Week 4 finishes up with a matchup straight out of the NFC South as the Atlanta Falcons head to the bayou to take on the New Orleans Saints. This game serves the 20th anniversary of the “Domecoming” when the city of New Orleans re-opened the Superdome following the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

The biggest moment from that game came from Steve Gleason’s infamous blocked punt that resulted in a touchdown for the home team. The Saints would go on to win that game 23-3 and for Monday night’s matchup they’re set to have plenty of festivities celebrating this anniversary.

But at the end of the day, we are here to look at the top NFL DFS Showdown picks for Monday night’s matchup. We have some elite plays and interesting defensive options for our MNF DFS picks. Let’s take a look at the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook and wrap up the week in the green!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Falcons vs. Saints Game Preview

As we’ve seen in previous seasons, the NFC South is wide open until the very end of the season. You have to go back to the 2021 NFL season to find a team from this division that won at least 11 games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won this division two years ago with 10 wins. In 2022, the Bucs won with just eight wins. The other three teams each had seven. In 2023, the Bucs again won the division but with nine wins. The Saints also had nine wins but lost the tiebreaker. The Falcons had seven wins that year. A year ago, the Carolina Panthers, Saints, and Falcons each had eight wins. But the Panthers were crowned the division winner. Every game matters in this division so it’s no different for this Monday Night Football matchup.

Both the Saints and Falcons enter this primetime affair at 1-2. The Falcons looked like one of the bigger jokes in the league through two games. But once they got Michael Penix back for their Week 3 matchup against the Green Bay Packers, the offense looked functional.

Perhaps the biggest concern for Atlanta was on the defensive side of the ball. Jalon Walker tore his ACL in training camp. James Pearce Jr. is still serving an eight-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy due to an offseason domestic violence dispute. The Falcons entered Week 4 ranking 31st in blitz rate (18.4%) but they’re surprisingly first in pressure rate (47.1%) and they’re very tough to run on. According to Sam Hoppen, the Falcons are top seven in EPA/rush (-0.23), yards before contact per attempt (0.21), stuffed run rate (23.4%), and rush success rate (34.0%). If the offense finds its groove this team could make some noise in the NFC playoff picture.

Despite the Saints sitting at 1-2 they’ve been competitive against some formidable opponents so far. They went to overtime in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions but took the loss. But then they went on the road and beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. But they did lose in Week 3 to the Las Vegas Raiders, but the Raiders are no longer a doormat for other NFL teams, so that loss may look pretty good long-term.

Tyler Shough has really emerged as an absolute gem that the Saints found in the 2025 NFL Draft. Entering Week 4 he’s already thrown for 917 yards. Chris Olave is sitting at 27 receptions for 375 yards through three games. There’s plenty of volume and offensive opportunities to go around. But can they hold their own against this Falcons defense? The pass rush for Atlanta has been effective and they have yet to allow 70 rushing yards to an opposing offense.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Saints Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Atlanta Falcons really only have two players on defense who are listed as questionable. Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam are both dealing with hamstring injuries and were limited in practice last week, but Ebukam did practice on Saturday.

The New Orleans Saints have already ruled out three players on defense: Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson, and Anfernee Jennings. The only other players listed as questionable are linebacker Peter Werner, who hasn’t practiced at all this week. Noah Fant was limited in practice all last week and he’s listed as questionable as well.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/5

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $13,400

Not much obviously needs to be said about Bijan Robinson on a Showdown slate. There’s clear volume with this play as he has at least 19 touches in all three games to start this season. In two of those games, he managed at least 29 touches. We also know he’s a threat to get the 100-yard rushing bonus on DraftKings and to be perfectly honest, he could even get the 100-yard receiving bonus in a game like this.

In six career games against the Saints, he’s scored five touchdowns while averaging over 100 total yards. The Saints are allowing 115.7 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Bijan’s also going to get opportunities to score because he’s averaging six carries per game inside the red zone. He offers probably the best floor on the slate in addition one of the highest ceilings. We should anticipate nearly 70-80% ownership overall in tournaments and like;y 18-22% ownership at Captain.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $12,200

While the Falcons pass rush has made an impact with minimal blitzing, they are bleeding production to opposing wide receivers. Through three games, the Falcons are allowing the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts and the third-most receptions to the position. Funny enough that’s exactly where Olave is thriving. He’s seen at least eight receptions in each of his first three games and he’s found the 100-yard receiving bonus in two performances as well.

The Falcons recently placed A.J. Terrell on IR with a groin injury a couple weeks ago so that likely explains why the Falcons are surrendering 201.3 yards per game to opposing receivers in addition to 14.3 catches per game to the position.

Olave will carry some ownership across the board for our MNF DFS picks but he probably won’t be as outrageously owned as Robinson. But overall, we’re kicking off this NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook with two superstars off to incredibly hot starts.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $10,800

We’re all very well aware of London’s splits with-and-without Michael Penix at quarterback. In Weeks 1 and 2 he had just six catches on nine targets for 80 total yards. Then last week, in Penix’s first game of the season, London popped for nine receptions on 10 targets for 194 yards. In six of his last seven games with Penix under center, London has at least six receptions for 100+ receiving yards. And in that seven-game sample size he has six touchdowns. In 15 career games with Penix at quarterback, London now has 100 catches, 1,480 yards, and nine touchdowns.

The Saints have been prone to getting torched by the top wideout on the opposing offense. Moreover, London was just targeted on 40% of his routes a week ago. If you’re of the mindset that Atlanta can win this game then London works well as a leverage Captain that will maybe garner 10-15% ownership at Captain which could be half of Bijan’s ownership. In this case, I’m not opposed to going somewhat overweight at Captain with London considering he could see volume once again. And it feels like he’s due for a touchdown as well.

Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,800

It’s not often that I’ll mention a quarterback as a Captain recommendation when he doesn’t possess a ton of rushing upside. However, Shough has rushed for 20+ yards in back-to-back games. And he has some ball security issues because he’s fumbled five times through three games. Three of those fumbles were recovered by the opposing defense.

Shough largely makes this section because of his passing volume. The Saints rank 21st in rushing yards per game and the Falcons have been very difficult to run on. So it definitely feels like the Saints keep pace and put up offensive production through the air.

Shough hasn’t really been efficient but he gets enough volume where he can hit pay dirt for our NFL DFS lineups. Shough has only hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings just once through three games. However, he’s thrown for at least 250 passing yards in each game while averaging over 40 pass attempts per game. He also has eight passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown so far this year. On a slate like this, with some capable big performances from the skill position players, a quarterback like Shough may not draw heavy ownership at Captain but it does feel like the kind of matchup and game environment where 350+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes are on the table.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,600

Penix isn’t the preferred quarterback option on the slate. Most will, and should, target Tyler Shough. But Penix has the luxury of a few playmakers at his disposal who can help pad his stats. And if you’re leaning into Bijan or London at Captain, then Penix makes sense for correlation as a Flex option.

In his first start last week, he only attempted 25 passes, but he completed 72% of them for 256 yards and a touchdown. We know he has the obvious connection with Drake London and he has some good momentum from the off-the-field news that he and his wife are expecting their first child. He likely doesn’t have the ceiling of some other players in this game. But if he can deliver 250+ passing yards once again and multiple touchdowns, then he has a path to 20+ fantasy points for our MNF DFS picks.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $8,600

You can certainly pivot to Devaughn Vele on this slate who is a fine play as well. Given how much Tyler Shough throws the ball, you get the sense that there’s enough to go around for everybody. Vele’s caught 15-of-22 targets this year but he hasn’t popped for 70+ receiving yards yet.

So I do like leaning into Juwan Johnson, who has caught all 12 of his targets over his last two games and he’s found the end zone three times this year already. Similar to Vele, Johnson hasn’t gone for over 70 receiving yards yet either. But he’s caught at least three passes for 50+ yards in each game and he has the previously mentioned touchdowns.

The Falcons have already given up three touchdowns to opposing tight ends and the position has seen 23 targets against the Dirty Birds. The matchup is in his favor and he has some appeal as a Captain/MVP option, so he certainly seems well worth the price tag for our MNF DFS picks.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $4,600

I cannot make a strong argument for Pitts based on the production through three games. Would I recommend him as a play in season-long leagues? Absolutely not. But for DFS, it seems irresponsible to not get some exposure. This is just one game and you have to take some risks. Pitts strikes me as someone who may go overlooked because of the lack of production through three games.

The matchup isn’t awful at all. The Saints have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (247) to opposing tight ends in addition to the second-most targets (34) and receptions (25) to the position. And let’s not forget that Pitts did sign a three-year, $54 million extension with the team in the offseason. The team absolutely wants to get him involved to get a return on their investment. Pitts has just two receptions for 20 yards through three games, which isn’t going to cut it. So go into this game with a clean slate and take some chances because the matchup is in Pitts’ favor.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $7,400

The Falcons have not been easy to run on. Their defense is number one in rushing yards allowed per game (47.7) and the Saints are largely operating with a three-headed monster of a backfield while Travis Etienne set to miss additional time. So Alvin Kamara will make the player pool below. But in a bad matchup for running backs, if my hand is forced into playing a running back from the Saints, I’d prefer to save salary with Miller or even C.J. Donaldson.

Miller could certainly lead the Saints in rushing attempts but again, it’s such a tough matchup to feel optimistic about any New Orleans running back. According to Sam Hoppen, the Falcons defense ranks fifth in EPA/rush (-0.23) and third in yards before contact per attempt (0.21).

But you have to get exposure to some value plays on this slate. Miller and Donaldson, despite the bad matchup, open up a little value so you have to take some risks even if they manage to hit pay dirt with one big play.

Brian Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $5,800

The other “B. Robinson” on the Atlanta Falcons is in play at a very tempting price tag and I’m fairly close to considering him as a core play. I don’t love the idea of playing him at Captain, but if you do you can easily fit the likes of Bijan, London, Olave, and Shough in a build. From there you have to punt for the final player in that particular build.

The crazy thing is that a strategy like that could work out. Robinson is incredibly cheap and he’s averaging over 10 touches per game. And the Saints have not been good at stopping the run. The Saints run defense ranks 28th in rushing yards before contact per attempt (1.73) and they’re 31st in rush success rate (50%). Through three games the Saints rank bottom five in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs. Robinson will likely be the most popular value play on the slate given the matchup and potential for 10-to-12 touches.

Bryce Lance, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $1,800 | FanDuel: $2,800

When trying to find the ideal “punt” option to wrap up the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook, it wasn’t easy but I settled on Bryce Lance. But I’ll obviously share more in the Player Pool tables below.

What worries me about going for punt options on the Falcons is the fact that Penix may not even reach 30 pass attempts. And we saw last week that with Penix, the offensive touches can be rather consolidated.

With New Orleans, there’s volume to go around if Shough is throwing the ball 40+ times. And that’s what I’ll lean into. Lance has seen at least three targets in two of his first three games. More importantly, last week he was on the field for 54-of-68 offensive snaps so there is opportunity. If you’d rather pay up for the likes of Austin Hooper or Zachariah Branch on the Atlanta side, that gets a bit muddy because those two typically see less than 50% of the offensive snaps. It’s obviously not a slam dunk when targeting a player in this range but if I had to I’d go with Lance since the Saints are giving him more snaps on offense.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Saints DFS Player Pool, 10/5

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