Sports fans love using the term “frauds”. According to social media, all 32 teams are frauds in some capacity. And, naturally, neither the Kansas City Chiefs nor the Denver Broncos have been safe from such accusations, despite both having five wins and being in pretty good shape. This week, with them facing each other, it’s a pretty good test to see if one of them actually is a fraud or not.
The Denver Broncos have been accused of winning on the backs of their defense. And even they might be willing to admit that is true. You don’t change play-callers from the offensive coordinator Davis Webb to head coach Sean Payton if things are going great. That said, they have the weapons to bounce back, and the defense has, indeed, been excellent.
The Kansas City Chiefs have dealt with similar complaints. Heavy is the head that wears the crown, so folks will always take whatever opportunity they can to knock Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce is in the twilight of his career, and Mahomes has seen injuries to a lot of his weapons, though he could be getting Rashee Rice back. Like the Broncos, the defense has been stout.
🏅 Chiefs vs. Broncos Expert Pick: Game Total Over 40.5 (-108 on DraftKings)
This game total is set low. Vegas does not want us to bet it. But they know the exact same narratives that we know. And those narratives have been true for a pretty large sample size of games. So we are going to bet them anyway.
The Denver Broncos want to keep the game in front of them. Former defensive player of the year Pat Surtain returns this week to handle duties on the outside where they try to funnel things over the middle of the field. With Xavier Worthy not being the elite field-stretching speedster they hoped and Tyquan Thornton suffering a serious injury, it could be tough for the Chiefs to push the ball downfield. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice will operate in the short area, but it’s chunk plays and quick scores that move the needle for the over/under. If you take every QB on the season who has dropped back to pass 50 or more times, Patrick Mahomes’s average depth of target (aDot) of 6.7 is ranked at QB36 out of 40.
The struggles pushing the ball downfield have been equally well documented for Bo Nix. In fact, Patrick Mahomes is sitting at QB36 in aDot, and Bo Nix, with his aDot of 6.9, is sitting right there at QB35. Courtland Sutton especially has not done his part on the outside, and Jaylen Waddle is dealing with an ongoing chest issue. So we are just taking the under in this game that could be a defensive battle.
👀 How To Watch Chiefs vs. Broncos NFL Week 8
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- When: 4:25 PM ET on 11/1
- Watch on TV: CBS
- Where to stream: Paramount+
🔢 Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
- Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-105) vs. Denver Broncos +1.5 (-115)
- Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs -118 vs. Denver Broncos -102
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 40.5 (-112) vs. Under 40.5 (-108)
🏉 Chiefs vs. Broncos Injury Report & Latest News
The Kansas City Chiefs come to Denver at 5-1 but are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season with a 20-3 loss at Seattle in Week 7. Seattle is obviously a great defense, but so is Denver. Patrick Mahomes is good to go, as the rest in practice is just part of his knee recovery, but the bigger questions are around guys like Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee), who missed last week's game. Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (knee) missed Wednesday’s session before returning limited Thursday, while Mansoor Delane (shoulder) did not practice. Getting Kenneth Walker going has been huge for the Chiefs this year, and they struggled last week without his explosive plays.
The Denver Broncos have won three straight and would slide into first in the AFC West with a win this week. Bo Nix did have a better game last week, but that was against the Arizona Cardinals - this is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos’ defense has been their calling card, racking up 21 sacks on the season, though Zach Allen (hamstring) was limited after missing Wednesday’s practice, and Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) did not practice either day and appears unlikely to play. Tyler Badie and Jonah Elliss have both been placed on injured reserve, further thinning the roster. Jaylen Waddle (chest) and tackle Garett Bolles (hip) were both limited, while Pat Surtain II returned to full practice Thursday, which, as we mentioned, is a huge boost for this defense. He’s their most important player.
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