Updated: Sunday 12/4 at 9:25am ET
Who's ready for NFL Week 13 DFS? This is going to be one heck of a week for all of us as there are very few legitimate DFS bargains or value plays which means we are going to have to be really careful with how we build our cash lineups. You want high-floor, zero-fat lineups for cash and fitting in some of the pricing is going to be difficult, especially when you are looking at NFL DFS tools like the DFS Ownership Forecaster and see how we are projecting high ownership numbers for players like Davante Adams, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs. But please keep in mind that those projections are for large-field GPP tournaments and we only use them as a guideline for cash. This is definitely fixing to be one of those weeks where we need to keep a level head and build balanced lineups for cash. People often panic when they see everyone is using Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce and they fight to get them into their lineups. That tends to lead to more dart-throws in cash games and that's not where we want to live.
We just need to stay focused and maintain our process. There are three games on the slate – Detroit Lions/Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs/Cincinnati Bengals and Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers – that have an over/under above 50, so we will want to make sure we have exposure to those games in cash and then we can see how best to utilize them in GPP tournaments. I've gone through each and every game with a fine-toothed comb, I've discussed the slate in great detail with the rest of the DFS team and I think we've got a fantastic cross-section of players here in the Playbook. I'll probably stay with just the Playbook for my cash games, but don't worry – that DFS Dart Board is coming out as well and we've got some killer punt-plays that should pop for GPP tournament lineups. Let's get to it, #FANation! We've got holiday presents to by for our #Family and that's exactly what we're going to do after this weekend.
Now, before we get to the Playbook players, allow me to remind you what you should be doing leading up this step in your research.
Step 1: Check out the DFS Position Coaches
Step 2: Check out the rest of the relevant DFS content
In addition to the positional coaching pieces, you also have things like the DFS Watch List, where I provide you with a list of players I am looking at throughout the week. We have the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, who also does the Contrarian Corner video and check out the DFS Bargains from Tera Roberts (@ItsTeraTime)
Also, our Master of Tools, Matt Selz (@theselzman), supplies you data junkies with the Weekly Match-Up Report and everyone should also be checking out the WR/CB Match-Up Report from Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance).
Speaking of tools, we have also done some major enhancements with our NFL tools. We continue to crunch the numbers and tweak our algorithms so that our daily fantasy football projections are the best in the industry and that, in turn, has improved things like our Lineup Generator/DFS Optimizer, our DFS Compare tool and even our NFL DFS Ownership Projections. Again, all right here on one site for your convenience.
Step 3: Check the Weather
At this time of year, weather is going to play a very important factor, so always check the weather reports as they can help guide you through which players to use and which ones to avoid. Now, checking in on the NFL Weather Report is a helpful tool, but try not to overreact. Light rain can make the field slick but is unlikely to affect the passing game enough to completely discount quarterbacks and wide receivers. Your biggest concern should come when you see heavy rain/snow and winds blowing in excess of 20 mph. When they say there are 12-15 mph gusts, you can be a little wary of the kicking games and maybe some deep passing, but again, you don't want to totally overreact and you definitely want to check the weather right up until game-time when finalizing your lineups.
Some Week 13 Weather Conditions to Watch:
GB/CHI – 15-20 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 30 mph. Cold but no precipitation.
MIA/SF – Good chance of rain with 10-15 mph winds
Step 4: Make your own list of players
It's real easy to just sit and wait for the Playbook, but as you are doing your research throughout the week, it is important to make notes and list the players who interest you the most. Maybe they end up in the Playbook and maybe they don't. If they're there, then great, it should mean we are honing in on the same things that make him a strong play. If not, maybe you're onto something else that someone overlooked. We aren't perfect and if you uncover something different, maybe you're right. I would be careful of routine groupthink and hype from beat writers, but often times someone will tell me something they saw about their local team that I missed and I am always looking to investigate more if its there. If you do, then say something in our Fantasy Alarm Discord Chat, Talk it out and see what the rest of the #FAmily thinks. That's why the chat is there, isn't it?
With those three steps complete and discussions are in progress, you are ready to look at the Playbook players, make comparisons and finalize your list for lineups, so let's get to it.