Looking for the best NFL MNF player prop picks to close out Week 9? The Bills visit the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night as 3-point favorites, with the total near 44 and Carson Wentz starting for Minnesota in place of the injured Kyler Murray. Below, we break down our top Bills vs. Vikings player props, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Monday Night Football Player Prop Picks
This is a matchup of the league's top-scoring offense and the NFL's top-scoring defense, with the Vikings ranking first in pass defense DVOA and the Bills ranking 31st in DVOA against WR1. A quarterback change in Minnesota adds extra intrigue. Here are the props we like best for Monday night.
Bills vs. Vikings Player Props: Josh Allen Under 231.5 Passing Yards
Allen is averaging 256.1 passing yards per game, but the Vikings are the toughest passing matchup in the league, with the top-ranked pass defense in DVOA, allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt and four passing touchdowns all season. Minnesota also leads the NFL in scoring defense. Buffalo has leaned on James Cook, who has carried 21 or more times in three straight games, and Allen has been just as important with his legs, with nine rushing touchdowns on the year, and he threw for only 210 yards in the Week 5 overtime win at the Rams. Left tackle Dion Dawkins (rib) did not practice all week, and Alec Anderson (ankle) is also dealing with an injury, which leaves Allen vulnerable to Brian Flores' pressure-heavy defense. With Buffalo a 3-point favorite and a total near 44, the Bills should hand the ball to Cook when they lead. Clearing 231.5 is below Allen's average, so this is a bet on game script, but the matchup supports a lower passing number than usual.
Bills vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets: Carson Wentz Over 212.5 Passing Yards
Wentz steps in for Kyler Murray, who is out with a hamstring strain, and gets his first start of the season after going 23 of 39 for 276 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in relief, a 106.4 rating. Murray averaged just 170.3 passing yards per game, 30th among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, so Minnesota's offense should open up, with Kevin O'Connell favoring an under-center, play-action, vertical approach that fits Wentz better and gets the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Bills rank 18th in pass defense DVOA and 31st against WR1, and they have allowed 10 of their 15 passing touchdowns after halftime. The Vikings' defense is dominant and could keep the game low-scoring, but with Buffalo a 3-point favorite and owning the league's top-scoring offense, Wentz should have to throw. Clearing 212.5 passing yards is a reasonable bar.
Monday Night Football Player Props: Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
Jefferson has been frustrated this season, catching 28 passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns through seven games, an average of 47.9 per game, with Kyler Murray at quarterback. Wentz changes that, as ESPN notes Jefferson averages 87.6 receiving yards with Wentz under center, and Wentz's 7.1 yards per attempt and three touchdowns in relief suggest a more vertical offense. Buffalo ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1 and has allowed 10 of its 15 passing touchdowns after halftime. Minnesota's offense has trouble sustaining drives, with nearly 60% of its sets of downs reaching third down, but the Vikings figure to be chasing in this game, and Jefferson is the natural target. Clearing 78.5 yards is above his season average, but the quarterback change and the matchup both point in his favor.
Bills vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets: James Cook Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Cook has 138 carries through seven games, 19.7 per game, and he has carried 19 or more times in five of them, including 25 against the Rams, 22 against the Raiders, and 21 against the Ravens, with a rushing touchdown in six straight games. Buffalo is a 3-point favorite, and when the Bills lead, Cook gets the ball. Minnesota is elite against the pass, ranking first in DVOA, which should encourage the Bills to run, and its rush defense ranks 17th in DVOA, allowing 3.8 yards per carry before halftime and 5.3 after. Cook has handled 18 or fewer carries only in the two lowest-volume games, 13 and 12, and he has accounted for about two-thirds of the team's rushing attempts. Allen's legs take some carries, but over 18.5 attempts looks like a good bet.
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