NFL SNF Best Player Prop Picks: Bears vs 49ers, Sunday, 12/28
The Chicago Bears (11-4) head west to Levi’s Stadium tonight for an NFC matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (11-4). This "Sunday Night Football" game has significant playoff implications, with both teams vying for seeding in the NFC. The Bears, led by head coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams, are looking to prove their offense can travel, while the 49ers are aiming to secure home-field advantage with a win.
Both teams enter with identical records. Chicago relies on Williams' strong season, while San Francisco has navigated a quarterback shuffle, relying on their defense and Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers will be without star tight end George Kittle, while the Bears will miss second-year receiver Rome Odunze, altering the game plan for both sides.
Bears vs 49ers Player Prop Bets: Christian McCaffrey Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
The 49ers' ground game ranks 25th with 104.3 yards per game, but tonight offers a favorable matchup against a Chicago defense that has struggled against the run. The Bears enter this matchup with the 27th-ranked run defense, allowing 131.0 rushing yards per game.
McCaffrey remains a central part of the 49ers' offense and enters this contest with strong recent production. He has surpassed this rushing total in four of his last five games, including 117 yards last week against the Colts. In a game where San Francisco is favored at home, game script may lean in his favor. The Bears' struggles to plug gaps, combined with the 49ers' potential to control the clock, sets up a scenario where McCaffrey sees 18-22 touches. Against a unit allowing this much production on the ground, 70 yards is a reasonable target.
Bears vs 49ers Player Prop Bets: Luther Burden Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Rookie Luther Burden has seen his role expand recently, and the metrics suggest a productive game, especially with fellow starter Rome Odunze ruled out. The 49ers' defense ranks 29th in opponent completion percentage (68.41%) and 24th in passing yards allowed (229.3 per game).
With Odunze sidelined, Burden solidifies his role as the primary intermediate option behind DJ Moore. San Francisco’s front seven ranks 8th against the run, but their secondary has allowed efficiency through the air. This creates a defense where teams are often encouraged to pass. Burden, who operates in the intermediate areas where completion percentages are higher, should see increased volume. He likely needs a standard workload to reach this total against a secondary allowing nearly 70% of passes to be caught.
Bears vs 49ers Player Prop Bets: Caleb Williams Over 223.5 Passing Yards
Caleb Williams has led the Bears' 13th-ranked passing offense (219.4 yards per game), and this matchup favors an aerial attack. The 49ers allow nearly 230 passing yards per game (24th in the NFL), more than they allow on the ground (102.9 ypg, 8th).
San Francisco defends the run well but allows yardage through the air. With Chicago potentially needing to keep pace on the scoreboard and finding the ground game difficult, the volume will fall on Williams. He has cleared this 223.5 line in similar matchups this season, and the 49ers' defensive splits suggest he may drop back 35+ times.
Bears vs 49ers Player Prop Bets: Jauan Jennings Over 4.5 Receptions
"Third-and-Jauan" continues to be a reliable safety valve, and his role becomes even more critical with George Kittle ruled out. The Bears' defense ranks 23rd in opponent completion percentage, allowing quarterbacks to complete 66.38% of their passes.
Kittle's absence vacates a significant target share in the middle of the field. This coverage suggests Chicago is willing to concede underneath receptions, which is where Jennings operates. In important games, the 49ers often rely on Jennings to move the chains. Without Kittle available, and against a defense allowing two out of every three passes to be caught, Jennings has a good chance to secure five receptions as the primary option in the short-to-intermediate zones.
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