Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? The 4-2 Patriots and 4-2 Bears meet on Thursday Night Football at Soldier Field, with Chicago favored by about three and a total near 50.5. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 7 matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Patriots vs. Bears: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Drake Maye is riding a three-game stretch with 10 touchdown passes, while D'Andre Swift is Chicago's lead back with Kyle Monangai out. Both teams are on a short week and both have injuries to monitor. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.
Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 7
Drake Maye NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Maye has been on a tear, with 10 touchdown passes in his last three games, including three against the Jets, and he has not thrown an interception in his last two. He also rushed for a touchdown over that stretch and has gone for at least 24 rushing yards in three straight games, which gives him extra scoring paths. Brown is questionable but back at practice, and Douglas has taken on a bigger role with Doubs on injured reserve. Chicago ranks 14th against the pass and plays heavy man coverage, which is a legitimate concern, and the offensive line is thin, but clearing 1.5 touchdown passes remains a very reasonable ask given how Maye has been playing.
D'Andre Swift NFL Splash Picks Pick: Anytime TD
Swift scored twice from inside the 10-yard line against Atlanta last week, giving him six rushing touchdowns on the season, and he has had 22 red-zone looks through five games, the most on the team. With Monangai out with toe and hand injuries, Swift handled 58% of the snaps and 16 carries last week, including three inside the five. Chicago is a small home favorite with a ground game that has led the league over the past two seasons. New England's run defense is stingy between the 20s at 90.8 yards allowed per game but has given up five rushing touchdowns through five games. Johnson also scored last week, but Swift's role near the goal line makes him a strong anytime touchdown play.
Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Patriots vs. Bears
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Maye and Swift as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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