To the casual NFL fan, the Los Angeles Rams being favored by only three points over the Las Vegas Raiders might seem suspicious. We know the Raiders are at home here, but folks generally view the Rams as the better team, right? Shouldn’t they be favored by a touchdown or more against the lowly Raiders? But once you pull back the curtain a bit, it does make a lot of sense.
First off, the Raiders are no longer a “joke” franchise. They revamped the entire coaching staff; they have some of the hot young weapons in this league like Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers; they paid up for Tyler Linderbaum on the line; they have Maxx Crosby rushing the passer; and they brought in two QBs to compete. Yes, they have lost three straight, but anyone could have three straight losses going up against the Chiefs, the Patriots, and the Bills.
On the flip side, the Rams are simply not healthy right now. They traded for defensive player of the year Myles Garrett, but he got hurt pretty quickly. Nate Landman has been great for them, but he’s already been ruled out. Star corner Trent McDuffie is questionable after missing last week. And Davante Adams just landed on IR with a ruptured hamstring. This is not a full-strength Rams team.
🏅 Rams vs. Raiders Expert Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 239.5 Pass Yards (-113 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
We aren’t going near the game line on this one due to everything we mentioned. So we are leaning into a prop bet. And, despite all the injuries, this is one that we still like here based on the narrative of the game.
The Rams have been without some of these players for weeks, and it still hasn’t been a major problem. They have still been one of the best defenses in the league, allowing only 167 pass yards per game, which is the second fewest of any team. They have been arguably the best team in the league against the tight end, which is a problem for a team that operates through their two tight ends, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. The DVOA stat over at FTN Fantasy, which attempts to include strength of opponent in the calculation, suggests the Rams are the number one team against the tight end this year. I think both teams would be better served running the football this week, which could slow the pace of the game.
And, on top of the typical two “outs” that you have to hit on an under bet, which would be Kirk Cousins having a bad game or him getting hurt, there is a third one in play this week. Last week, Cousins was actually pulled to get rookie Fernando Mendoza some time. If the Raiders are cruising into their fourth straight loss, you might not even get garbage time yards from Cousins if they opt to give him the hook again. No quarterback has thrown for more than 218 yards against the Rams this year, including Josh Allen and Brock Purdy; a line of 239.5 basically says Cousins will have the best game passing against the Rams of any QB this year. We are betting that doesn’t happen.
👀 How To Watch Rams vs. Raiders NFL Week 7
- Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- When: 4:25 PM ET on 10/25
- Watch on TV: FOX
- Where to stream: NFL+
🔢 Rams vs. Raiders Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
- Point Spread: Los Angeles Rams -3 (-118) vs. Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-102)
- Money Line: Los Angeles Rams -175 vs. Las Vegas Raiders +145
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 48.5 (-110) vs. Under 48.5 (-110)
🏉 Rams vs. Raiders Injury Report & Latest News
We laid out most of the Rams injury concerns right there in the intro. No Myles Garrett, no Davante Adams, no Nate Landman, and possibly no Trent McDuffie. Vegas still thinks they are the better team, and they should be able to attack Vegas on the ground with their combo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. But the line suggests this game could be closer than some might think.
The Las Vegas Raiders are actually coming into this one fairly healthy. Wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. is out with a hamstring, as is special teams contributor Carter Runyon with a foot injury. Ashton Jeanty has been playing through some issues but isn’t on the injury report. It’s actually backup running back Mike Washington Jr. (foot/back) who has been trending in the wrong direction with a limited practice on Wednesday followed by back-to-back DNPs.
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