Looking for the best NFL player prop picks today for Week 9's Sunday slate? From a Lions back facing the league's 26th-ranked run defense by DVOA to a Cardinals quarterback stepping into Seattle, there is plenty of value to dig into, starting with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in Madrid. Below, we break down our top NFL Sunday Week 9 player prop picks, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Sunday Week 9 Player Prop Picks
Week 9 is loaded with ground-game matchups, with Miami, New York, and Indianapolis all ranking 24th or worse in rush defense DVOA. We also have a tight end facing the Bengals, who rank 30th in DVOA against the position, and a quarterback change in Arizona that sets up a tough test against the league's best defense in yards allowed. Here are the props we like best from that slate.
Lions vs. Dolphins Player Props: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 97.5 Rushing Yards
Gibbs leads the NFL at 110.4 rushing yards per game, with 773 yards and eight touchdowns on 157 carries through seven games, and he has topped 100 yards three times, with 156, 151, and a season-best 153 on 23 carries in last week's 19-15 win over Minnesota. He played 76% of the snaps against the Vikings and forced 12 missed tackles, gaining a career-high 99 yards after missed tackles. Miami ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA, 26th in rush defense DVOA, and 27th against running backs, with a run-stop win rate that ranks 30th, and the Dolphins allowed 131 rushing yards to New England last week. The Lions are 7-point favorites with a total of 50.5, a script that favors a back who runs the clock when Detroit leads, and Gibbs practiced in full Thursday with his shoulder. Four of his seven games have been below 100, so the number sits slightly under his average rather than far below it, but this is about as good a matchup as he could ask for.
Jets vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets: Kenneth Walker Over 90.5 Rushing Yards
Walker is averaging 110 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry, with 770 yards and six touchdowns through seven games, and he has topped this number four times (173, 117, 177, and 128). He has been held in check the last two weeks, with 36 yards against Seattle and 69 on 21 carries in a 28-24 loss to Denver, two of the league's better defenses, but there are no workload concerns, as he remains Kansas City's lead back and handled about 73% of the team's carries early in the season. The Jets rank 24th in rush defense DVOA and 24th against running backs, and the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites with a total of 47.5, a script that should get Walker back to 20 carries. The Jets did hold Raiders rookie Mike Washington Jr. to 3.3 yards per carry on 25 attempts, so efficiency is a question, but a bounce-back looks likely.
Cowboys vs. Colts Player Props: Javonte Williams Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Williams has 134 carries for 528 yards and eight rushing touchdowns through eight games as Dallas' clear lead back, and he has carried 25 and 24 times in the last two games, including a career-high 155 yards against Philadelphia before 56 yards on 24 carries against Arizona. His 3.9 yards per carry leaves little margin, and he has topped this number just twice (98 and 155), so this is a pure matchup and volume play. Indianapolis ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA and 25th against running backs, ranks second-worst in EPA per rush, traded DeForest Buckner back to San Francisco, and just lost 42-7 to Jacksonville. Dallas is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5, a script that should keep Williams busy, and the Cowboys need the run game to protect Dak Prescott, who was sacked four times last week. His offensive line has been inconsistent, but clearing 72.5 yards looks reachable against this front.
Bengals vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets: Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions
Pitts has 22 catches on 32 targets for 197 yards and four touchdowns through eight games and had caught five passes in three straight games before last week's rain game in Tampa Bay, when he had two on five targets in a 16-0 loss in which Michael Penix threw four interceptions. Since Week 5, he has a 17.5% target share and a 21.2% first-read share and runs a route on 66.9% of dropbacks. The Bengals are a matchup to target, ranking 30th in DVOA against tight ends and allowing seven catches and 88.7 receiving yards per game to the position, both second-most in the NFL. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite with a total of 52.5 in Madrid, which should keep Atlanta throwing. He has reached five catches in just three of eight games, but with the role and the matchup both pointing toward a bounce-back, this is a plus-money play at 4.5 receptions.
Rams vs. Commanders Player Props: Blake Corum Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
Corum's workload has been steadily increasing, from five carries against Philadelphia to nine, 17, and 11 in his last three games, and he has 75 carries for 389 yards and three rushing touchdowns on the year, averaging a career-best 5.2 yards per carry. He ran 17 times for 93 yards and a touchdown against Las Vegas and 11 for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, including 55 yards on five carries on the opening possession of the second half, and he has scored in four straight games. Since Week 5, he has nine red-zone carries to Kyren Williams' eight. Matthew Stafford is managing right elbow soreness, though he practiced in full; Davante Adams is on injured reserve with a ruptured hamstring, and Puka Nacua is questionable, so the Rams' focus should stay on the ground game. Washington ranks eighth in rush defense DVOA and has allowed under 100 rushing yards per game, but its front is depleted, with Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw out for the season. Corum averages 48.6 yards per game and has topped this number twice, so the line sits above his average, but his rising role and efficiency make over 50.5 playable.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets: Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 Interceptions
Minshew will make his first start of the season after replacing a benched Jacoby Brissett against Dallas, going 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in an overtime win. The last time he was a consistent starter, with the 2024 Raiders, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, 10 to nine in 10 appearances, and he has not started since Week 16 last season. Seattle is a major step up in difficulty, as it has allowed the fewest total yards per game in the league (250.0, a team record through eight games), ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA, and has eight interceptions on the year, the fourth-most in the NFL. Arizona's own pass defense ranks 31st in DVOA, Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 39.5, and Drew Lock will start for the injured Sam Darnold, so the Seahawks may keep it conservative. Minshew will face a front that ranks fourth in pressure rate, and if Arizona trails, as expected, the chance of at least one interception looks decent, even though he threw none against Dallas.
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