Looking for the best NFL TNF player prop picks for Week 10? The 2-5-1 Commanders visit the first-place 5-2-1 Giants at MetLife Stadium on Thursday night, with New York a 2.5-point favorite and the total near 40.5. Below, we break down our top Commanders vs. Giants player props, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks
This NFC East rematch follows a Week 5 tie, with the Giants looking to extend their division lead and the Commanders in danger of losing the head-to-head tiebreaker. Both quarterbacks are healthy after injury scares, and Washington's defense ranks last in the league in DVOA against tight ends. Here are the props we like best for Thursday night.
Commanders vs. Giants Player Props: J.J. McCarthy Over 208.5 Passing Yards
McCarthy has won both of his starts since the Giants traded for him, throwing for 252 yards in an overtime win over Houston and 127 yards in last week's 19-11 win in Philadelphia, though he has not thrown a touchdown in either game and was sacked five times against the Eagles. He also threw for 243 yards in one quarter of relief against New Orleans, so the ceiling is there. McCarthy practiced in full this week after the hip injury he suffered against the Eagles, and he gets a Commanders defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA, 18th against WR1, and dead last against tight ends, where Isaiah Likely has 46 catches for 448 yards and six touchdowns. With Malik Nabers healthy and a total of 40.5, the Giants may lean on Cam Skattebo and the ground game, so volume is the question, but a quarterback with this matchup and weapons clearing 208.5 passing yards looks reasonable.
Commanders vs. Giants Player Prop Bets: Jayden Daniels Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts
Daniels has run just 10 times over the last three games, including a career-low two carries against Philadelphia and four for 16 yards against the Rams, so the trend is working against this line. But the elbow that sidelined him earlier is no longer an issue, as he was a full participant all week, and the matchup is a familiar one, as he ran nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns against this same Giants defense in Week 5. New York ranks 16th in rush defense DVOA, and with the Commanders 2.5-point underdogs in a must-win game, Washington may need to lean on its quarterback's legs after taking four sacks in last week's loss. He has 31 carries in six games, 5.2 per game, and has reached six in only two of them, so this is a bet on a return to form rather than a trend, but 5.5 attempts is a low bar for a quarterback of Daniels' athleticism.
Thursday Night Football Player Props: Malik Nabers Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Nabers was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month for October after catching 36 passes for 509 yards and two touchdowns, with 100-plus receiving yards in all four games, and he has caught 11 of 14 targets for 206 yards since McCarthy took over, including 163 yards against Houston. Last week he had five catches for 43 yards against Philadelphia, but he practiced in full this week with his knee issue and faces a Commanders defense that ranks 18th in DVOA against WR1 and 22nd against WR2. His season line is 53 catches and 648 yards. McCarthy is not a high-volume passer, so the number depends on Nabers' target share, but a receiver averaging 127 yards in October, clearing 67.5 looks like a good bet.
Commanders vs. Giants Player Prop Bets: Chig Okonkwo Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
Okonkwo has been a steady piece of Washington's passing game, catching six of seven targets for 57 yards against the Rams last week, which tied for the team high, after 32 yards against Philadelphia and 69 and 60 yards in two games before that. With Terry McLaurin out for the season and Treylon Burks missing time, Okonkwo has also been among the league's leaders in yards per target and explosive catch rate since Daniels returned. He went from limited to full practice with his hip injury, and the Giants rank 12th in DVOA against tight ends. He has caught four or fewer passes in several games, so volume varies, but at 34.5 yards the bar is lower than his typical output, and a tight end tied for the team lead in targets clearing it looks like a fair bet.
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