Looking for the best NFL player prop picks today as the 2026 season's first full Sunday slate kicks off? Between a new-look Raiders backfield, a Jaguars offense entering year two of its system, a receiver room in transition down in Tampa, and a Falcons team turning to its third-string quarterback, there's no shortage of angles to dig into. Below, we break down our top NFL Sunday Week 1 player prop picks, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.

 

Best NFL Sunday Week 1 Player Prop Picks

Week 1's Sunday slate is packed with teams working through new coaching staffs, retooled receiver rooms, and a handful of notable absences. Trevor Lawrence enters year two of Liam Coen's offense with a deeper receiving group than a year ago, the Raiders open a new era under Klint Kubiak against a Dolphins team that projects as one of the league's weaker outfits, the Buccaneers head to Cincinnati with a receiver room that looks different without Mike Evans in the mix, and the Falcons travel to Pittsburgh already down to their third quarterback option. Here are the props we like best from that slate.

Browns vs. Jaguars Player Props: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Lawrence's 2025 breakout wasn't subtle. In his first year running Liam Coen's offense, he set a franchise record with 38 total touchdowns (29 passing, nine rushing) and was even better once things clicked, throwing 19 touchdowns against just seven interceptions during an eight-game, season-ending winning streak that carried Jacksonville to the AFC South title. That same core group returns, with Parker Washington, Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange all back, while Travis Etienne signed with the New Orleans Saints in free agency and left the backfield to an unproven duo in Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez With a run game that's very much a question mark, expect Coen to keep pushing the offense through Lawrence's arm, and clearing multiple passing scores against a Browns defense retooling its front feels very much in play.

Raiders vs. Dolphins Player Props: Ashton Jeanty Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

Jeanty's rookie season didn't come with gaudy numbers, just 975 yards behind an offensive line that ran through six different starting combinations, but he still led all rookies in rushing yards and forced the third-most broken tackles in the league. He went through a real ankle scare in camp this summer, but he's officially off the injury report and ready to roll in the opener. The matchup could hardly line up better, with Miami carrying one of the league's worst power ratings entering the year and Brock Bowers now out after a meniscus procedure, pulling even more offensive focus toward the run. New head coach Klint Kubiak has already said he wants Jeanty on the field as much as possible, and there's no reason to expect a lighter workload against a Dolphins defense projected to be among the league's worst units. A featured back in a run-first scheme against a defense this shaky is exactly the setup that clears a number like this.

 

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets: Chris Godwin Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

When he's healthy, Godwin is still one of the better route runners at the position, and all the offseason buzz points to him being plenty healthy for Week 1. Mike Evans is gone to San Francisco, and Emeka Egbuka has been managing a toe injury that limited him for a chunk of camp, which clears a path for Godwin to handle a real workload right out of the gate. Cincinnati's defense allowed the most passing yards in the NFL a season ago, and ESPN's Seth Walder has already pegged Godwin for double-digit targets in this game. Godwin becoming the clear top receiver on his own team against the league's worst pass defense from a year ago is a great spot to expect him clearing this number.

Falcons vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets: Cooper Rush Under 30.5 Pass Attempts

Atlanta is down to its third-string quarterback for the opener, with both Michael Penix (still working back from a torn ACL) and Tua Tagovailoa (oblique injury) sidelined and Cooper Rush stepping into the starting role on the road. That's about as difficult a spot as a team can be in during Week 1, and it's happening against a Steelers defense that added corner Jamel Dean and safety Jaquan Brisker to a front already anchored by T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward, one of the more complete units in the league entering the year. Expect the Falcons to lean on Bijan Robinson and the ground game to shorten the field as much as possible rather than asking Rush to throw the ball 35-plus times. A limited pass volume approach behind a patchwork quarterback room feels like the obvious game plan here.

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