Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? The 2-5-1 Commanders visit the first-place 5-2-1 Giants at MetLife Stadium on Thursday night, with New York a 2.5-point favorite and the total near 40.5. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 10 matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Commanders vs. Giants: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Malik Nabers has 100-plus yards in four straight games before last week, and Chig Okonkwo has become a key target for Washington with Terry McLaurin out for the season. Both offenses are thin at the skill positions, which concentrates the targets. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.
Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 10
Malik Nabers NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 67.5 Receiving Yards
Nabers has been the Giants' best player, with 53 catches for 648 yards on the season and four straight 100-yard games to close out October. He has caught 11-of-14 targets for 206 yards since McCarthy took over and is healthy after practicing in full with his knee. The Commanders rank 18th in DVOA against WR1, and the Giants are home favorites with a clear need to get their top receiver the ball. Over 67.5 receiving yards looks like a fair play.
Chig Okonkwo NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 34.5 Receiving Yards
Okonkwo has become one of Daniels' most reliable targets, with six catches on seven targets for 57 yards last week and 60 and 69 yards in two earlier games. With McLaurin out for the season and Burks banged up, Washington's targets are concentrated, and Okonkwo went from limited to full practice with his hip. The Giants rank 12th against tight ends in DVOA, and a 34.5-yard line is well within his reach. Over 34.5 receiving yards looks like a solid play.
Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Commanders vs. Giants
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Nabers and Okonkwo as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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