As we learned from the Cincinnati Bengals last year, every game matters. They were one early loss to the lowly New England Patriots away from making the playoffs. So you have to take every game seriously. But division games against opponents that also made the playoffs last year? Those games carry a lot more weight.

And that’s what we have this week when the Indianapolis Colts square up with the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams came into the season with aspirations of making the playoffs. But, with the Kansas City Chiefs starting 0-2, now there’s also a much bigger window open for winning the division. Games like this mean everything in that race to the top. 

Even if you just want to see the Colts vs. Rams odds and have Colts vs. Rams picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus! 

Colts vs. Rams Predictions For NFL Week 3, Sunday 4:05 PM ET

These teams have played only once over the past couple of years in 2023 - the Rams won that 29-23 in overtime.  In fact, the Rams have won all four of the most recent matchups. The last time the Colts beat the Rams was in 2009 when Peyton Manning was the quarterback. That said, this Colts team under Daniel Jones has new life, so the historical info doesn’t help us much here. 

The new Colts are undefeated thus far, having beaten the Titans, Broncos, and Dolphins. The Rams are 2-1. They won their first two games against the Texans and Titans, but fell this past weekend in a tough one, 33-26, to the Eagles. 

 

 

 

Indianapolis Colts: The New Daniel Jones

The new Daniel Jones certainly has some elements of the old one - especially the willingness to run. But, whether it’s the change of scenery or the maturation, the new Daniel Jones is throwing the ball much better early on. He’s setting new highs for completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per game, and passer rating so far. The Colts had a good offensive line, a great back in Jonathan Taylor, and tremendous weapons with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce already, so the pieces were in place. Adding Daniel Jones and rookie tight end Tyler Warren has created a well-rounded offense. 

It’s not just the offense this year, though, for the Colts. They are quietly rank 9th in DVOA at FTN Fantasy, which attempts to compare performances vs. the average to give a less biased view.  They may have only faced one team vying for the playoffs in the Broncos, but they have some great pieces in Zaire Franklin, Laiatu Latu, and Nick Cross. However, they could be without cornerback Kenny Moore this week as he’s dealing with an Achilles issue. 

Los Angeles Rams: Highly Consolidated Offense

Sean McVay has always run a pretty highly consolidated show, often using the same 11 games. For instance, last year Kyren Williams averaged 87% of the snaps per game while Jonathan Taylor averaged 80% and no one else was above 80. But this year they’ve taken things to another level, especially in the pass game.  So far, Puka Nacua has 35 targets, Davante Adams has 29, and the next highest is Kyren Williams with 7. It’s basically a four-man show with Stafford, Nacua, Adams, and Williams.

On defense, the Rams have also been a rock-solid unit, currently ranking 12th in DVOA. They’ve especially done well in the pass rush category, where Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young have combined for 22 pressures. The Rams are currently second in the league in sacks with 12. 

 

 

 

Colts vs. Rams Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Colts vs. Rams odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Colts vs. Rams: Puka Nacua Over 99.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (+115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The Davante Adams anytime touchdown bet is one that is going to always be appealing to us - that is what he does, and he’s currently tied for the league lead in endzone targets. But this week’s matchup really plays into the hands of Puka Nacua, even if his lines are set fairly high.

Veteran cornerback Kenny Moore routinely grades out as one of the top corners where he operates in the slot. But he’s very likely out this week with an Achilles issue. Charvarius Ward has only played four total snaps in the slot with 96 out wide, so he’ll be out on Davante Adams, who has run ~75% of his routes out wide. Not to mention, Davante Adams is dealing with a hamstring issue of his own, so we don’t know what level he’ll be playing at. As always, we’ll see Puka Nacua play roughly half his snaps in the slot and the other half out wide, where he should benefit from the Colts' injuries.

The Colts were already starting Xavien Howard outside after losing Justin Walley to an ACL tear in camp. This Kenny Moore injury saw the Colts sign nickel corner Mike Hilton only a couple of days ago to come in and try to cover Puka Nacua in the slot. Hilton may not even be up to speed for a full workload, which could see Mekhi Blackmon take on the assignment. Either way, Nacua should be in line for a big day on receiving yards alone, but he’s also gotten a carry in every game so so we like the slight bump from his receiving line of 93.5 to the rushing + receiving line of 99.5 to benefit from any carries as well. 

 

 


 

Colts vs. Rams Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

IND Colts

LAR Rams

 

 

 

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