Looking for the best NFL player prop picks today for Week 7's Sunday slate? From the highest-scoring game on the board in Detroit to a Panthers run defense at the bottom of the league, there is plenty of value to dig into. Below, we break down our top NFL Sunday Week 7 player prop picks, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Sunday Week 7 Player Prop Picks
Week 7's Sunday slate pairs some of the league's softest defenses with a handful of players in strong spots. Jordan Love and the Packers visit a Lions defense that has given up nearly 300 passing yards per game, Geno Smith hosts a winless Miami secondary, and Tampa Bay's Bucky Irving draws the league's worst run defense in yards per carry. Here are the props we like best from that slate.
Packers vs. Lions Player Props: Jordan Love Over 282.5 Passing Yards
Love has thrown for 1,684 yards through six games, an average of 280.7 per game that ranks third in the league, and he has topped 300 yards in three of them, including 387 in Week 1 and 367 against Chicago in Week 5. He threw for 276 last week against Dallas despite being pressured on 45.5% of his dropbacks, and the Packers lead the league in dropped passes with 20, which means plenty of yardage has been left on the field. Detroit's defense is a prime target, having allowed 1,487 passing yards in five games (297.4 per game), the fifth-most in the league. Love has never thrown for 300 yards against the Lions in his career and has a sore back, though he says there is no chance he misses the game, so there is some risk. With a total near 53, the highest on the board, a shootout looks likely, and clearing 282.5 passing yards looks very reasonable.
Dolphins vs. Jets Player Prop Bets: Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Smith has been efficient and careful, completing 68.9% of his passes for 1,336 yards, seven touchdown passes, and one interception through six games, but he has averaged only 1.2 touchdown passes per game, so this is a bet on the matchup. Miami's defense is the one to target, as the 0-5 Dolphins have allowed 11 touchdown passes in five games, a 76.6% completion rate, and the second-highest opponent passer rating in the league at 115.0 while generating just four sacks, the fewest in the NFL. New York is roughly a 4.5-point favorite, and Omar Cooper Jr. has emerged as a deep threat after a 103-yard game against New England. The risks are real, as the total is a low 38.5, the Jets rank 32nd in red-zone efficiency, and Breece Hall missed Wednesday's practice, but with Smith facing a defense this generous, clearing 1.5 touchdown passes looks like a fair bet.
Giants vs. Texans Player Props: Nico Collins Anytime TD
Collins has been Houston's most dangerous scoring threat, with three touchdowns in four games, including two in a 118-yard return from a hamstring injury against Dallas, and he has topped 70 receiving yards in three of four games on a 22-323-3 line. He has at least 75 yards and a touchdown in three of his past four home games and has produced at least 55 yards of offense in 13 straight games. Houston is roughly a 10-point favorite and has averaged 30 points per game during a two-game win streak, and the Texans have scored touchdowns on 10 of 18 red-zone trips through five games, with Collins the natural target on fades and back-shoulder throws. The matchup is not easy, as the Giants rank fifth against the pass at 190.2 yards allowed per game, and Marvin Harrison and Tank Dell are both joining the target mix, so the scoring chances may be spread out. Even so, a receiver with three touchdowns in four games and a large role on a heavily favored offense looks like a fair anytime touchdown play.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets: Bucky Irving Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
Irving has carried 96 times for 452 yards and two touchdowns through six games (4.7 per carry) and has handled at least 16 carries in each of the last three weeks, including a career-high 165 yards in Dallas and 46 yards on 19 carries against Pittsburgh. He has gone over this number against Cleveland (89 yards) and Dallas, but he was bottled up by the Steelers' front. This week's matchup is the best he could ask for, as Carolina ranks last in the NFL at 5.12 yards allowed per carry and 27th in rushing yards allowed at 132.2 per game, and Irving has averaged 136.0 yards from scrimmage in four career games against the Panthers, with two 100-yard rushing games. The Bucs are about three-point road underdogs, and their offense, led by rookie Jalon Daniels, has struggled with sacks, which keeps Irving as the focal point. He missed Wednesday's practice with an illness before returning on a limited basis Thursday, so his final status is worth watching, but a back with this much volume and a weak run defense in front of him clearing 65.5 yards looks like a good bet.
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