Week 1 is here, and before you finalize a single lineup for cash games, GPPs, or your season-long draft prep, take a hard look at the sky. Weather can swing target share, passing volume, and kicker usage just as fast as an injury report, and this week's slate has a real split between clean, dome-protected environments and a handful of spots where wind and rain are going to matter late. Using kickoff-hour forecasts, here is the full breakdown of every Week 1 game and what it means for your DFS builds.

NFL Week 1 Weather Forecast

Wednesday, September 9

  • Patriots at Seahawks, 8:20 PM ET, Lumen Field: 75 degrees at kickoff, 5 mph wind out of the NNW, 0 percent rain chance all night. About as clean as a forecast gets for the season opener.

Thursday, September 10

  • 49ers at Rams, 8:35 PM ET, Melbourne Cricket Ground: 58 degrees at kickoff, 5 mph wind, only a 2 percent rain chance that fades to 1 percent by the fourth quarter. Mild temps, light winds, no rain.

Sunday, September 13 (early window)

  • Falcons at Steelers, 1:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium: 79 degrees at kickoff, 7 mph wind out of the SW, rain sitting at 16 percent early and climbing to 31 percent by the 2 to 4 PM window.
  • Ravens at Colts, 1:00 PM ET, Lucas Oil Stadium: retractable roof closed, no weather impact.
  • Bills at Texans, 1:00 PM ET, NRG Stadium: retractable roof closed, no weather impact.
  • Bears at Panthers, 1:00 PM ET, Bank of America Stadium: 87 degrees at kickoff climbing to 90, light 2 to 5 mph wind, rain starting at 10 percent and jumping to 26 percent in the afternoon.
  • Buccaneers at Bengals, 1:00 PM ET, Paycor Stadium: 84 degrees at kickoff, climbing to 87, 5 mph wind, rain at 16 percent early, rising to 24 percent late.
  • Browns at Jaguars, 1:00 PM ET, EverBank Stadium: 88 degrees at kickoff, 5 to 8 mph wind out of the SE shifting east, rain starting at 15 percent and spiking hard to 60 percent from 2 PM on.
  • Saints at Lions, 1:00 PM ET, Ford Field: fixed dome closed, no weather impact.
  • Jets at Titans, 1:00 PM ET, Nissan Stadium: 89 degrees at kickoff, climbing to 93, 5 mph wind, rain at 8 percent early, rising to 21 percent late.

Sunday, September 13 (afternoon window)

  • Cardinals at Chargers, 4:25 PM ET, SoFi Stadium (fixed canopy, open-air): 79 degrees, 0 percent rain, wind calm at kickoff and topping out around 10 mph by the fourth quarter.
  • Packers at Vikings, 4:25 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium: fixed dome closed, no weather impact.
  • Dolphins at Raiders, 4:25 PM ET, Allegiant Stadium: fixed dome closed, no weather impact.
  • Commanders at Eagles, 4:25 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field: 82 degrees at kickoff dropping to 79, 5 mph wind out of the SW, rain holding steady at 30 percent through the entire game.

Sunday, September 13 (night)

  • Cowboys at Giants, 8:20 PM ET, MetLife Stadium: 76 degrees at kickoff dropping to 72, 5 to 7 mph wind out of the south, rain at 16 to 18 percent throughout.

Monday, September 14

  • Broncos at Chiefs, 8:15 PM ET, Arrowhead Stadium: 79 degrees at kickoff dropping to 73, wind starting at 10 mph and gusting to 12 mph out of the east, rain climbing from 39 percent to 41 percent as the game goes on.

 

 

 

Worst Weather Games in Week 1

The headline act here is Browns at Jaguars. That rain probability rockets from 15 percent at kickoff to a full 60 percent by the 2 PM hour, which is squarely in the middle of the game. Combine that with a wind that shifts out of the SE and settles east at 5 to 8 mph, and this profiles as the shakiest passing environment of the early window.

Broncos at Chiefs on Monday night is the other game to circle. A 39 to 41 percent rain chance holding steady for the entire broadcast, paired with 10 to 12 mph wind out of the east, is enough to put a ceiling on both passing games and on any long field goal attempts in the fourth quarter.

Commanders at Eagles deserves a mention too. The rain number does not spike like Cleveland-Jacksonville, but it also never drops, sitting at a flat 30 percent for the full game. That is a game where a steady drizzle is more likely than a dry fourth quarter.

Falcons at Steelers rounds out the group. It starts manageable at 16 percent but climbs to 31 percent in the same window Pittsburgh and Atlanta will be trying to pull away late.

Best Weather Games in Week 1

Start with the road trip to Australia. 49ers at Rams in Melbourne is about as good as it gets: 58 degrees, 5 mph wind, and a rain chance that never climbs above 2 percent. Mild temps and light winds with no rain in the picture.

Cardinals at Chargers at SoFi is the pick of the Sunday afternoon window. Zero percent rain and dead calm wind at kickoff make this the cleanest outdoor environment of the entire slate, even with the wind ticking up to 10 mph in the second half.

Patriots at Seahawks to open the season also gets a clean bill of health, with 0 percent rain and only a 5 mph breeze at Lumen Field.

And do not forget the roof and dome games. Ravens-Colts, Bills-Texans, Saints-Lions, Packers-Vikings, and Dolphins-Raiders are all played with a closed roof or fixed dome, which takes weather completely off the table regardless of what the outdoor forecast says.

 

 

 

Rain and Snow Impact on Fantasy Football

There is no snow anywhere on this Week 1 slate, which is normal for a September opening weekend, but rain is very much in play. Steady or building rain tends to push offenses away from the deep passing game and toward the run and short, high-percentage throws. That usually means a bump in carries and check-down targets for running backs, while it can cap the ceiling on boundary receivers who rely on contested downfield shots.

The Browns-Jaguars game is the clearest example this week. A rain chance that triples from 15 to 60 percent in the same window as most of the fourth quarter puts real pressure on both quarterbacks to lean on their backs and tight ends. Kicking is the other area to watch closely. Wet footing and a slick ball tend to shave confidence off longer field goal tries, so games like Denver-Kansas City and Washington-Philadelphia, where rain sticks around at 30 to 41 percent for the whole broadcast, are spots to be a little more conservative with kickers attempting anything from outside the 40.

Wind Impact on Fantasy Football

Wind is a much smaller factor across this Week 1 slate than rain is. Nothing on the board approaches the kind of wind speed that typically forces game plans to change, with the highest sustained number coming in Kansas City at 10 to 12 mph out of the east for Monday's Broncos-Chiefs matchup. Most of the other outdoor games are sitting in the calm 0 to 8 mph range, which should not meaningfully affect passing accuracy or field goal range.

That said, Denver-Kansas City is worth flagging simply because it stacks wind on top of rain. A 12 mph wind combined with a 41 percent rain chance is a tougher combination than either factor on its own, and it is the one spot this week where kickers on both sides should get a slight downgrade for anything beyond a chip shot.

 

 

 

NFL Games to Avoid in DFS Because of Weather

If you are trimming passing-game exposure for Week 1, Browns at Jaguars is the top game to fade. The rain spike to 60 percent lands right in the middle of the action, and that is a tough environment to trust a boundary receiver-heavy build or a high-total shootout stack.

Broncos at Chiefs on Monday night is the second game to treat with caution. The combination of a 39 to 41 percent rain chance and 10 to 12 mph wind for the entire broadcast is enough to shade down both passing attacks and to avoid rostering either team's kicker for anything long.

Commanders at Eagles is a lower-priority fade, but the flat 30 percent rain number for all four quarters means this is not a game to force stacks that depend on a clean, dry pocket. Everything else on the slate, from the dome and roof games to the near-perfect forecasts in Seattle, Los Angeles, and Melbourne, should play out without weather being a real factor in how you build your lineups.