top few recommended picks overall and from there, you can determine who you want to take each week.

The top Pool Genius recommendations are as follows:

  1. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Atlanta Falcons, 2% popularity)
  2. Denver Broncos (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 29% popularity)
  3. Buffalo Bills (at Miami Dolphins, 15% popularity)
  4. Chicago Bears (vs New York Giants, 4% popularity)

According to Pool Genius the Broncos are expected to be the most popular pick this week and as a 9.5-point home favorite with a -475 money line, it’s pretty understandable. It is a divisional matchup and one that has burned me in the past, but I may have to look past this picks history with me. The game that ranks second-highest in popularity is actually the Carolina Panthers who are a 5.5-point favorite over the New Orleans Saints. However, Pool Genius lists them as their eighth-favorite this week, so perhaps investing in Bryce Young and company is the wrong move?

Now before I get to my favorite picks to use, I do want to remind you that Pool Genius is a paid service, but for the Fantasy Alarm #Family, they have some discounts available to you. The data and service they provide has been fantastic thus far and I feel confident using their suggestions. 

Now let’s get to my three favorite options for NFL Week 10:

 

 

NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 10

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: Pick Buffalo Bills

Our friends over at Pool Genius actually list this one as their third favorite this week, probably because Buffalo has such a strong Future Value. But the -510 money line, the 80-percent win probability and the fact that so many people have been crushed in their survivor pool, I think it might be best to use them now even on the road and in a divisional matchup. Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid are all fired up and looking towards a Super Bowl. They know they need this win and can’t look past this week.

The Dolphins may not have traded everyone away at the deadline, but they are still a team drifting out in the ocean by themselves with little promise for the season. Yes, the Bills run defense is soft and De’Von Achane could have a strong game, but Tua Tagovailoa and the rest aren’t going to produce enough to steal this win away from us. 

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Pick Denver Broncos

When Pool Genius listed the Broncos with the highest popularity score, I got pretty squeamish, even with a -510 money line. I don’t like the rivalry and I don’t like going where the public is going. Isn’t that what did us in with the Packers last week? But the Broncos have a great defense, even without Patrick Surtain and I’m excited to see what Bo Nix , Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin can do against this mediocre Raiders defense.

I also can’t stand Geno Smith and while he posted a strong effort last week against the jaguars, it was a home game. On the road, teams have beaten the snot out of Smith and even with weapons like Brock Bowers and Aston Jeanty, I don’t know if they have the horses to keep pace. I’m leaning towards this for my personal survivor pool picks, but I’m also very scared. 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals: Pick Seattle Seahawks

The folks at Pool Genius have this game listed as their sixth favorite, but with the home game, the 6.5-point spread and the 75-percent win probability, I’m going to look past the road games for Chicago and Detroit and focus here. Sam Darnold looks incredible, the ground game is strong and they just added Rashid Shaheed as a new weapon for the passing attack.

The Cardinals just announced they are putting Kyler Murray on IR with a foot isue and they are a team in turmoil. Jacoby Brissett is under center and he actually does as good a job, maybe even better than what Murray delivers. Their ground game is lacking and the Seahawks are starting to get healthier on defense. Pretty sure I’m going to lock them in for the week.

These are the picks in my order of preference this week. Best of luck to you all in your survivor pool contests.