The NFL heads to Munich for Week 10, and the Patriots and Lions are set to deliver one of the best Patriots vs. Lions picks of the weekend. New England (5-4) is coming off a 45-27 home loss to Green Bay, while Detroit (6-2) beat Miami 19-9. With the Lions' secondary thinner than it was a week ago and Drake Maye healthy enough to practice fully, my favorite play is Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Patriots vs. Lions Predictions for NFL Week 10, Sunday, 11/15
Detroit is a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral field, and the number has already moved a full point since the open, with the total climbing from 48.5 to 51.5. That is the market telling you it expects a lot of points. The Lions average 28.3 per game and the Patriots average 26.5, and Detroit has been throwing well, with Jared Goff at 2,134 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just two interceptions through eight games, while Jahmyr Gibbs has 847 rushing yards on 177 carries.
The Patriots are coming off a rough afternoon. Maye threw three interceptions against the Packers and has 11 on the year, so the turnover risk is real. But he is healthy, practicing both Wednesday and Thursday fully with his right shoulder listed, and New England is getting help back. A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) returned to practice after missing two games, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) got back to limited work on Thursday.
My Patriots vs. Lions predictions land on Detroit winning a close one, 27-24, with Maye throwing two touchdown passes. That fits a total of 51.5 and a game that comes down to the last possession.
Patriots vs. Lions Expert Pick: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Out of all the Patriots vs. Lions picks on the board, this is the one I like most.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135). Maye threw 15 touchdown passes in his first eight games, nearly two a game, and he had accounted for at least three touchdowns in each of his five games before the Green Bay loss. That is a strong base for a prop that only needs two scores through the air.
The matchup helps, too. Detroit will be without safety Kerby Joseph (knee), cornerback D.J. Reed (hip), and center Cade Mays (ankle), all ruled out and none of whom made the trip to Germany. That leaves Rock Ya-Sin projected to start opposite Roger McCreary in the secondary and Juice Scruggs expected at center. With a 51.5 total and a spread of just 2.5, this is a game script where both offenses should get chances late, and if Detroit gets out early, New England will have to throw.
The risk is turnovers and the Patriots' own injuries. Maye has been picked off 11 times, including three against Green Bay, and the Lions will try to take advantage. New England also lost running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness), left guard Ben Brown (knee), and cornerback Carlton Davis III (knee) for this game. Still, I'll take the over at the current number, and I'll check Maye's status again on Friday, since a setback would void the play.
How To Watch Patriots vs. Lions NFL Week 10
- Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
- Time: 9:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. local time in Munich)
- Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany (Detroit is the designated home team)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: FOX One, NFL+
- Records: Patriots 5-4, Lions 6-2
Patriots vs. Lions Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
The Lions are 2.5-point favorites, and the number has moved up from -1.5 at the open. The total has climbed from 48.5 to 51.5. Moneylines run about -150 for Detroit and +125 to +133 for New England, depending on the book, so shop the price before you bet.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Detroit Lions | -2.5 | -158 | O 51.5 |
| New England Patriots | +2.5 | +133 | U 51.5 |
- The Patriots vs. Lions odds have shifted since the open, with the spread moving from Lions -1.5 to -2.5 and the total rising three points.
- Maye threw 15 touchdown passes in eight games before the Packers game and has 11 interceptions on the season.
- Goff has thrown just two interceptions through eight games, while Gibbs has 847 rushing yards.
Patriots vs. Lions Injury Report & Latest News
Patriots:
- Drake Maye, QB (right shoulder): full participant Wednesday and Thursday
- A.J. Brown, WR (ankle/knee): limited, returned to practice after missing two games
- Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (knee): limited Thursday after missing Wednesday
- Hunter Henry, TE (foot): limited
- TreVeyon Henderson, RB (illness): out
- Ben Brown, G (knee): out
- Carlton Davis III, CB (knee): out
Lions:
- Jared Goff, QB (chest): full participant Thursday after a limited Wednesday
- Brian Branch, S (hip): full participant Thursday
- DJ Wonnum, EDGE (concussion): back at practice and on track to play
- Cade Mays, C (ankle): out
- D.J. Reed, CB (hip): out
- Kerby Joseph, S (knee): out
Latest news: New England fell 45-27 to Green Bay at home, with Maye throwing three interceptions, while Detroit beat Miami 19-9. The Patriots were AFC champions last season, and Detroit is the designated home team in Munich. Check Friday's final injury report before kickoff, since it could change these Patriots vs. Lions predictions.
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