The final week of the 2025-26 NFL season is here, and Week 18 offers a slate of games with massive playoff implications and personal milestones on the line. With defenses worn down and offenses playing for seeding or pride, bettors can find significant value in player props this Sunday. We have analyzed the latest data and motivation factors to identify six standout picks that are poised to hit. From rookie sensations capping off strong debuts to superstars chasing historic records, here are the best player prop picks for Sunday, January 4.

Elevate your football strategy with our Expert Picks and algorithmic Data Edge Picks designed to crush the spread. Scan the market for player prop value using our Prop Finder and real-time Odds Finder. Finally, validate every angle of your wager with our deep historical Betting Trends.

 

 

 

Best NFL Week 18 Player Prop Picks: Drake Maye Over 244.5 Passing Yards

Drake Maye has been nothing short of sensational down the stretch for the New England Patriots. Coming off a dazzling Week 17 performance against the Jets where he threw for 256 yards and 5 touchdowns, Maye enters Week 18 with full momentum. The Patriots are still in the hunt for the AFC's No. 1 seed, meaning the starters will play against the Miami Dolphins to secure a crucial bye week. The Dolphins' secondary has been susceptible to chunk plays recently, and with Stefon Diggs chasing a 1,000-yard season, expect Maye to be aggressive early and often. In a game that matters significantly for New England’s Super Bowl path, Maye clearing 245 yards feels like a safe floor.
 

 

 

NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets: Trevor Lawrence Over 252.5 Passing Yards

Trevor Lawrence has been playing some of the best football of his career to close out the 2025 season. In his last outing against Indianapolis, Lawrence carved up the defense for 263 yards, continuing a hot streak that has seen him eclipse the 250-yard mark multiple times in the second half of the season. The Jaguars face the Tennessee Titans this Sunday, a team that Lawrence has historically performed well against. With the Titans' defense struggling to generate consistent pressure, Lawrence should have clean pockets to find his receivers downfield. Look for the Jaguars to finish the season on a high note offensively.
 

 

 

NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets: Tyler Shough Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has quietly put together a solid end to his debut campaign. He has shown real progression in the passing game over his last few starts, including a 308-yard performance against the Jets in Week 16. While Shough has often relied on his legs, his arm has become a legitimate weapon in the red zone. Facing an Atlanta Falcons defense that can be generous to opposing quarterbacks, Shough has a great opportunity to cap off his rookie year with a multi-touchdown game. The Falcons are playing for seeding, likely forcing a high-scoring affair where Shough will need to throw to keep up.
 

 

 

NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets: Stefon Diggs Over 50.5 Receiving Yards

This is a classic "narrative street" pick. Stefon Diggs enters Week 18 sitting at 970 receiving yards for the season. He is just 30 yards shy of securing yet another 1,000-yard campaign, a benchmark that is undoubtedly important to a veteran of his caliber. Diggs has been Drake Maye’s safety valve recently, racking up 101 yards on 6 catches last week. The Patriots are playing to win for the No. 1 seed, so they won't be resting players early. Expect Maye to force-feed Diggs in the first half to get him over that 1,000-yard hump, making this line significantly lower than his recent production.
 

 

 

NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets: Jaxson Dart Over 35.5 Rushing Yards

Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has been a consistent fantasy asset with his legs since taking over the starting job, averaging 41.4 rushing yards in his starts this season. The Giants are facing the Dallas Cowboys in the season finale, and while Dallas possesses a fierce pass rush, that aggression often favors Dart’s rushing prop; when plays break down, Dart’s first instinct is to tuck and run. The projections model expects Dart to have the highest rushing volume among all QBs on the slate. With a line set at just 35.5 yards, Dart only needs a few effective scrambles to cash this ticket.
 

 

 

NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets: Bijan Robinson Over 82.5 Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson is having a historic season for the Atlanta Falcons. Entering Week 18, he has rushed for 1,445 yards and is fresh off a career-best 195-yard explosion against the Rams. Robinson is currently locked in a battle with Christian McCaffrey for the most yards from scrimmage in the NFL this season, giving him plenty of motivation to show out against the Saints. The matchup is pristine: the New Orleans Saints rank 23rd in run defense, allowing over 125 rushing yards per game. Robinson is the engine of the Falcons' offense, and we expect them to feed their superstar back 20+ times to exploit this soft front.
 

 

 

How to bet on NFL Week 18 Player Props At Novig & Claim Your $100 Bonus With Promo Code ALARM

If you are looking to get in on the action for Week 18, Novig offers a unique betting experience with competitive market odds. To claim your bonus, simply download the Novig app and sign up for a new account. During the registration process, enter the promo code ALARM to unlock a $100 bonus. Once your account is funded, navigate to the NFL section, select the player props market, and place your wagers on Maye, Lawrence, Shough, Diggs, Dart, or Robinson to get started.

As for actually using ALARM, you should see that our links & banners have filled it in for you, but even if not, the steps below will have you set up in no time at all:

You’ll then automatically receive your $100 bonus, and again, you can start using their commission-free lines to make picks on anything, not just NFL Week 18 today.
 

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