Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Week 7's Sunday slate features a quarterback heading into a Lions defense that gives up nearly 300 passing yards per game and a Texans receiver with a scoring history at home. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 7 slate, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Packers vs. Lions and Giants vs. Texans: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Jordan Love and the Packers visit Detroit in the week's highest-total game, while Nico Collins and the Texans host a Giants team with a top-five pass defense that has also surrendered 95 points over its last three games. Both matchups set up well for the players we like. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this slate.
Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 7
Jordan Love NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 282.5 Passing Yards
Love enters Detroit with 1,684 passing yards through six games, 280.7 per game, and he has topped 300 yards three times, including 367 against Chicago two weeks ago. The Lions are a soft landing spot, allowing 297.4 passing yards per game, and their pass rush has had trouble bringing Love down in the past. Green Bay's drops are a big reason his totals have not been higher, with 20 on the season, the most in the league, and the Packers are roughly a field-goal underdog in a game with a total above 52. Love has never hit 300 against the Lions and is working through a sore back, but he says he will play, and clearing 282.5 looks like a good bet.
Nico Collins NFL Splash Picks Pick: Anytime TD
Collins has scored in two of his four games, including a two-touchdown, 118-yard day against Dallas, and he has gone over 70 yards three times. Houston has won two straight and is averaging 30 points per game, and the Texans are a double-digit favorite at home, which should produce red-zone chances. New York's pass defense is one of the league's best, ranking fifth at 190.2 yards allowed per game, and Harrison and Dell will take some targets, but Collins has had at least 75 yards and a touchdown in three of his last four home games. An anytime touchdown for the offense's top receiver looks like a good play.
Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Week 7 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Love and Collins as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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