Welcome to the NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football Showdown Slate!

Another bizarre week in the NFL as potential playoff contenders like the Bills, Cowboys, Titans and Packers all lost while most of the top quarterbacks in the game failed to deliver for fantasy. Sure, we had some momentous performances like Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler who combined for nine touchdowns, but overall, this was a tough week.

While this match-up between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants looks like it could be easy to read, if we’ve learned anything this season, it won’t be. Tom Brady is crushing it during his home games, but Tampa is 3-6 against the spread this season and have to cover a lot of ground to do so. Of course, they happen to also be 3-1 ATS at home this season, so maybe it is. Meanwhile, there are question marks surrounding the Giants tonight as we wait for final confirmation on Saquon Barkley’s game status as well as which wideouts will be available for Daniel Jones. This should certainly make Showdown lineups an interesting build.

Now before we begin, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -10.5

O/U: 50

Weather: cloudy with temperatures in the high-60s; winds NW 6 mph

Notable Injuries:

New York Giants

Saquon Barkley, RB – ankle (questionable)

Devontae Booker, RB – hip (questionable)

Sterling Shepard, WR – hamstring (out)

Lorenzo Carter, LB – ankle (out)

Logan Ryan, FS – COVID (questionable)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Antonio Brown, WR – ankle (out)

Rob Gronkowski, TE – back (questionable)

Vita Vea, NT – knee (doubtful)

DVOA Defensive Rankings

Giants

vs Pass: 11th 

vs Run: 30th 

Buccaneers

vs Pass: 12th 

vs Run: 4th 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Tom Brady, QB TB – The numbers at home are staggering as Brady is averaging 319.3 passing yards per game with an 18:2 TD:INT over four home games. We know he likes to spread the ball around, so if we believe the Bucs will put up some points on a Giants defense that is allowing 24 per game this season, Brady seems like the clear-cut no-brainer in the captain’s seat tonight.

Rob Gronkowski, TE TB – Nobody shines brighter during a prime-time game than Gronk and wouldn’t you know it, he’s somehow ready to play tonight after missing six games with a bad back. He actually did make an appearance during the New Orleans game, but was limited to one target and played just five snaps. The Giants rank 14th in DVOA against the tight end, so expect Brady and Gronk to team up multiple times tonight.

Daniel Jones, QB NYG – The Bucs secondary is their biggest weakness and if you believe Tampa will put up points early, then Jones is going to have to do a lot of throwing just to keep pace. While Sterling Shepard will miss another game, Jones still has an array of pass-catchers to find downfield. Coming off a bye week, it’s tough to tell who his favorite target will be, so we’ll just collect shares of all of them by using Jones.

Mid-Tier

Chris Godwin, WR TB – You can expect the Bucs to go after slot-corner Darnay Holmes a lot in this one as he seems to be the weakest link in coverage. While the Bucs like to move their receivers around, Godwin has run 67-percent of his snaps out of the slot and should be the heavy lean, especially with the physical advantages he has over him. 

Leonard Fournette, RB TB – Yes, Brady likes to take center stage both at home and in prime-time, but the team would be foolish not to exploit this match-up on the ground. Fournette has been solid this season with a 4.3 yards per carry average and the Giants, who allow the 10th-most rushing yards per game, are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.

Saquon Barkley, RB NYG – The overall match-up isn’t great as the Bucs are allowing fewer than 80 rushing yards per game which is the lowest in the NFL, but Barkley can definitely be an explosive runner, so long as his ankle issues are in his rearview mirror. What could really work in his favor, specially if the Giants are playing from behind, is that Tampa ranks 26th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, allowing just over 51 yards per game to them. 

Mike Evans, WR TB – He’s scored at least one touchdown in three-straight games and actually have seven in his last five. He’s always a threat to score and doesn’t need a world of targets or catches to put up fantasy points for your team.  The Bucs will try to move him around a bunch to avoid James Bradberry in coverage, so don’t get hung up on the coverage match-up. 

Kadarius Toney, WR NYG – The target share has been erratic, but with no Sterling Shepard, you can expect Toney to be more heavily involved in this one as we expect the Giants to be throwing a bunch. The Bucs have had a ton of injuries in the secondary and have yet to really settle on a regular slot-corner. You could see Dee Delaney, Ross Cockrell or even Mike Edwards, none of whom are going to shut down Toney in this one.

Kenny Golladay, WR NYG – He’s not the can’t-miss wideout he once was as injuries have gotten the better of him over the last two years, but he’s supposedly healthy right now and should be able to handle both Jamel Dean and Pierre Desir in coverage. He lists as the Giants’ No. 1 wideout so we can expect a heavy workload coming his way. The only question is, can he handle it? If building multiple lineups, you’ll want a piece of him. 

Evan Engram, TE NYG – The Bucs rank 19th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Engram has touchdowns in each of his last two games and will see the targets in this one as it seems to be a vulnerable spot for the Bucs.

Buccaneers D/ST – Tampa Bay has 15 takeaways this season, which is sixth-most in the NFL, while the Giants have turned the ball over 11 times this season. Daniel Jones has already thrown five interceptions and lost three fumbles this season, so if he gets frazzled by the Bucs pass-rush, mistakes could be made.

Dart Throws

Tyler Johnson, WR TB – With Gronk, Godwin and Evans all running around on the field, Johnson won’t see many targets come his way. However, he’s become a trusted pass-catcher for Brady with Antonio Brown sidelined and has now seen an uptick in targets over the last two games. If he can get some looks inside the red zone, he could be worth the roster spot.

Kyle Rudolph, TE NYG – While Engram is the lead tight end, Rudolph has still managed to steal a few targets here and there. He’s a big-bodied red zone target who won’t get you much in yardage, but could sneak into the end zone for a low-cost touchdown.

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