Let’s finish up Week 7 with another NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook with a division matchup featuring two contenders from the NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles both enter this game at 2-4 and a loss would make the loser’s playoff chances a bit bleaker.

But a win could go a long way and put them right back in the mix for the division crown as the New York Giants sit at 4-2-1 following their impressive win over the Houston Texans on Sunday. But we have playmakers on both sides of the ball and there are injuries opening up value as well. Let’s dig into the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook to make a little more green as we approach the midpoint of the season!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Cowboys vs. Eagles Game Preview

As we gear up for this NFC East matchup, the sportsbooks aren’t projecting a shootout necessarily but there’s DFS production to be found. The Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points while the over/under sits at 43.5 points early Monday morning. Dallas is getting an implied team total of 24 points while Philadelphia is at 19.5 points. 

This matchup may seem a little lopsided on paper because of the injuries and personnel changes regarding the hometown Philadelphia Eagles. Both DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks will miss this game so that presents value within their passing game. But more recently, Lane Johnson retired and the team traded center Cam Jurrgens to the Baltimore Ravens a few weeks ago. The good news for the Eagles is that Saquon Barkley could potentially return for this pivotal game.

The Dallas Cowboys defense currently ranks dead last in EPA/drop back (0.33), 25th in points allowed per game (26.5), and 30th in yards allowed per game (382.5) so if there were ever an opportunity for Philly to get a timely win to keep pace in the NFC East, it would be Monday night.

The Dallas offense started out better than where they are currently ahead of this matchup. They’ve lost back-to-back games and have only scored 29 points in that span. To right the ship and keep pace with the New York Giants in this division, they will need all the firepower they can get as this team had aspirations for a deep playoff run heading into this season.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Eagles Notable Injuries & Inactives

The visiting Dallas Cowboys will likely wait until the very last minute to release their inactives. They’re notoriously one of the last teams to release their inactive reports on Sundays so I would expect them to be very quiet on that front for this divisional primetime matchup. But they have already ruled out wide receiver KaVontae Turpin and they’ll be without linebacker Dee Winters, which is just another blow to their defense.

The Philadelphia Eagles are at least a little more informative heading into this matchup on Monday Night Football. As mentioned above, they’ve already ruled out DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks, so we have value pass catchers available to us on that side. Saquon Barkley is questionable to play but he was able to register a full practice on Saturday. On defense they’ll be without Michael Carter II and Nolan Smith.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/26

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,200

Lamb is among the easier pays on the slate for our MNF DFS picks, especially among players to consider rostering at Captain. Lamb has seen some ridiculous target totals of late. In Week 4 he caught 17-of-21 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown. Last week he caught 9-of-18 targets for 70 yards. On the season he’s gone for 100+ receiving yards in three-of-six games and he has four touchdowns on the year as well.

Volume should funnel Lamb’s way once again. The Eagles allow nearly 8.8 targets per game to slot receivers and Lamb runs over 35% of his routes from the slot. And with no KaVontae Turpin for this game, Lamb could see a little more work out of the slot which looks to be the one spot on the field this Philadelphia secondary struggles to cover.

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $11,200

Opposing offenses are running the ball plenty against the Philadelphia Eagles at 30.2 rush attempts per game which is fifth-most in the league and they’re allowing 119.3 yards per game on the ground which ranks 21st in the NFL. Williams carries some involvement in the passing game (at least two receptions in every game this season) but we’re mostly targeting the touchdown equity with this play as he’s found the end zone eight times through six games.

You might look at his fantasy output and think he’s more of a floor play and you might be right. He’s only gone over 70 rushing yards just once so far this year and he’s yet to earn the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings through six games. But whether this game is competitive or Dallas is leading for most of it, Williams has a good chance of finding the end zone Monday night and if he manages multiple touchdowns (which he’s done twice this year), then he has a good shot at being optimal at Captain.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,800

If he’s able to suit up and give it a go for Monday Night Football, then Barkley’s a pretty easy player to slot in at Captain because he’s rather affordable on both sites. He hasn’t played since Week 4 and even in that game he left very early with his hamstring injury. He was limited in practice Thursday and Friday but logged a full session on Saturday so that does give me some optimism he can suit up Monday night.

We know that his ceiling is very high and there’s no Jalen Hurts in this matchup to steal goal line touchdowns. The Cowboys defense is allowing 149.8 rushing yards per game (second-most in the NFL) and Barkley could do some damage on the ground and we can’t rule out the possibility that he could be involved in the passing game. Tanner McKee targeted his running backs seven times in Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers in a negative game script.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,200

DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are not available for this game for Philadelphia so naturally, Dallas Goedert gets a huge bump and will be a rather trendy Captain selection because he’s so affordable. Goedert has caught six receptions in consecutive games with 17 total targets in that sample size. The absence of Smith and Wicks means that roughly 40% of the targets become available in this offense. Following National Tight End Day, it feels as if Goedert is due for some volume for our MNF DFS picks.

He played 81.3% of the snaps a week ago and should see an uptick in snaps and routes with Philly in need of pass catchers for this matchup. The Cowboys will also be without linebacker Dee Winters for this matchup as he navigates an achilles strain so that simply means we can roster Goedert with a little more conviction.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $12,600

Dak is in the midst of a quintessential ‘Dak Prescott’ season. Everything is there for him to be lighting it up on a weekly basis, but the fantasy football scores are lukewarm. They’re not terrible, but you think the ceiling should be higher. He’s thrown 40+ pass attempts in four consecutive games. And yet, he’s eclipsed 20+ fantasy points just once in that span on DraftKings.

He’s thrown a single touchdown in each of his last four games, and over his last two performances, he’s thrown four interceptions. The good news for Prescott is that the Eagles don’t have a very proactive pass rush. According to Sam Hoppen, they’re 25th in blitz rate (24.9%), 29th in pressure rate (34.2%), and 31st in sack rate (3.4%).

Dak should have plenty of time to distribute the ball around to his elite pass catchers. For that reason, and because of his recent trends, it feels like Prescott works best primarily as a flex option for correlation while his skill position players have a higher ceiling worthy of Captain exposure.

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $9,800

As much as I love George Pickens, I know this might not be the best opportunity for him to reach his ceiling. Earlier in CeeDee Lamb’s section I noted how the Eagles mostly struggle defending receivers out of the slot and Pickens only runs about 7-8% of his routes from the slot. For the most part, he’s going to line up out wide and Philly does defend the perimeter pretty well.

Pickens has provided a fairly consistent floor so far with one spike week. He’s seen 10+ targets in three of his last four games, and he’s passed 70+ receiving yards in four straight games. A lot of that is due to Pickens being such a deep threat as he’s recorded a reception of 20+ yards in three straight games. So that is on the table for this matchup and he could catch a few deep passes. But for this game I want to keep expectations in check and mostly utilize him as a flex play for our MNF DFS picks.

Tanner McKee, QB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $10,000

McKee was serviceable in his start last week but in time he should be expected to improve. He completed 26-of-45 pass attempts for 215 yards and a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in Week 6. This week, things should be a bit easier for him especially if Saquon Barkley can suit up. Sure, the offensive line is in a bit of disarray, but the Dallas pass rush ranks 23rd in blitz rate (25.4%), 22nd in pressure rate (38.0%), and 29th in sack rate (3.9%).

The big concern for McKee is simply that he’s missing two of Philly’s more reliable pass catchers in DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks. That opens up value for this edition of the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook, which we’ll get to below. But fortunately for Philadelphia, this Dallas defense is one of the weakest in the league.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Ryan Flournoy, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $5,400

The price tag for Flournoy is going to tempt several NFL DFS players and rightfully so. He’s affordable and has returned double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games. There are some concerns that the matchup or game script could prevent him from reaching his ceiling. But either way the Eagles have bled production to wide receivers even if most of that has been to pass catchers lining up in the slot.

But with no KaVontae Turpin, Flurnoy’s routes and targets are probably secure. Flournoy has seen at least four targets in every game this year and he has multiple receptions in every contest. He’s also coming off a performance last week where he caught seven receptions. He is more of a secure floor play for our lineups, but he does open up salary as a flex option, yet you can’t imagine there’s an ownership discount here.

Makai Lemon, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $5,800

Lemon has a great opportunity to step up and show the Eagles why they drafted him in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft. He has at least three receptions in all but one game this year so at this price tag, that’s decent value. But with no DeVonta Smith and no Dontayvion Wicks, Lemon has a real shot to breakout against this terrible Dallas defense.

Lemon also has at least six targets in three straight games, but he hasn’t gone for more than 50 receiving yards yet on the season and he’s yet to find the end zone. But obviously he hasn’t had an opportunity like this and the matchup is perfect for him to have a big game. You can definitely get some exposure utilizing him at Captain because you can really play whoever you want in the rest of your lineup.

Darius Cooper, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $5,600

Cooper is going to be another trendy pass catcher on the Philadelphia side. The general consensus seems to be that Dallas Goedert and Makai Lemon could command most of the target share for this matchup. And some people may sleep on Cooper because in Tanner McKee’s start a week ago, Cooper finished with just one catch for nine yards on a pair of targets.

But we have to wipe the slate clean. Cooper is a player with big play upside. He only has eight receptions on the year but half of those have gone for touchdowns. The best ability is availability, and the Eagles are hurting at the wide receiver position. Cooper should get more routes and he can certainly break free for a score against a weak Dallas defense.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Eagles DFS Player Pool, 10/26

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