2026 NFL Draft Kalshi Predictions: First Position Drafted Odds for All 32 Teams

Kalshi's prediction markets price the probability that each NFL team selects a specific position with their first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The New York Jets have the highest single-position probability in the entire market at 92% for Defensive Lineman/Edge. The Detroit Lions are second at 84% for Offensive Lineman. The Arizona Cardinals are third at 71% for Offensive Lineman.

Offensive Lineman is the most common market leader across all 32 teams. Defensive Lineman/Edge is second. Quarterback is priced as the top option for only one team: the Las Vegas Raiders at 33%.

2026 NFL Draft First Position Drafted: All 32 Teams at a Glance

The table below shows the top two positional markets for each team along with their current Kalshi probabilities.

Source: Kalshi prediction markets. Probabilities reflect live market pricing at time of publication and are subject to change.

Which Team Has the Highest Probability for a Specific Position in the 2026 NFL Draft?

The New York Jets have the single highest positional probability in the Kalshi market. Kalshi prices the Jets to select a Defensive Lineman or Edge rusher first at 92%. No other team approaches that level of market certainty.

The five most confident positional markets entering the 2026 NFL Draft are:

1. New York Jets — DL / Edge: 92%
2. Detroit Lions — Offensive Lineman: 84%
3. Arizona Cardinals — Offensive Lineman: 71%
4. Los Angeles Chargers — DL / Edge: 69%
5. Kansas City Chiefs — DL / Edge: 67%

Which Teams Are Most Likely to Draft an Offensive Lineman First in 2026?

Seven teams are priced above 50% to select an Offensive Lineman with their first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to Kalshi markets.

• Detroit Lions: 84% — The most certain OL market in the dataset. Detroit's offensive line investment is the single most agreed-upon draft outcome across all 32 teams.
• Cleveland Browns: 60% — The market prices OL as a clear priority over wide receiver (35%) for Cleveland.
• Houston Texans: 60% — Houston's investment in protecting C.J. Stroud remains the market's top expectation.
• Arizona Cardinals: 71% — Third-highest overall positional probability in the dataset.

Additional teams with OL in their top two but below 50%: Kansas City (47%), LA Chargers (46%), LA Rams (39%), Carolina (30%), Green Bay (29%), Miami (43%).

Which Teams Are Most Likely to Draft a Defensive Lineman or Edge Rusher First in 2026?

Five teams are priced above 50% to select a Defensive Lineman or Edge rusher first in the 2026 NFL Draft.

• New York Jets: 92% — The most locked-in market in the entire dataset.
• Los Angeles Chargers: 69% — Priced similarly to Kansas City, with edge rusher as the clear top priority.
• Kansas City Chiefs: 67% — Despite sustained roster success, the Chiefs' market reflects a front-seven priority.
• Chicago Bears: 51% — A bare majority favors DL/Edge over offensive line (25%) for Chicago's first pick.

Additional teams with DL/Edge in their top two: Atlanta (37%), Buffalo (41%), Houston (34%), Indianapolis (31%), Minnesota (31%), New England (31%), NY Giants (20%).

Which Teams Are Most Likely to Draft a Cornerback or Safety First in 2026?

Four teams are priced above 50% to select a Cornerback or Safety with their first pick.

• Dallas Cowboys: 60% — One of the clearest secondary investments in the market. Offensive Lineman is a distant second at just 10%.
• Green Bay Packers: 60% — The Packers' secondary has been a recurring draft priority, and the market believes that continues.
• Minnesota Vikings: 61% — Minnesota is the highest-priced CB/Safety market in the dataset.
• Cincinnati Bengals: 44% — Leads their market but falls short of 50%.

New Orleans (45%) and Miami (30%) also have CB/Safety ranked in their top two positional markets.

Which Teams Are Most Likely to Draft a Wide Receiver First in 2026?

Three teams are priced above 35% to select a Wide Receiver with their first pick in 2026.

• New Orleans Saints: 59% — The Saints lead all teams in WR probability. Wide receiver and Cornerback/Safety are the top two options for New Orleans, making them the most receiver-likely team in the first round.
• Los Angeles Rams: 59% — Tied with New Orleans at 59% WR probability. The Rams investing in a receiver first is the single most likely outcome in their market.
• Carolina Panthers: 39% — Wide Receiver edges out Offensive Lineman (30%) as the market leader for Carolina.

Cleveland (35%) has Wide Receiver as the second most likely position behind Offensive Lineman (60%).

Will Any Team Draft a Quarterback in the First Round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

The Las Vegas Raiders are the only team with a meaningful quarterback probability in Kalshi's 2026 NFL Draft markets. The Raiders' QB market sits at 33%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about their direction at the position. No other team in the dataset has a quarterback as a top-two positional option.

This is a significant finding. In recent drafts, multiple teams entered with strong quarterback probabilities. The 2026 market is pricing this as a non-quarterback class at the top of the board for 31 of 32 franchises.

Which Team Has the Most Uncertain Draft Pick in 2026?

The Baltimore Ravens have the most evenly split market in the dataset. Offensive Lineman and Tight End are both priced at exactly 49%, making Baltimore's first pick effectively a coin flip between two very different positions. The Ravens' long history of valuing tight ends, combined with perennial offensive line investment, creates genuine uncertainty that the market cannot resolve.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars are also among the most uncertain markets, with their top two positions separated by a single percentage point (17% vs. 16%).

What Is Kalshi, and How Do You Bet on the NFL Draft There?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform where traders buy and sell contracts on the outcome of real-world events, including NFL Draft results. The contracts pay out $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not. Current market probability is reflected in the price of each contract.

For the NFL Draft, Kalshi offers markets including first position drafted by team, exact pick number, drafted by team, and over/under pick markets. Each team has nine positional outcome markets available.

To trade 2026 NFL Draft markets on Kalshi, use the link and code below. Trading on Kalshi involves financial risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose.

2026 NFL Draft Kalshi Market Analysis: Best Plays

High-Conviction Positions to Confirm

NY Jets DL/Edge (92%): The payout is minimal at 1.01x because the market has priced this near certainty. Its value is as a correlated anchor alongside any Jets-specific draft props, or as a reliable resolution market if you are building a parlay around edge rusher selections in the top ten.

Detroit Lions OL (84%): Same principle. If your draft board has the Lions taking an interior offensive lineman or tackle, this market is a clean confirmation vehicle.

Arizona Cardinals OL (71%): The Cardinals sit at a slightly lower probability, which creates a marginally better payout than Detroit or the Jets while still reflecting strong consensus.

Split Markets Worth Playing

Baltimore Ravens (OL 49% / TE 49%): This is the most actionable split in the dataset. Both positions are priced at exactly 49%, meaning the market has not resolved in either direction. If you have a genuine edge on Baltimore's draft direction based on beat reporter intel or recent mock draft consensus, one side of this market is almost certainly mispriced.

New England Patriots (DL/Edge 31% / TE 14%): The Tight End market pays 6.29x. That is a significant payout on a team whose front office has historically valued the position. If your read has New England going tight end with their first pick, the market is offering a compelling price.

Quarterback Market to Watch

Las Vegas Raiders QB (33%): This is the only quarterback play available across all 32 teams. The Raiders' situation at the position is genuinely unresolved, and 33% represents real value if you believe they use their first pick to address it directly.

2026 NFL Draft Kalshi FAQ

What position is each NFL team most likely to draft first in 2026? According to Kalshi markets, Offensive Lineman is the most common top pick position across the league. Teams including Detroit (84%), Arizona (71%), Cleveland (60%), and Houston (60%) are all priced to go OL first. Defensive Lineman/Edge leads for the Jets (92%), Chargers (69%), and Chiefs (67%). Cornerback/Safety leads for Minnesota (61%), Dallas (60%), and Green Bay (60%).

Which team is the most certain to pick a specific position in the 2026 NFL Draft? The New York Jets. Kalshi prices them at 92% to select a Defensive Lineman or Edge rusher with their first pick, the highest single-position probability across all 32 teams.

Will a team draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft? The Las Vegas Raiders are the only team with a meaningful quarterback market at 33%. No other team has quarterback as a top-two positional option in Kalshi's current markets.

What is the Kalshi promo code for Fantasy Alarm? The Kalshi promo code for Fantasy Alarm readers is ALARMX when signing up.

How does Kalshi determine NFL Draft positional odds? Kalshi's probabilities are set by real traders buying and selling contracts on the platform. The current price of a "Yes" contract on any market reflects the aggregate probability that traders assign to that outcome, updated in real time as new information becomes available.

Which 2026 NFL Draft positional market has the best payout for an upset? The New England Patriots' Tight End market pays 6.29x (14% probability). Las Vegas QB at an unlisted payout (33% probability) and New York Giants Linebacker (1.97x, 28%) are other notable odds-on plays relative to their positional payout.