Our NFL Christmas Day best player prop picks for Thursday, 12/25 focus on a massive holiday triple-header packed with playoff implications and divisional rivalries. The slate features the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Washington Commanders, a critical NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, and a nightcap between the surging Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. Bettors looking for an edge on the holiday schedule should target specific inefficiencies in the NFL odds board, particularly regarding passing volume and rushing totals. We have analyzed the matchups and game scripts to bring you the top NFL betting picks to lock in before kickoff.

 

Best NFL Christmas Day Player Prop Picks: Jared Goff (DET) Under 246.5 Passing Yards

The Lions head into U.S. Bank Stadium with their playoff lives on the line, but the game script has shifted heavily in their favor with news that the Vikings are starting quarterback Max Brosmer. With an inexperienced signal-caller under center for Minnesota, the Lions likely won't need to engage in a shootout.

This specifically hurts Jared Goff’s volume. The Vikings still possess a formidable pass defense that can punish mistakes, so Detroit will likely adopt a risk-averse strategy. Knowing that Brosmer will struggle to put up points against the Lions' defense, Detroit can afford to lean on their ground game and manage the clock, rather than forcing Goff to throw into the teeth of Minnesota's secondary.

 

Christmas Day Player Props: Dak Prescott (DAL) Under 273.5 Passing Yards

The motivation factor was already a red flag for Dallas, but the matchup dynamic has changed further with the Commanders forced to start journeyman Josh Johnson at quarterback. Facing a backup QB significantly increases the probability that the Cowboys will play with a comfortable lead for most of the contest.

If Dallas jumps out early against a limited Washington offense, the need for Dak Prescott to keep airing it out evaporates. The Cowboys will likely look to preserve their starters and churn the clock in the second half. 273.5 yards is a number usually required for competitive, back-and-forth games; against Josh Johnson, Dallas can cruise to a win with Dak throwing for fewer than 270 yards.

 

Christmas Day Player Prop Bets: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Over 76.5 Rushing Yards

The "Max Brosmer factor" is the primary reason we are hammering the Over on Jahmyr Gibbs, but the injury report makes this play even stronger. Backfield mate David Montgomery is currently listed as questionable to play. If Montgomery is inactive or limited in any capacity, it significantly furthers Gibbs' already massive projected workload.

With the Vikings starting a quarterback who will likely struggle to sustain drives, the Lions are projected to be playing from ahead for the majority of the game. A positive game script combined with a potentially condensed backfield rotation makes Gibbs the focal point of the entire offense. Expect Detroit to lean on him heavily to grind out this win.

 

Christmas Day Player Props: Courtland Sutton (DEN) Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

The Denver Broncos (12-3) have been the story of the 2025 season, and they head into Arrowhead looking to bury a Chiefs team (6-9) that has struggled mightily without Patrick Mahomes. Courtland Sutton has been the engine of this Denver passing attack, serving as the reliable safety valve and deep threat for the Broncos' offense.

The Chiefs' secondary has been vulnerable during their losing skid, and Sutton’s size advantage on the outside should be a mismatch all night. With Denver looking to make a statement and finally exorcise their demons at Arrowhead, expect them to remain aggressive. Sutton only needs 3-4 decent catches to clear this number, and he should see 8+ targets in this spot.

 


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