We close out Week 6 with another NFC matchup in primetime as the Washington Commanders head West to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The Washington Commanders, while having only one win through five games, still have a chance to get back into the mix in the NFC East if they can surprise everybody with a win.

The NFC West, while normally very competitive, currently sees the Seattle Seahawks at 3-3 while the Los Angeles Rams sit at 2-4 after a disastrous loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. So the San Francisco 49ers are sitting pretty atop the division at 5-0 with a chance to extend their lead to three games early in the year if they get this win Monday night. Let’s dig in and look at how this NFC matchup could unfold with the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Commanders vs. 49ers Game Preview

We get another Monday Night Football game on the West coast as the San Francisco 49ers host the Washington Commanders in this primetime affair. The 49ers are the rightful 7.5-point favorites at home and the over/under dropped a little to 51.5 points as of Monday morning. The 49ers have a 29.5-point implied total which gives the Commanders a 22-point implied total.

The Commanders are coming off a very rare tie against the New York Giants last week. It was a comedy of errors that resulted in the Commanders accidentally running the clock out in overtime as they had no way to stop the clock to kick a field goal to win the game. The mental blunder overshadowed the return of Jayden Daniels after he missed Weeks 3 and 4 after a very graphic elbow injury in Week 2 that looked like it would end his season. That obviously wasn’t the case as he rushed for over 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns despite lackluster passing numbers.

The Commanders always have a chance to win with Daniels under center. However, the offensive line will likely force Daniels out of the pocket into more running situations. According to Sam Hoppen, entering Week 6 the Commanders ranked 31st in quick pressure rate allowed (24.4%) and unblocked pressure rate allowed (13.5%). While this does put him at risk, if he’s able to escape the pocket and continue to rack up the rushing totals, then Daniels will possess a very high ceiling each week.

On the other side of the ball, it’s only Week 6, but the San Francisco 49ers are in cruise control with the NFC West. The defending Super Bowl champions, the Seattle Seahawks, fell to 3-3 on the year and you can make the argument they could be 2-4 if it weren’t for Drake Maye making costly mistakes in their Week 1 opener against the New England Patriots. Speaking of 2-4, that is surprisingly the record the Los Angeles Rams are touting after taking a very bad loss to the Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon. If the 49ers, despite all their injuries, can win this matchup, they can sit comfortably with a three-game lead for what is normally a very competitive division.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. 49ers Notable Injuries & Inactives

Both teams have rather colorful injury reports ahead of our MNF DFS picks. The visiting Washington Commanders have already ruled out Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Marcus Mariota on offense. Defensively they’ll be without Charles Omenihu and Javontae Jean-Baptiste while Javon Kinlaw, Tyler Owens, and Jordan Magee are questionable. But on Washington’s offense, we’re monitoring the status of Stefon Diggs who is listed as questionable after missing last week’s game.

The San Francisco 49ers have already ruled out Deebo Samuel while on defense they’ll be without Nick Bosa, Marques Sigle, and Garrett Wallow. It’s also worth mentioning that Dre Greenlaw will be serving his suspension Monday night as well. So the 49ers are a little short-handed on defense, but Mike Evans is also questionable on the offensive side of the ball. So we’ll keep an ear to the ground regarding the status of both Evans and Diggs heading into this matchup.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/19

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $12,200

Believe it or not, I have my reservations about viewing McCaffrey as a Captain candidate for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. And that’s shocking to say because of his volume and role in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. But in previous years he’s been a player with upside for the 100-yard bonuses and gaudy usage in the receiving game.

But that hasn’t been the case this year. He’s averaging just 57.2 rushing yards per game and just 16 touches per game. 16 touches aren’t awful but a year or two ago we would easily guess he was due for 25 touches any given day.

There are some spots of uncertainty for this game and I’d ultimately feel like an idiot not including him in this section if he popped off for a big game. The Commanders have been somewhat of a challenge to run on allowing just 95.4 rushing yards per game, but teams haven’t had an issue racking up targets, receptions, and receiving yards on this defense and CMC still carries involvement in the passing game with at least three receptions in all five games thus far.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $12,000

In previous seasons, I don’t know if I’d put Purdy in this section because he’s always been more of a game manager who had weapons at his disposal who had a higher ceiling. However, things have changed this year. Purdy’s playing at an MVP level. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns (while rushing for another), and he only has two turnovers. He hasn’t reached the 300-yard bonus yet on DraftKings but there will be certain matchups down the line that require that kind of performance. But Purdy’s also running more with 25+ rushing yards in four-of-five games this year.

According to Sam Hoppen, entering Week 6, Purdy ranked second among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play (0.38) and he was first in pressure-to-sack rate (5.6%) which is a testament to his pass protection. He’s also top 10 in completion percentage over expected (4.9%) and whether this game is a blowout or can stay competitive, Purdy is a safe bet to produce for our MNF DFS picks.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,200

Daniels’ passing volume and numbers haven’t been all too noteworthy through three games. But after missing Weeks 3 and 4, Daniels showed no signs of rust in his return last week. He completed 17-of-25 pass attempts for just 199 passing yards, but he rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns. In just three starts, Daniels has already rushed for 203 yards and that is why he’s appearing in this section. We want the rushing upside, and Daniels offers plenty of it.

Is there a concern with this matchup? Yes. For as many injuries as the 49ers have accumulated so far this year, the defense has really kept opposing quarterbacks in check. Per ESPN, the 49ers allow the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.1 yards) and they’ve yielded the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position. And mind you, Daniels hasn’t thrown for 200+ yards in six straight games dating back to last year.

But we’ll keep him in this section because of the immense upside and the 49ers defense will be without Bosa and Greenlaw as noted above. Whether this game is competitive, or if Washington is given garbage time to work with, there will be opportunities for him to rack up fantasy production.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $10,000

With so much uncertainty and a few injuries to monitor, Kittle emerges as a rather reliable Captain candidate for our Commanders vs. 49ers DFS picks. Kittle’s seeing decent volume but it hasn’t been immense so far this year. But he at least has four touchdowns in his last four games, and in that span he also has three games with 70+ receiving yards.

Kittle is actually commanding a 24.7% first-read target share which is top five among qualified tight ends and Deebo Samuel, who has a 14.1% target share on the year, will be unavailable for this game. When defenses offer up heavy blitz packages, quarterbacks tend to lean more on their first read and most reliable targets. This could potentially funnel more targets to CMC as a quick check down option for Purdy. Or that could get more targets to Kittle over the middle. Laddering Kittle’s props could be a fun way to bet this game, and this could be Kittle’s first ceiling game since Washington hasn’t defended the tight end position well.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Mike Evans, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,600

I don’t typically like highlighting players who are injured and could possibly miss the game when doing the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. Mike Evans carries a questionable tag for tonight’s game as he’s worked in a limited capacity in San Francisco’s last two practice sessions.

Evans has been simply electric when the ball has been in his hands in this offense. He’s scored three times already this season and last week against the Seattle Seahawks, he caught 7-of-10 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. Evans touts a 23.9% target share with Deebo Samuel out and the Commanders, despite having an active pass rush, do allow opposing offenses to score on 83.3% of drives that get into the red zone. When the 49ers are close, I imagine they’ll take shots to both Kittle and Evans as they get closer to the goal line.

If Evans is unable to suit up for this game then we’ll obviously pivot by either getting more shares of some of the players listed above, or we can find some nice value on the San Francisco side.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

Diggs, like Mike Evans, is carrying a questionable tag heading into this Monday Night Football matchup. So similarly, if Diggs is ruled out then we have some nice value opening up on the Washington side. But if Diggs suits up, then we at least have a player priced in the mid-range that is commanding nice volume.

Diggs is averaging 4.5 receptions per game on 7.75 targets per game. The downside is that his ceiling has been rather non-existent. Prior to missing last week’s game, he had three consecutive performances with fewer than 50 receiving yards. And to that point, he doesn’t have a single game with over 60 receiving yards this year. 

The good news is that Diggs commands a 20.4% target share. So if he’s out then those targets go elsewhere. If he’s active, then he should be involved. For as good as the 49ers defense has been at times, they do allow 2.47 seconds on average for quarterbacks to release the ball. That ranks bottom eight in the NFL.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,400

If Diggs is due to miss this game, then that’s a great boost for Terry McLaurin. McLaurin may not see the target volume Diggs gets, but Scary Terry does get deeper targets, and has arguably the higher ceiling as he’s gone for 50+ receiving yards in his last three games.

The 49ers have only allowed opposing offenses to average right around 200 passing yards per game but the Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs for this matchup and the game script could necessitate more passing by Washington. The Commanders still have a 22-point implied team total so they could be chasing the 49ers while still producing in this matchup. If that’s the case, Washington will make use of all their pass catchers so it seems like McLaurin is due for some deeper looks even if Diggs does play.

Rachaad White, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $5,600

White is going to be a trendy value option on both sites, but especially FanDuel. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has already been ruled out for this game so that likely means the Commanders lean on White and Austin Ekeler, who will make the player pool at the bottom of the article. JCM’s absence leaves about 10-to-12 touches vacated for tonight’s game so these cheaper running backs on Washington get an instant boost.

White has never been the most efficient runner. Even during his tenure with Tampa Bay, he was almost more of a PPR cheat code because of his involvement in the passing game. But even with JCM in the lineup so far this year, White has seen seven or eight carries each game and he gets a little involved in the passing game, which is not surprising at all.

White has caught all 10 of his targets on the year and the 49ers allow the most receptions to opposing running backs (7.4 per game), so whether the Commanders can hang with the 49ers, or if this is a blowout where Washington has to abandon the run, White seems like he has a clear path to double-digit fantasy points.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Antonio Williams, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $5,200

After reading Andrew Cooper’s NFL DFS Tight End Coach frequently over the last few years, I’ve leaned into fading the tight ends facing the San Francisco 49ers defense. If Fred Warner is active, I’m going to lay off the opposing offense’s tight end. But Washington could certainly throw the ball plenty. So while I won’t highlight Chig Okonkwo, he’ll still make the table below.

Instead I’ll highlight Washington’s talented rookie receiver, Antonio Williams, who was a Day 2 pick out of Clemson in this year’s NFL Draft. Williams has had some bright moments so far this year. He’s averaging about three receptions per game, but he hasn’t scored since Week 1 and that was also the last time he provided over 40 receiving yards, but he did have an 87-yard touchdown called back in Week 4. He largely operates in three wide receiver sets, but if Diggs doesn’t suit up for this game then we can play Williams with a little more optimism.

Kaelon Black, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $3,400

Black gave every CMC manager a scare in Week 1 when he managed 15 touches in his first NFL game. Since then, he’s been getting five-to-seven touches per game. So while CMC is still the workhorse in this offense, Black is getting some work. Truthfully, I’d rather take some shots on San Francisco’s value pass catchers, who we’ll get to shortly.

Black does have a little bit of “narrative street” heading into this game. He missed practice on Saturday due to the birth of his child so you can imagine a scenario where he scores a touchdown late in the second half and cradles the football like a baby to celebrate. But a game script like that might require a blowout. But if you’ve seen him carry the football, he runs incredibly hard and looks like he’s capable of breaking off some big runs.

Brandin Cooks, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $4,400

Deebo Samuel has been ruled out and Mike Evans is questionable. So naturally, we are looking at value on the San Francisco side even if Evans does play. Cooks isn’t the player he used to be and he doesn’t have a ton of experience in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. But at the end of the day there are opportunities here.

We’re also kind of throwing darts in this range with San Francisco’s pass catchers. Cooks is in play despite the fact he’s only appeared in two games with the 49ers. But we also have to see what happens with Christian Kirk. Kirk started the season on injured reserve, but his practice window opened up this week and he participated in a limited capacity. So Kirk is a name we could utilize as well.

And lastly, don’t sleep on Jacob Cowing. Cowing has seen a couple opportunities to get touches in three straight games. He just hasn’t done anything with them. But he also should serve as the team’s returner on special teams Monday night, so he has a little correlation for large-field GPP’s with San Francisco’s DST.

Kyle Juszczyk, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $1,400 | FanDuel: $2,000

Juszczyk is a punt option if you do find yourself needing even more salary relief. That might seem likely just given the injuries at the top of the board and the value we can find among the other pass catchers for both teams. But if you need a punt then you can consider San Francisco’s fullback.

He does have a pair of receptions in two of his last three games and he even scored back in Week 2 in a 35-13 blowout over the Miami Dolphins. Again, this play is an absolute longshot and I wouldn’t go this route in single-entry or three-entry contests. Juice is the kind of play you should only be considering for large-field tournaments where you can max enter 150 lineups.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. 49ers DFS Player Pool, 10/19

Player Pool

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