We wrap up Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season with a matchup straight out of the AFC West. The Denver Broncos visit Arrowhead Stadium for a tilting matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. After nine straight division titles, the Chiefs were dethroned by these very Broncos a year ago. It was certainly a down year for Kansas City after they went 6-11, but they’re looking to make another playoff push and get back to their winning ways.

This stadium will be loud and it could turn into a defensive slugfest between these two bitter rivals. But both teams feature quarterbacks returning from lower body injuries sustained within the last nine months. And both offenses have a shiny new toy they’ll both look to utilize heavily in this matchup. Let’s close out the first week of the season with one more NFL DFS Showdown Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Broncos vs. Chiefs Game Preview

The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs for an AFC West clash later this evening. The Broncos are coming off their first division title since 2015, ending Kansas City’s stretch of nine consecutive seasons sitting atop the division. And if it weren’t for an ill-timed ankle injury to Bo Nix in the postseason, the Broncos likely would’ve gone to the Super Bowl.

Both teams enter this year with big aspirations. Both quarterbacks are also coming off season-ending injuries within the last nine months and they both are forced to go against high level defenses. Vegas is currently showing the Chiefs favored by 2.5 points and the over/under is sitting at just 43.5 points. These two teams met twice a year ago. Their Week 11 matchup saw 41 total points. The rematch in Week 17 didn’t see the full allotment of Kansas City’s offense, and the game yielded just 33 total points.

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL last December so his mobility is likely going to be limited Monday night. Bo Nix is making his return from a broken ankle sustained this past January during the playoffs. Similarly, both teams made big splashes in the offseason to improve their offenses from a year ago.

The Chiefs signed running back Kenneth Walker to a big deal after his phenomenal run with the Seattle Seahawks on the way to their second Super Bowl title. By all accounts, it certainly seems like the Chiefs want to take a heavy approach on the ground this season so Mahomes isn’t being relied on too much. The Broncos went out and acquired Jaylen Waddle in a trade with the Miami Dolphins to give their young quarterback another weapon on offense.

This may not be the prettiest game on paper when it’s all said and done. The Broncos defense didn’t experience too much turnover and they return a lot of the same core from a year ago. The Chiefs, on the other hand, did lose some pieces in the secondary so I imagine the Broncos will want to get the aerial attack going to expose any potential weaknesses among Kansas City’s defensive backs.

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Chiefs Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Denver Broncos have a largely clean injury report heading into Monday Night Football. Marvin Mims popped up with a foot injury, but he was a full participant in practice on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. But be sure to double check Denver’s inactives before kickoff as we may see a few healthy scratches not suit up.

The hometown Kansas City Chiefs have only listed Chamarri Conner and Josh Simmons as out for this Monday Night Football matchup. The loss of Simmons is far from ideal considering the heavy blitz packages the Broncos are sure to deploy. We’ll need to be on the lookout for inactives leading up to kickoff. Cyrus Allen is listed in the player pool as a value play, but he is a candidate that could be listed as a healthy scratch.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 9/14

Kenneth Walker, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $10,800

After struggling to find a reliable running back option the last few seasons, the Chiefs brought in Kenneth Walker via free agency and the plan is for him to emerge as the team’s bell cow. Coming off his phenomenal Super Bowl run with the Seattle Seahawks where he averaged over 25 fantasy points per game, Walker is slated for a heavy workload in his debut with his new team.

And keep in mind, as good as Patrick Mahomes has historically been scrambling out of the pocket when necessary, he’s coming off his own injury from last season so I don’t believe Andy Reid and Co. want to see him running too much.

The big concern with any skill position player in this matchup for the Chiefs is that it’s going to be a difficult game given the nature of the Broncos defense. They have a great pass rush, they’re tough against the run, and they have an elite secondary. But if there’s a player with a path to 20+ touches in this game, it’s likely Walker.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $11,400

Rashee Rice, like the quarterbacks in this game, is also coming off his own knee injury from last season. Rice had a “cleanup” procedure on his knee in the offseason, and then promptly had to serve 30 days in jail for violating his probation. And mind you, he was placed on season-ending IR last year due to lingering concussion symptoms.

The good news for Rice is that he’s due to get targets as Mahomes’ favorite pass catching option. The bad news is that the Broncos do a great job defending most skill positions. Rice himself is averaging under 10 fantasy points per game against Denver. In three career games against the Mile High Ponies, Rice is averaging just 55.3 receiving yards per game and hasn’t found the end zone against this defense. Moreover, quarterback production obviously correlates with their pass catchers’ production. And the Broncos only allowed 15+ fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on five occasions a year ago.

Because of Rice’s upside, I am keeping him in the top section as a Captain/MVP candidate because the first three players for our MNF DFS picks still possess a great floor/ceiling combination despite the difficult matchups across the board.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $9,600

Waddle will be a trendy play. We do seem to know what to expect from Rashee Rice. But the unknown/untapped upside of Waddle is similar to that of Walker as both make their debuts with a new team. The Broncos gave up three picks from the 2026 NFL Draft to acquire Waddle, including their first-round pick (30th overall). They wanted to get Bo Nix another weapon, and Waddle is one of the best route runners a team could acquire.

During his time in Miami with Tyreek Hill as his teammate, Waddle largely played second fiddle. But when Hill was off the field or missed time due to injury, Waddle averaged 0.29 targets per route run and 2.84 yards per route run across 519 routes. According to Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points, both those results would have ranked top 10 at the wide receiver position.

The Broncos also ranked top five in pass rate over expected last season and have talked about using more pre-snap motion now that they have Waddle. So I expect Sean Payton to get creative with Waddle and this is an intriguing matchup for Denver’s new offensive weapon as the Chiefs lost both Trent McDuffie (via trade) and Jaylen Watson (via free agency) to the Los Angeles Rams in the offseason.

Denver Broncos, DST – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $6,800

I don’t typically go for this kind of Captain/MVP selection but for the first NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook of the season, I’m willing to make an exception. These two teams meet twice each year as division rivals. Denver won both matchups from a year ago and held the Chiefs to under 20 points in each contest. But to be fair, the second matchup came in Week 17 when the Chiefs had already lost some key offensive pieces.

But it’s no secret the Broncos boasted one of the elite defenses in the NFL last season. According to ESPN Analytics, the Broncos ranked top eight in pass rush win rate (45%), run stop win rate (32%), pass block win rate (68%), and run block win rate (74%). The Broncos totaled 68 sacks in the regular season in 2025 which was 11 more than the next closest team, the Atlanta Falcons.

With this being Patrick Mahomes’ first game since coming back from injury, I think you can certainly get some exposure to the Broncos DST as your Captain. This game features an over/under of 43.5 points as of Monday morning and the Broncos are only slight underdogs on the road. And we know this pass rush will take advantage of the absence of Josh Simmons to try and disrupt any momentum for Kansas City.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $11,800

It’ll likely surprise people that I’m not highlighting Patrick Mahomes in this article. He’ll make the player pool below but with him returning from injury and this game having such a low total, I don’t think this is necessarily a smash spot or a game where we see “prime” Mahomes. I refer you back to my note from above; The Broncos allowed 15+ fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in just five games last season.

To be fair, it may be a rather modest outing from Bo Nix as well. Nix suffered a broken ankle on the third-to-last play of last year’s AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Buffalo Bills. I’m expecting his mobility to be limited as well. But we already mentioned the addition of Jaylen Waddle and how his presence could spark a new look for this Broncos offense.

From a lineup construction perspective, Nix is going to correlate well as a flex play with any of his pass catchers you plug in at Captain. And the game script is there to use Walker as a Captain and Nix in the flex if the Chiefs do take a run-heavy approach with their big free agent acquisition. Overall, I am a bit down on the quarterbacks in this matchup, but I give the slight edge to Nix especially with some uncertainty regarding Kansas City’s secondary.

RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos - DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $8,200

Harvey came on very strong towards the end of his rookie campaign last year and it’s like we all forget that he scored a dozen touchdowns in his first year in the NFL. That tidbit seems to get written off more than it should. Harvey also came on strong in the passing game later in the year.

Following the team’s Week 12 Bye, Harvey saw 26 targets over the team’s final six regular season games. And then Denver’s playoff games he saw six targets in each contest.

As a pure runner, his not very efficient. He averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt in the regular season and then 3.0 yards per attempt in Denver’s two playoff games. So if he’s going to give us any fantasy production, it’s likely going to be in the passing game. The good news for our MNF DFS picks, he’s not too expensive where the rushing numbers scare me away. The pricing on both sites is reasonable for a running back with a path to 12+ touches and involvement in the passing game.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,200

Kelce turns 37 next month and it’s clear his best years are behind him. But if there’s a time when I’m willing to play Travis Kelce in fantasy football, or for DFS, then it’s going to be Week 1 since this is arguably the healthiest he’ll be all season.

And despite the possibility this may be his final season, even a year ago he was a serviceable tight end in the fantasy landscape. He caught 76 passes for 851 yards with five touchdowns. In the two games against Denver last year, Kelce caught 14 passes on 19 targets for 127 yards and a touchdown. And in the second game against Denver, he didn’t even have Mahomes feeding him the ball.

He’s fresh off a training camp with no injury designation and with uncertainty regarding some of Kansas City’s pass catchers, Kelce has always been a constant for Mahomes. If/when this team makes its way into the red zone, it’s likely Mahomes is looking for one of his most reliable targets.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

JK Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $8,800

So while I did write up RJ Harvey in a promising fashion, I will admit that I’m a bit more bullish on Dobbins for this game. Running back targets tend to be more frequent against zone coverage schemes and with Steve Spagnuolo’s Cover 0 blitz packages, the Kansas City secondary leans more into man coverage. Targets for Harvey could be limited Monday night.

So if that’s going to be the case, I do like Dobbins a decent amount and Dobbins has done well in the past as a team’s RB1 so long as he’s healthy. And it was Dobbins’ injury a year ago that paved the way for Harvey’s emergence late in the year.

Dobbins found the end zone in four of Denver’s first five games last season. Moreover, he went for 70+ rushing yards in 7-of-10 games last year and he had just one performance with fewer than 60 rushing yards. And wouldn’t you know it, the Broncos are listing him atop their running back depth chart heading into Week 1.

Cyrus Allen, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $1,600

If you’re a sucker for buying into the rookie receiver getting hype at Chiefs training camp, then Cyrus Allen is certainly for you. Allen got rave reviews in camp and was involved plenty during the preseason. If there are any issues with Rashee Rice’s knee, then it’s possible we see a larger role for Allen as the season progresses.

But part of the reason we should maybe pump the brakes on this kid is that he’s currently listed as the fifth receiver on the team’s depth chart. And we see rookie receivers get plenty of hype in training camp and then fail to materialize in the regular season (looking at you, Jalen Royals).

But we also haven’t seen Xavier Worthy necessarily live up to the billing of a first-round draft selection. While the matchup and opportunities aren’t in his favor, Allen is the type of player who can break a big play or two with just a handful of opportunities.

Tyquan Thornton, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,200

Thornton could very well be the safer option if we choose not to roll the dice on a rookie receiver like Allen. Thornton is listed as a starter on KC’s depth chart, but he likely comes off the field for two-receiver sets. But he clearly has big play upside that we need to acknowledge.

Thornton scored three touchdowns a year ago and they all came in the first four weeks of the season. Of his 19 receptions in 2025, over half of them went for 20+ yards. Volume is the big concern with Thornton. But he has big play upside and there are certainly bigger names the Broncos defense will be focused on. If he takes a deep pass for a touchdown, he’s likely hitting the optimal lineup as a value option for our NFL DFS picks on Monday Night Football.

Pat Bryant, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $2,400

I’ll be brief on Pat Bryant as we close out our Broncos vs. Chiefs DFS picks but he did come on strong towards the end of his rookie campaign in 2025. His playoff box scores weren’t great. But overall, he was getting more run toward the end of the regular season.

In Week 11 last year, against the Chiefs, Bryant caught five-of-six targets for 82 yards. In four games following the team’s Bye week he averaged six targets per game but failed to go over 50 receiving yards in all four contests.

There is upside here but plenty of risk as well which is why he’s priced down here. But the Broncos are listing him as a starting wide receiver although he likely comes off the field in two-receiver sets. But he reportedly had a great camp, and he was a day two pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The pedigree is there and for a Showdown slate and I’m willing to use him as a value flex option for my lineups.

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool, 9/14

Player Pool

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