Welcome to our NFL Week 11 Picks Straight Up! Another week, another mid-season firing of a coach with a rookie quarterback. That wasn't even the wildest thing to happen this past week, though. You're telling me the Miami Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills? Fairly convincingly!? I guess the old saying, “any given Sunday,” really means any given Sunday. All that being said, though, we have another fun slate of NFL games for Week 11, and I am expecting some crazy results.

So without further ado, it is time to bring you our expert NFL Week 11 Picks Straight Up. Below, you will find my picks, some highlighted matchups, and the schedules and spreads for every game this week.

 

 

 

NFL Week 11 Picks Straight Up & Odds For All 15 Games

With Week 11 here, we have some great matchups on paper, and with two teams on bye, we are left with a 15-game slate. In the following section, you will find my predictions, with the teams I anticipate coming away with a victory highlighted in bold. Odds are courtesy of BetMGM:

 

 

 

NFL Week 11 Picks Straight Up: Atlanta Falcons ML (-185 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Last time these two teams faced off, it was a surprising 30-0 victory in the Carolina Panthers' favor. The Panthers also have signature wins over teams like the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. That being said, both they and the Atlanta Falcons have been inconsistent at best throughout the season, looking elite some days and terrible on other days. All that being said, why am I so confident in picking a team that couldn't put up a single point against their division rivals last time they met? For me, it comes down to team identity, specifically around a singular player.

Casual NFL fans likely won't recognize the name Charlie Woerner, but he is an in-line tight end for the Atlanta Falcons. Both with Atlanta and his previous team, the 49ers, he was used more as a blocker than a receiving threat. Now, I wouldn't normally call a blocking tight end a “game changer,” but that is exactly what Woerner has been for the Falcons. In games where he has been in the game for 50% or more of the offensive snaps for the Falcons, Atlanta is 3-0, and Bijan Robinson has run for 140+ yards in two out of three of those games. Plus, he allows Kyle Pitts to be more of a threat outside or in the slot rather than playing in-line. When Woerner is under 50% of snaps, the Falcons are 0-7, and Robinson was held under 50 yards rushing in over half of those games. Last game, the Falcons started incorporating Woerner in their game plan more, but the game script did not allow him to make a greater impact down the stretch in a thrilling game against the Colts. Now, against a team with a bottom three point differential in the first quarter and a much improved, yet still bottom half of the league run defense, I think the Falcons will be able to establish the run early and often against the Panthers this time around and incorporate Woerner in the game plan heavily like they have in all of their winning efforts. 

Even if the Panthers are able to keep pace with their run game (as their offense relies very heavily on its success), I trust Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgier far more than Rico Dowdle. I like the Falcons being able to pull this one off, as if they get an early lead, I don't trust Bryce Young enough to keep the Panthers in this game through the air. 

 

 

 

NFL Week 11 Picks Straight Up: Chicago Bears ML (+140 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This might be crazy, but I am picking another team to win against a division rival that they lost against earlier in the season. In Week One, J.J. McCarthy led a miraculous comeback against the Bears in the fourth quarter to pull out a win, 27-24, but both of these teams are very different now. The Chicago Bears' defense, despite losing some key pieces, leads the NFL with 20 forced turnovers, and the team is number one in turnover differential overall. Additionally, since that week one loss, Caleb Williams has become the king of 4th quarter comebacks, already leading the Bears on four game-winning drives through nine games, a tie for a single-season franchise record.

These stats match up fairly well against the McCarthy-led Vikings. In his four starts, McCarthy's offense is averaging over two turnovers per game. Justin Jefferson, the Vikings' superstar wide receiver, has also had career-low yard averages per game since McCarthy has gone under center. Add on the fact that both Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams have historically played well against the Brian Flores-led Vikings defense, and I think that the Bears offense should be able to capitalize on turnovers forced by this opportunistic Bears defense, and I think the Bears should be able to find their first divisional win of the year here.

 

 

 

How To Bet On NFL Week 11 With The BetMGM Bonus Code & Unlock $150 In Bonus Bets

If you want to make the most of our free picks, try signing up to BetMGM with our exclusive bonus code ALARM!

This welcome bonus is straightforward and inclusive, giving you the chance to place wagers on any matchup you like during NFL Week 11. After registering through this offer, simply deposit at least $10 and place a qualifying bet of $10 or more.

As long as you bet at least $10 with your first bet, you're ready to just kick back and root for it to win. If it does, you’ll get $150 in bonus bets, even if you're betting a big favorite like the Patriots over the Jets! In other words, you’re getting 15/1 odds on anything when you become a new member with our BetMGM bonus code ALARM!

 

 

 

NFL Week 11 Spreads For All 15 Games Provided By BetMGM Sportsbook

We just unveiled our NFL Week 11 picks, and below are the spread odds for each matchup, provided by BetMGM Sportsbook:

  • Jets +13 vs. Patriots -13 (TNF)
  • Commanders +2.5 vs. Dolphins -2.5 (Madrid)
  • Chargers -3 vs. Jaguars +3
  • Buccaneers +5.5 vs. Bills -5.5
  • Bears +3 vs. Vikings -3
  • Packers -7 vs. Giants +7
  • Texans -6.5 vs. Titans +6.5 
  • Panthers +3.5 vs. Falcons -3.5 
  • Bengals +5.5 vs. Steelers -5.5
  • 49ers -2.5 vs. Cardinals +2.5
  • Seahawks +3 vs. Rams -3
  • Chiefs -4 vs. Broncos +4
  • Ravens -7.5 vs. Browns +7.5
  • Lions +2.5 vs. Eagles -2.5 (SNF)
  • Cowboys -3.5 vs. Raiders +2.5 (MNF)

Be sure to come back and check out our NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread or take advantage of our BetMGM bonus code ALARM by signing up now!