Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Week 6's Sunday slate features a Patriots quarterback riding a two-game surge and a Rams receiver coming off a Monday Night Football record. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 6 slate, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Jets vs. Patriots and Cardinals vs. Rams: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Drake Maye and the Patriots host a Jets defense that ranks among the league's best, while Puka Nacua and the Rams host a 1-4 Cardinals team as double-digit favorites. Both matchups feature offenses that have been rolling, with Maye throwing seven touchdowns over his last two games and the Rams passing more than 50 times in three straight. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this slate.
Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 6
Drake Maye NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Maye has gone from a 1-2 start with one touchdown pass and six interceptions to throwing seven touchdowns over his last two games, including four in last week's 45-17 rout of the Raiders. The Jets are a tough test, ranking fourth in total defense and in pass defense at 175.0 yards per game, but the Patriots are favored by 7.5 at home, and A.J. Brown has returned to practice with a chance to play after missing four games. Maye also rushed for a score last week, so his production does not depend only on the arm. Clearing 1.5 passing touchdowns is a reasonable ask for a quarterback who has hit it in each of his last two games.
Puka Nacua NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 7.5 Receptions
Nacua is coming off a career-high 17 catches and 138 yards, and he has 31 receptions in the three games he has played this season, including nine against Philadelphia. The Rams have attempted more than 50 passes in three consecutive games, and Stafford has leaned on Nacua for volume, targeting him 24 times last week. A groin issue has kept him on the injury report, but the Rams are 12.5-point home favorites against a 1-4 Cardinals team in a game with a total above 51. Another heavy target day makes 7.5 receptions a very attainable number.
Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Week 6 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Maye and Nacua as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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