Need the best PrizePicks NFL picks today to close out Week 9? The Bills visit the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night as 3-point favorites, with the total near 44 and Carson Wentz starting for Minnesota in place of the injured Kyler Murray. Below, we cover our favorite PrizePicks NFL picks for this matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Bills vs. Vikings: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
The quarterback change in Minnesota puts Justin Jefferson back in a better spot, and Buffalo's ground game should lean on James Cook against the NFL's top pass defense by DVOA. Let's break down the PrizePicks plays we like most for this matchup.
Best PrizePicks NFL Picks for MNF, Week 9
James Cook NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Cook has been the engine of Buffalo's offense, with 138 carries in seven games, 19.7 per game, and 19 or more carries in five of them, including 25 against the Rams and 22 against the Raiders. He has scored a rushing touchdown in six straight games and accounts for about two-thirds of the Bills' carries. Minnesota's pass defense ranks first in DVOA, which should steer Buffalo toward the ground, and the Vikings allow 5.3 yards per carry to running backs after halftime. Over 18.5 rushing attempts looks like a good bet.
Justin Jefferson NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 78.5 Receiving Yards
With Kyler Murray sidelined by a hamstring strain, Wentz will start for Minnesota, and Jefferson, who averaged just 47.9 receiving yards per game with Murray, averages 87.6 with Wentz, according to ESPN. The Bills rank 31st in DVOA against WR1, and Wentz's 7.1 yards per attempt and three touchdowns in relief suggest a more aggressive downfield approach. Minnesota's defense should keep the game close, but Buffalo has the league's top-scoring offense, so the Vikings will need to throw. Over 78.5 receiving yards looks like a good bet.
PrizePicks NFL Player Projections for Bills vs. Vikings
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Cook and Jefferson as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every PrizePicks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These PrizePicks NFL Picks By Signing Up Using ALARM & Get Over $150 in Bonuses
Ready to build an entry around these picks? Sign up for PrizePicks using ALARM and unlock over $150 in bonuses to get started. Just create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and the bonus offers apply automatically- no extra steps needed. Check out all of Fantasy Alarm's active offers for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Monday night matchup that's already stacked with value.