Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Week 1 closes with a historic Thursday night matchup as the 49ers and Rams meet in the NFL's first-ever regular-season game in Australia. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this NFC West clash, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

49ers vs. Rams: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

There's no bigger stage to close out Week 1 than a division rivalry game played on the other side of the world at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The Rams went all in this offseason, headlined by a blockbuster trade for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, while the 49ers rebuilt their receiver room through free agency after already losing Ricky Pearsall for the season. Both teams enter with real Super Bowl aspirations, and this NFC West clash should tell us plenty about where each stands early. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 1

Mike Evans NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 3.5 Receptions

Don't expect Purdy to rack up completions in bulk here, but when he does connect, Mike Evans should be on the other end of a good chunk of them. He was one of the 49ers' marquee free agent pickups this offseason and has taken over as the offense's X receiver at a position that's been beaten up by injuries. He was banged up briefly in camp but has since made clear he's good to go for the opener, and this reception line reads light for someone who projects as a true WR1 in target share. George Kittle's role is still murky as he continues to work back from his Achilles tear, which should only funnel more early-game volume toward Evans. A featured receiver like this getting to 3.5 catches is one of the more conservative asks on the slate.

Davante Adams NFL Splash Picks Pick: Anytime TD

It's hard to overstate how good Adams was near the goal line last season, finishing with 14 touchdowns across 14 games for the Rams to lead the league in receiving scores. That level of production isn't a fluke, and there's little reason to think his role in the red zone takes a step back heading into his second year in Los Angeles. His touchdown share could even grow if opposing defenses decide to devote extra coverage to Puka Nacua given everything he's dealing with this offseason. Winning contested catches in small spaces has been the hallmark of Adams' career, and a 49ers secondary still figuring out its own new pieces plays right into that strength. This is the kind of spot where a proven red-zone weapon gets to the end zone.

Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for 49ers vs. Rams

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Evans and Adams as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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