For PrizePicks tonight, we are fading the Miami aerial attack while heavily backing the Steelers' check-down volume in the passing game. The weather report suggests that passing the ball downfield will be difficult, which directly correlates to our selected props. We are looking for reliable floors rather than ceilings, focusing on players who will get opportunities regardless of the game score. This approach minimizes risk in what is expected to be a volatile and low-scoring Monday Night Football matchup.

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Tua Tagovailoa PrizePicks NFL Pick: Less than 18.5 Completions

This is a classic "fade the environment" play, as Pittsburgh is a notably difficult place to play quarterback in December. Tua has historically struggled to grip and rip the ball in the cold, often leading to inaccurate throws and stalled drives. We anticipate Mike McDaniel designing a conservative game plan that minimizes high-risk throws to protect his quarterback. Expect a lot of handoffs and a running clock that drastically limits total pass attempts throughout the evening.
 

 

 

Kenneth Gainwell PrizePicks NFL Pick: More than 3.5 Receptions

The correlation here is strong because if the game is low-scoring and gritty, running backs naturally rack up more touches in the passing game. Gainwell isn't just a runner; he is essentially playing a slot receiver role out of the backfield for this Steelers offense. With totals of 6, 6, and 7 receptions in three of his last four games, the volume is undeniably there to clear 3.5 comfortably. He is the safety valve that the quarterback trusts most when the play breaks down or the blitz arrives.
 

 

 

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