These are the proving grounds right here. The Los Angeles Chargers have been accused, at times, of blowing games in the playoffs. One of those even came against the Patriots years back with a Marlon McCree fumble. Most recently, they had the melt down against the Jaguars in 2023 and then, after a season with only three interceptions last year, Herbert threw four picks against the Texans in the playoffs.

The Patriots are dealing with their own criticisms. It may not necessarily be their fault but, statistically, they have played one of the softest schedules of the modern era. So much so that an MVP-caliber season for Drake Maye has been called into question. Both teams here are looking to prove that the are the real deal. And we’ll take that into account with our Chargers vs. Patriots predictions. 

Even if you just want to see the Chargers vs. Patriots odds and have Chargers vs. Patriots picks of your own, stick around so that you can also learn how to snag a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign up bonus!

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Patriots Predictions For Sunday 4:30 PM ET, NFL Wild Card Weekend

These teams don’t play all that often, but they did play last year with both Justin Herbert and Drake Maye in the house. And the Chargers walked away winners in that one. In fact, it wasn’t particularly close at 40-7. The Chargers have won the last two matchups against New England after losing seven straight prior to that.

The Patriots are cruising into this one as the number two seed. And the Chargers actually had a hand in that. They decided to rest starters against the Denver Broncos, which locked in the top seed for them and forced the Patriots to play this week. And that also landed the Chargers with the seventh seed locking them into this matchup.

Los Angeles Chargers: Walking Wounded

It’s been well-documented that the Chargers' offensive line has been seriously banged up this year. They lost Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt for the season fairly early. Now, they’ve got multiple guys who are playing through injury, headlined by quarterback Justin Herbert. But now, first-round rookie running back Omarion Hampton has shown up on the injury report. He missed both Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle issue before practicing with a brace on Friday. He’s expected to play through it, like everyone else. 

The Chargers' defense has been middle-of-the-pack based on most metrics out there. In fact, DVOA over at FTN Fantasy, which attempts to adjust for strength of schedule and other factors, has them ranked exactly 16th. One thing that’s noteworthy about the Chargers' defense is that they do play a ton of zone - sites like Fantasy Points Data Suite and Sumer Sports suggest they are playing zone around ~85% of the time. 

New England Patriots Provide Balance

A team like the Los Angeles Rams focuses on only a couple of weapons, like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The Patriots are more spread out. Not only do they have a split backfield, but there is no truly dominant target. Stefon Diggs leads the team on the season with only 102 targets. They rely on Drake Maye to make things happen and disperse the ball fairly evenly, as six different players have 40 or more targets and Rhamondre Stevenson is right there with 37. The return of Will Campbell this week is a big boost for that offensive line as well.

On defense, the Patriots are also getting some key pieces back. Milton Williams returned and Robert Spillane is expected back this week. Jack Gibbens had been playing in his place, so it should help to get their signal-caller and leading tackler back for the playoffs.

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Patriots Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Chargers vs. Patriots odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Patriots: Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (-135 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

We aren’t super keen on betting the yardage totals for Hunter Henry. He’s never been much of a YAC guy. The bets we like are any time touchdown and on receptions. And, since touchdowns can be flukey, our best bet is on receptions.

Henry has been great vs. man-to-man throughout his career which translates well to the red area. That’s where the anytime touchdown which come into play. But he’s also quietly been one of the best tight ends against zone this year. He’s got the fourth-most yards against zone on the year amongst all tight ends and he’s tied for the third-most touchdowns against zone as well.

Folks assume that the Chargers will just take Derwin James and put him in man coverage on the tight end. And they certainly do that every once in awhile. But they only actually line up in man to man around 15% of the time, as we mentioned above. So Henry will have plenty of opportunities to catch a few balls underneath. Four or more receptions really isn’t a tall order for him in this one. 

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Patriots Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

Los Angeles Chargers:

New England Patriots:

 

 

 

How To Bet On Chargers vs. Patriots At BetMGM Sportsbook & Claim Your $1,500 Bonus With Promo Code ALARM

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