The Thursday Night Football schedule brings us a high-stakes NFC South rivalry game between the Buccaneers and the Falcons. With the NFC South crown still very much in play, this is a must-win for Tampa Bay, leading to predictable game scripts and betting value. For PrizePicks, we focus on identifying the highest-probability outcomes to build a successful Pick'em entry. Tonight's clash provides two excellent correlated picks centered on Kirk Cousins' risk profile and Baker Mayfield's volume increase, both favoring the More projection.

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Kirk Cousins PrizePicks NFL Pick: More than 0.5 Interceptions

This projection is a direct fade of Kirk Cousins’ recent performance against a high-variance, takeaway-driven defense. Cousins has thrown 3 interceptions in his 4 starts this season, a concerning rate for a quarterback trying to find his rhythm in a new offense. Crucially, he faces a desperate Buccaneers defense that currently ranks 2nd in the NFL with a +9 turnover differential, reflecting their consistent ability to take the ball away. With the Buccaneers expected to hold a lead, Cousins will be forced into a high volume of passes, often under pressure, which is the perfect recipe for a mistake against Tampa Bay's ball-hawking secondary.
 

 

 

Baker Mayfield PrizePicks NFL Pick: More than 217.5 Passing Yards

This line offers great value because it does not fully account for the immediate upgrade in talent the Buccaneers' passing offense is about to receive. Tampa Bay’s receiving corps is set to be at full strength for the first time this season, highlighted by the return of deep threat Mike Evans, which will drastically stretch the field. Having Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan all available prevents the Falcons from condensing their coverage schemes and allows Mayfield to easily eclipse this depressed 217.5-yard total. Tampa Bay will lean on the passing game in this must-win divisional matchup to secure the necessary yardage.
 

 

 

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